MoheyedinIssa

Kenya supports Egypt’s position in Ethiopian dam rift

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Kenya supports Egypt’s “positive stance” on the disputed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), President Uhuru Kenyatta told Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi in a phone call on Tuesday.

El-Sisi’s spokesman Bassam Rady said the president received a phone call from his Kenyan counterpart in which they exchanged developments on the dam after the collapse of Washington-mediated talks between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan last month. 

Kenyatta described the Egyptian stance as one that comes out of “sincere political will,” according to the Egyptian statement.

Addis Ababa did not attend the last round of US-sponsored talks on the dam in February, citing the need for more time for further domestic consultations.

Only Egypt has initialed the resulting agreement, drafted by the US, on the filling and operation of the dam, with Ethiopia and Sudan both declining to sign it.

Over the past weeks, Egyptian officials have delivered messages on developments related to the GERD to Gulf and European partners, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, France and the European Union, in an attempt to seek support.

Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry began an African tour this week to garner further support on the matter.

Shoukry made stops in Burundi and South Africa and is set to visit Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, Niger and Rwanda. 
 

 

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Oodweyne   
5 hours ago, MoheyedinIssa said:

Kikuyu led Kenyan elites are scrambling to find new ways to confront the new Ethiopia led by Mr Abiye Ahmed.  

 

It's actually other way round. Which means, it's Mr Abby Ahmed who is trying to welsh-out of the "historical understanding" between Kenya and Somalia in what they perceived as the constant need to keep Somalia and her obsession with land's issue in check. Which is the reason they have a "defense pact" that goes pack to 1964.

Of course, it's good for Somalia that they seemed to have fallen out from being on the same page when it comes to trying to "contained Somalia". Which means their old game of playing at Somalia's expense that old routine of a "bad cop, good cop" whereby Ethiopia was the "bad cop" and Kenya was the "good cop", even if both of them actually wanted all the same to "squeeze" Somalia, is almost now over by the looks of things.

However, on the other hand, it seems that Mr Abby Ahmed is getting bit greedy and he thinks through Mr Farmaajo he can have Somalia as his "retained woman" alone without sharing her "spoils" (as it were) with Mr Kenyatta and his Kenyan's elites.

In other words, to use a bit of a "vulgar language" in here, one can say that in so far historical experience of Kenya and Ethiopia is concern, particularly ever since 1991 and after the collapse of the central State of Somalia at that time, they thought they had in Somalia (or had enjoyed from her) what the French call a "ménage à trois" in a strategical sense of that word.

Which means, Somalia, was in a "three-way-arrangement" with these two states, in which she was the partner "servicing" the other two, and doing it so to their hearts's contents.

And now, Mr Abby Ahmed, seemed to have cottoned on to the novel idea of having, exclusively, Somalia, on his own term without his other partner getting any of the "goods" (as it were).

Hence, the reason Mr Kenyatta is having a bit of a mighty tiff and bit of a huff in here, since he isn't getting any "action" from what he thought was his right to expect such things from the previous "three-partners-sleeping-arrangement" in which Kenya and Ethiopia have had with Somalia. Or at least that was how they perceived things to be based on ever since 1991.

And that is the reason he is out to make the political life of Mr Abby Ahmed that wee bit of a tad difficulty with his plan of "buddying up" (and befriending) the likes of Mr El-Sisi fellow of Egypt. And in particularly so long as Mr Ahmed in turn keeps on insisting that Somalia is his alone to "enjoy" it in-terms of the sole and the "alleged goods" she seems to be laden with (as it were). 

********

NB:- Sorry about the "vulgar language" in here. It seems that sometimes the earthly and the very unpolished language could get to the heart and the gist of any discussion more than a verbally decorative sentences could do justice to that sort of debate. 

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4 hours ago, Oodweyne said:

 

 

NB:- Sorry about the "vulgar language" in here. It seems that sometimes the earthly and the very unpolished language could get to the heart and the gist of any discussion more than a verbally decorative sentences could do justice to that sort of debate. 

No!

You just get a sick kick out of it.

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You missed the plot.

This is all the American advise to Abiy.

Look like/act like a nationalist and anti Arab since the Tigray are still alive and can at least scatter your forces.

Don't risk being next Meles for the damn dam.

Egypt is demanding 7 years Abiy has already moved to 4 years from the 3 years that Tigray had insisted and the Egyptians had to look for Amxara Oromo groups, since militarily was impossible for them.

Somalia said NO, Somaliland said NO, Sudan of course said NO, Kenya said NO, South Sudan had fallen under Egyptian influence and they are paying the price for it. Eritrea knew he would be preemptively attacked before the Egyptian bases are expanded. For Egyptians the military option was very uncertain to extremely risky.

Egypt was also sacred what Israel would do, to what length it would go with Tigray, since Netanyahoo had made statement "military confrontation is unthinkable and impossible, but I can be a go between and find a solution".


