From Somalization as collapse to Somalization as recovery

[Deeq A.]

Introduction: Rewriting the Script on State Fragility – A Cautious Optimism

For decades, “Somalization” has been a stark geopolitical shorthand for state failure, conjuring images of unchecked warlordism, pervasive piracy, and the complete erosion of institutional authority. Under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration (2022–present), Somalia is actively attempting to script a powerful counter-narrative: “Somalization as recovery.” This strategic rebranding points to tangible advancements in security, governance, and economic revitalization. However, while acknowledging these gains, this analysis will probe deeper, critically examining the limitations, persistent challenges, and potential downsides alongside the progress, while also incorporating diverse perspectives to provide a more balanced understanding of Somalia’s complex trajectory. The imperative for constructive criticism and national unity remains paramount, echoing the Somali wisdom of “Gaalka dil, gartiisana sii” – “Give the devil his due”, emphasizing the need to acknowledge progress even amidst past or present adversaries. This journey towards recovery necessitates a collective effort, embodied in the proverb “Wadajir bay gacmuhu wax ku gooyaan” – “Many hands make light work.”

1. Security and Counterterrorism: Forging Stability – A Fragile Foundation?

“Total War” Against Al-Shabaab: Initial Gains, Enduring Threat

President Mohamud’s declaration of “total war” against Al-Shabaab has yielded initial territorial gains, with the SNA, backed by local militias and ATMIS, liberating key areas. This has disrupted meaningfully of the group’s revenue streams and operational capabilities. However, the long-term sustainability of these gains remains uncertain. As one security analyst noted, “While the SNA has retaken towns, holding and securing vast rural areas, the group’s traditional strongholds, presents a far greater challenge. Al-Shabaab’s resilience stems from a complex interplay of local grievances, clan dynamics, and its ability to adapt its tactics.” The “clear, hold, and build” strategy faces significant hurdles, as evidenced by Al-Shabaab’s continued presence and influence in regions like South West State, hindering service delivery and the return of displaced populations.

Regional Military Cooperation: A Necessity with Complex Dynamics

Regional military cooperation is crucial in combating the transnational threat of Al-Shabaab. However, these collaborations are not without their complexities. As a civil society leader from Gedo region commented, “While we appreciate the support from neighboring countries, historical tensions and differing national interests can sometimes complicate coordination and create unintended consequences on the ground.” The effectiveness of these partnerships requires continuous evaluation and careful consideration of local contexts.

Lifting of UN Arms Embargo: Enhancing Capacity, Risks of Diversion?

The gradual lifting of the UN arms embargo is intended to bolster Somalia’s national defense capabilities. However, concerns remain regarding the transparent and effective utilization of these resources. An opposition politician voiced caution, stating, “While a stronger army is necessary, robust oversight mechanisms are essential to prevent the diversion of weapons and ensure accountability.” Building a truly self-reliant security apparatus requires not only equipment but also strong governance and anti-corruption measures.

2. Economic and Financial Reforms: Laying the Foundation – Amidst Vulnerabilities

Debt Relief Achievements: A Milestone with Caveats

The completion of the HIPC Initiative is a significant achievement, unlocking access to international financing. However, the sustainability of this progress hinges on prudent fiscal management and the effective allocation of these funds. An economist based in Mogadishu cautioned, “Debt relief provides a fresh start, but it also places a greater responsibility on the government to implement sound economic policies and avoid accumulating unsustainable new debt.” Constructive analysis must focus on how these funds are translated into tangible improvements for the average Somali citizen.

Economic Stabilization: Resilience Under Pressure

The reported GDP growth of 4% in 2024, despite climatic shocks, indicates a degree of economic stabilization. However, this growth remains vulnerable to external factors and has not yet translated into significant job creation or poverty reduction for a large segment of the population. A local entrepreneur in Kismayo noted, “While business registration has become easier, access to capital and reliable infrastructure remain major obstacles for small and medium-sized enterprises.” Inclusive economic policies are crucial for ensuring that growth benefits all Somalis. Data limitations, often relying on government reports, necessitate cautious interpretation and a push for more independent verification.

