Ethiopia deliberates “a course of action” on maritime MoU “without alienating Mogadishu or Hargeisa”

[Deeq A.]

Abiy Ahmed urged senior ministers of Prosperity Party to discuss the options for making a decision on the maritime Memorandum of Understanding without alienating Mogadishu or Hargeisa.

Hargeisa (PP News Desk) — Abiy Ahmed, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, this week urged senior ministers of Prosperity Party to discuss the options for making a decision on the maritime Memorandum of Understanding he signed with the President of the secessionist administration in north Somalia. Abiy wants “a win-win solution” without Ethiopia suffering the consequences for violating the territorial integrity of Somalia or compelling the government of Somaliland administration to declare the MoU null and void if Addis Ababa does not grant Somaliland a diplomatic recognition.

“A naval base in northern Somalia coast will wean Ethiopia off reliance on Djibouti. It will become an economic bonanza for Ethiopians and a major political capital for Abiy Ahmed. The MoU does not bar Ethiopia from using the base a commercial port” said a member of Kulmiye, the ruling party of Somaliland administration.

Several senior Kulmiye MPs have expressed reservations about the illegal maritime MoU. “What guarantees does Somaliland have about the usefulness of its port once landlocked Ethiopia attain direct access to sea and its import and export activities will reasonably pass through the acquired port? Under this deal, Somaliland will automatically trade off its potential prosperity and shoot itself in the foot” argued Abdirahman Yusuf Artan, a Kulmiye MP, in an article in Somtribune news website.

Ethiopia seeks an outcome where to gain access to sea “without alienating Mogadishu or Hargeisa”. With the Federal Government of Somalia Ethiopia signed a defence pact that contains maritime security articles in December 2023, three weeks before the signing of the maritime MoU that Abiy Ahmed signed with the the President of Somaliland administration Muse Bihi Abdi.

President Bihi desires to hear a statement that Ethiopia recognises political institutions of Somaliland administration, a position that falls short of the recognition requirement that Hargeisa sees as the basis for formalising the maritime MoU. Such a statement could pay electoral dividends for Bihi, who is seeking reelection for a second term in office. Waddani, the main opposition party in Hargeisa, avoids to make the MoU an electoral issue.

Ethiopia has a plenty of options to exploit. One of them is the agreement between Somaliland administration and the Somali Federal Government which includes economic development clauses that are open to interpretation and on which Somaliland banks to defend the rationale for signing the maritime MoU with Ethiopia to gain diplomatic recognition. “The search for diplomatic recognition through leasing a coastal district of the Federal Republic of Somalia defeats the purpose of secession” said a retired lawyer in Hargeisa.

Ethiopia toned down the rhetoric on access to sea through the maritime MoU. Reconciling Somaliland’s political aspirations for a republic status with Ethiopia’s economic goal of securing permanent sea access presents a significant geopolitical puzzle that defies solution.

© Puntland Post, 2024

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