Abiy will declare few weeks or months from now saying he stood firm against Egypt and brought them down to 5 years and case closed, "we are brothers" we drink the same water we grow plants from same silt/soil...etc.

The Amxara don't care about the dam. They were actually against it when Tigray were in power. Even Mengistu was against the dam and he said its Tigray conspiracy to start war with Egypt.

Emotionally only Tigray and Afar care, since they have done almost all the fighting with Egypt through out history.

Developmentally, financially most Ethiopians care since 6GW is a lot of power, better than oil which oil comes with death, war, corruption..etc.

Abiy is just pretending. If America, UAE, Egypt brought him to power...what do you think he will do.

Kenya boy is excellent with Abiy.

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Oodweyne   

Che,

Are we doing a bit of a "projection" in here mate? After all, as a proud and a former card-carrying supporter of Al-Shabaab, you could be reliably thought of to be much closer in getting all sort of "sick kick" out of all the sexual perversion of the kind his warped imagination could only conjure up.

And if that is the case in here, then see to it to wash your head out of such things. For they are no use to us in here. Or failing that, then see to it that the local FBI branch out there in Boston doesn't get the "whiff" of your old perversion and the predilection of that sort.

Given that they could easily haul you in for a "lengthy conversation" (which is polite euphemism way of saying haul you in for a bit of a "bone-chilling interrogation" in a dimly-lighted room). Particularly in-terms of them asking you as to when was the last time you stopped "fantasizing" deeply about of having some sort of a seedy "conjugal acts" with all sort of "under-age girls". And did so like most teeming misfits Al-Shabaab of this world do, both in their sleeps and while they are wide awake.

So lets have less of your "projection" around here, mate. since SOL is an open forum, in which many are liable to read it.

**********

Old_Observer,

I think that was rather strained argument on your part, my friend. Or at least it could be said that it was something that stretches credulity into a breaking point. And by that I mean, granted, Mr Abby Ahmed knows that Uncle Sam (US) had effectively sided with Egypt on the Nile issue. And therefore he knows he can't get it away with silly talk of saying that US's will not be putting its "heavy thump" on the scale at the side of the Egypt. But that is far from the idea of saying that Mr Abby Ahmed is in actual "cahoot" with Egypt and with those who wishes to deny Ethiopia her right to use her Dam and the water of the Nile's river.

I do understand that as a supporter of the former Tigre's regime of Ethiopia, you will be liable to say that devil-in-hell has some kind of "connection" to the present regime in Ethiopia. But, please, bro. go easy on the "conspiracies" around here. For that makes you sound like the some of the Right-wing's nut-jobs they have in some of the Red-State Americana who thinks, with a straight-face, that some sort of "world-order-globalist-outfit", which in turn are centered on at the UN's head-quarters in New-York, are responsible for this Corona-virus epidemic outbreak.

And as to what Mr Uhuru Kenyatta is all about, or he is doing in here, as I said it already, it's his way of getting "even" with Mr Abby Ahmed, who, according to Mr Kenyatta, had welshed-out of a "strategical deal" in which Ethiopia and Kenya have had with each other in regards to Somalia.       

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3 hours ago, Oodweyne said:

Che,

Are we doing a bit of a "projection" in here mate? After all, as a former card-carrying supporter of Al-Shabaab, you could be reliably thought of to be much closer in getting "sick kick" out of all the sexual perversion of the kind his warped imagination could conjure up.

And if that is the case in here, then see to it to wash your head out of the gutter of such things. Or at least see to it that the local FBI branch out there in Boston doesn't get the "whiff" of your old political predilection.

Given that they could easily haul you in for a "lengthy conversation" (which is polite euphemism of a "bone-chilling interrogation" in a dimly-lighted room). Particularly as to when was the last time you stopped "fantasizing" about of having seedy "conjugal acts" with all sort of "under-age girls", like most teeming misfits Al-Shabaab of this world do, both in their sleeps and while they are wide awake. So, lets have less of your "projection" around here, mate. since, its a open forum, in which many are liable to read it.

**********

Old_Observer,

I think that was rather strained argument on your part. Or at least it was something that stretches credulity into a breaking point. And by that I mean, granted, that Mr Abby Ahmed knows that Uncle Sam (US) had effectively sided with Egypt on the Nile issue. And therefore he knows he can't get it away with silly talk of saying that US's will not be putting its thump on the scale at the side of the Egypt. But that is far from the idea of saying that Mr Abby Ahmed is in "cahoot" with Egypt and with those who wishes to deny Ethiopia her right to use her Dam.