3. Regional Integration and Diplomacy: Reasserting Influence – Navigating Complex Interests

Admission to the East African Community (EAC): Opportunities and Challenges

Somalia’s EAC admission offers significant opportunities for regional trade and investment. However, realizing these benefits will require careful negotiation and implementation of agreements, considering the potential impact on domestic industries. As an academic specializing in regional integration observed, “EAC membership can be a game-changer, but Somalia needs a clear strategy to leverage its comparative advantages and address potential competitive disadvantages.” Open dialogue involving businesses and civil society is crucial for maximizing the benefits.

Strengthened International Relations: Rebuilding Trust – Amidst Shifting Global Dynamics

Somalia’s increased engagement on the international stage, including its UNSC seat candidacy, signifies a rebuilding of trust and partnerships. However, the impact of international interventions in Somalia has been complex and sometimes contradictory. A former UN official commented, “The international community has played a crucial role, but a lack of coordination and a focus on short-term fixes have sometimes undermined long-term stability. A more coherent and Somali-led approach is essential.” Scrutiny of international engagements must consider their long-term impact on national sovereignty and development.

4. Governance and Institutional Development: Rebuilding – While Facing Political Headwinds

Rebuilding State Institutions: Progress and Persistent Weaknesses

Efforts to rebuild state institutions are underway, with initiatives like the digital ID system and SBRS showing promise in modernizing governance. However, these reforms face challenges related to capacity building, resource constraints, and resistance from entrenched interests. A civil servant in Baidoa stated, “New systems are being introduced, but effectively implementing them across all levels of government requires significant investment in training and infrastructure.” Ensuring inclusivity and addressing regional disparities in institutional development remain critical.

Constitutional Reforms: A Divisive Path Forward

The ongoing constitutional review process is a critical juncture. While amendments like the women’s quota is positive step, the proposed shift to a presidential system and changes to party laws are deeply contentious. Opposition leaders argue that these changes centralize power and undermine the inclusivity of the political process, potentially reversing the gains of the Third Republic. One prominent opposition figure stated, “The government’s unilateral push for these fundamental changes without broad consensus risks fracturing the fragile political settlement and could lead to parallel administrations if our concerns are not addressed.” The absence of a unified international stance on these reforms further exacerbates the risk of political instability. The government’s perceived “winner-takes-all” strategy in pursuing these changes is a significant concern.

5. International Recognition: Acknowledging Progress – A Call for Continued Reform

Africa Leadership Award 2025: Recognition and Responsibility

The Africa Leadership Award 2025 acknowledges President Mohamud’s efforts. However, this recognition should serve as further impetus for inclusive governance and addressing the concerns raised about political polarization.

Conclusion: A Nation at a Crossroads – The Urgent Need for Unity and Inclusivity

Somalia’s journey from the depths of “Somalization as collapse” towards “Somalization as recovery” demonstrates significant progress in key areas. However, this progress remains fragile and faces considerable headwinds, particularly concerning political polarization and the perceived centralization of power. The urgent proposal for national unity, emphasizing a return to the 2012 Provisional Constitution, embracing inclusive governance, seeking broad political agreement, and upholding the framework of the Third Republic, is not merely a suggestion but a necessity to safeguard the hard-won gains. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has a crucial opportunity to steer Somalia towards a more stable and prosperous future by prioritizing dialogue, consensus, and genuine inclusivity. The international community must also play a more unified and constructive role in supporting this process. As Somalia continues to build a better future, the wisdom of “Gaalka dil, gartiisana sii” reminds all stakeholders to acknowledge progress fairly, while the understanding that “Wadajir bay gacmuhu wax ku gooyaan” underscores that national recovery requires a united effort. The narrative of “Somalization as recovery” can only be truly realized through a shared commitment to inclusive governance and a collective effort to overcome the deep-seated political divisions that threaten to undermine the nation’s hard-won progress.

About the Author

Prof. Abdinasir Ali Osman is a highly respected senior researcher, consultant, and trainer with over 35 years of experience in the humanitarian, development, and institutional capacity-building sectors. His career spans across the private, public, and non-profit sectors, where he has played a critical role in shaping policies, building institutions, and implementing large-scale programs in Somalia and beyond.

As a leading expert in humanitarian, governance, peacebuilding, and development, Prof. Osman has dedicated his life to advancing local capacity, institutional resilience, and sustainable development. His work has influenced policy decisions, empowered young professionals, and strengthened governance frameworks in fragile and conflict-affected environments.

You can reach him through email: ipi2024@hotmail.com