I do understand that as a supporter of the former Tigre's regime of Ethiopia, you will be liable to say that devil-in-hell has some kind of "connection" to the present regime in Ethiopia. But, please, bro. go easy on the "conspiracies" around here. For that makes you sound like the some of the Right-wing's nut-jobs they have in Red-State Americana who think, with a straight-face, that some sort of "world-order-globalist-outfit", which in turn are centered on the UN are responsible for this Corona-virus outbreak.

And as to what Mr Uhuru Kenyatta is all about, or he is doing in here, as I said it already, it's his way of getting "even" with Mr Abby Ahmed, who, according to Mr Kenyatta, had welshed-out of a "strategical deal" in which Ethiopia and Kenya have had with each other.       

Oodweyne,

Lets simplify the interests and how every side goes about achieving their interests regarding GERD:

 I might have a bias towards one or another group as I always have bias for those who have self respect like Ghelleh. My preference is issue based.

Its also cultural of generally siding with the underdog.

One fact is Abiy is not going to die for GERD, let alone for its schedule of filling.

Sudan's interest is with the Dam, economic, strategic.etc But if the owner Ethiopia stance is shaky Sudan can afford to side with Egypt without changing its pronouncements.

As for Kenya, the issue of Nile is Uganda not Ethiopia. If Egyptians who have more influence in South Sudan side with Kenya, then Kenya will side with them.

 

Abiy and the Kikuyu have little competition going with America. The Kenyan's have UK in their camp come rain or shine. The worst UK can do against them is stay quiet or be neutral on some cases.

America had a drone base in Ethiopia, which was moved out during Hailemariam, but the Tigray did not want it used on Yemen. The same reason Ghelleh had in resisting that base. This base is now in Kenya, expanded, modernized..shiny.

Abiy and Kikuyu competition is actually for America not for Somalia.

Abiy hands are also tied as you know with the tribes in Jubaland. This is not like SWS where he can do as he wanted or asked by his Framaajo and others. A lot of calculation goes to Jubaland.

Kenya is more restrained country than Somalia or Ethiopia. It has better history of governance than either of them. Ethiopia has size and since 20th century Colonialists have got their preferred group in power.

 

There is no conspiracy or stretching here. These are all factual interests and behaviors of the groups/regimes.

 

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Oodweyne   

Old_Observer,

I am not really trying to be facetious in here, my friend, but I must say that truly what you just written up here is akin to sort of tiring argument I would easily make when I am that minded to take the piss at other people's argument.

Which means I would proceed to write reams and reams of all sort of open-ended line of talk that has no central attachment to argument at hand. It's way of confusing others with lots of "side-bar assertions" that in turn has no tangible proof to back them all up in the first place. And at the same time still has no "causal connection" of a readily observable kind to any of the central argument that is being debated.

What I mean by that is this: 

Firstly, I readily concede that Mr Abby Ahmed may not see the GERD project as his "final-hill-to-which-to-die-on" (as Yanks would say). Which means if he could get a good deal with Egypt (who also seems to have US's Treasury as her talkative lawyer right behind her), then, I would concede that Mr Abby Ahmed will not be like Mr Meles Zenawi, who thought of this project as the "pride of Ethiopia", who therefore would then have driven a hard bargain of the kind Mr Abby Ahmed may not be in the "market" to go get it. All of that I accept.

However where I part company with you is this notion that says, or at least it insinuates, that Mr Abby Ahmed will sell Ethiopia's interests on the cheap. Or he will do even on the bank of the river Nile at the behest of Egypt (and at the behest of her patron, namely the Yanks, who as I said it already is minded to play a lawyer for the Al-Sisi's regime in Cairo). That is where I disagree with you.

Secondly, in so far Kenya and Ethiopia are concern, it's true that both of these States are determined to be the "first port of call" for the US's interests in this Horn-of-Africa (HoA) region of ours. So in that sense, there is a bit of a "Zero-Sum-Game" of a strategical kind that seems to be going on here between them. All of that is granted from my end. But all of this was also what was on the card ever since the US came on heavily in this region ever since the 9/11 and the Great War or Terror (GWOT) got going from Washington's side.

Hence, all throughout that time, these two states of Ethiopia and Kenya never had lost in touch with what they share in common, even when they were ":competing", fiercely, for the "strategical affection" of Uncle Sam (US) along the way.

Consequently, what change recently was that for the first time ever, Kenya and Ethiopia, saw their interests in Somalia through different lights. Which means, to Kenya's view of its interests, they come to the conclusion that this current clique in power in Villa Somalia are to the long term harm of Kenya's larger interests in the Horn and in Somalia. And, naturally, Mr Abby Ahmed, currently sees Villa Somalia as the nearest a nation can have or can make another nation as its "retained woman" (of a strategical kind).

And that is the reason these two states of Kenya and Ethiopia are falling out, with added bonus of seeing Mr Abby Ahmed sending his army to Somalia just to "subdue" any of the internal forces that are in opposition to Villa Somalia. Whilst, on the other hand, Mr Kenyatta and Kenya are openly siding with Mr Madobe and Jubbaland's militia in Kismayo even if Villa Somalia will like nothing better than to see the likes of Mr Abby Ahmed sending his army there as well. 

All in all, the game of the horn is very far from this "one-dimensional approach" in which you are alleging to it. Which means, it has many "secondary variables" other than a this version of a straight forward diplomatic competition in which each State has it with the other one in-terms of which of them will be closer to the bosom of the Uncle Sam (US). Which is what your argument amounts to if we were to strip it down to its bare bones of it.

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Oodweyne   

Here is how Kenya's mouth piece sees this issues.

Battle for Nile waters spills over to East African capitals

image.png.96bd6afd53cdbc8cd3b3632f502295a2.png

Kenya has been thrust into the competing interests of Ethiopia and Egypt, who are jostling for regional support for a decisive agreement on a dam being built on the Nile.

The tussle, which kicked off two weeks ago, represents the latest haggling over the use of the Nile waters, a perennial discussion that has lasted 60 years.

At the centre of the debate is the Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Ethiopia, which Egypt sees as a threat to its water source. But it has roped in riparian countries like Kenya, who form a group aggrieved by a colonial-era treaty that gave Egypt massive rights and control over the waters of the Nile.

NILE BASIN

Sources said Ethiopia was tapping this grievance to seek support from Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda and other countries in the Nile basin affected by the old treaty. The Basin includes 11 countries. Egypt, in turn, is seeking to divide countries in the eastern Africa region and roil any joint statements.

That fight manifested this week when President Uhuru Kenyatta reportedly promised his Egyptian counterpart Abdelfattah al-Sisi Nairobi’s support.


Bassam Rady, al-Sisi’s spokesman, told Egyptian media that President Kenyatta had told his counterpart the Egyptian stand on the GERD was a result of “sincere political will”.

The revelations by Egypt were, however, clarified by Nairobi a day later, with officials insisting Kenya supports an appropriate agreement reached by negotiations between African countries themselves.

Officials who spoke to the Sunday Nation said Kenya sees sharing of water volumes of the Nile as one aspect that must be addressed through the African Union and not external bodies as the GERD issue has been negotiated, in order to benefit all riparian states.

The GERD, a $4.5 billion (Sh450 billion) project on the Nile’s main tributary in Ethiopia (the Blue Nile), was supposed to boost electricity generation once full, producing up to 6.5GW of power. But the project, largely funded by Ethiopians themselves, has seen opposition from Egypt, which argues that the programme to fill it might deny Cairo its “historical and rightful share” of the water.

NEGOTIATIONS

President Kenyatta’s call with the Egyptian leader had followed a cancellation of a trip by Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry due to the Covid-19 outbreak. But the Ethiopians had sent President Sahle-Work Zewde to Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda to “brief” the leaders on the negotiations between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt on GERD, which Addis Ababa says “collapsed”.

On March 12, the Ethiopian leader warned there could be problems if any contentious agreement on the Nile was implemented.

“The President also underscored Ethiopia’s commitment to continue working with all Nile Basin countries, and to ensure that only treaties that are properly entered into by the countries will apply to the basin,” a dispatch from Addis Ababa said of Mrs Sahle-Work’s visit in Nairobi.

In turn, President Kenyatta called for a review of agreements on the Nile to take into consideration the “needs of its increasing populations”.

“The President (Kenyatta) also emphasised the importance of ensuring equitable and reasonable utilisation of natural resources. The two leaders agreed on the importance of reaching a resolution in the spirit of African Solutions to African Problems and concurred on the need for the African Union to support the countries reach a win-win outcome.”

At a meeting with Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni on March 13, the Ethiopian leader was told Uganda supports equitable distribution of the Nile waters.

“The two leaders recognised the strategic importance of the Nile for all the riparian countries, the livelihood of their peoples and the need to solve any issues among the countries.”


President Museveni even called for “frank” discussions on the Nile, possibly through a summit by riparian countries, according to a statement from their meeting. In Rwanda, President Paul Kagame also supported renegotiations to allow riparian countries more rights and control on their natural resources.

HISTORICAL RIGHTS

Egypt’s strategy on the Nile has been to seek support of blocs. A fortnight ago, Cairo tabled a motion to the Arab League which endorsed a communique supporting Egypt’s historical rights and urged for a rejection of any decisions that could alter or threaten the Egyptian share of the Nile.

Sudan, a member of the League, refused to endorse the declaration, warning such a move could risk cooperation between the League and Ethiopia, and did not serve its national interests. Somalia, though, endorsed the declaration. Last week Somali Prime Minister Hassan Khaire rushed to Addis Ababa to clarify Mogadishu’s stance on “horn of Africa integration”, interpreted to mean a change of mind from what a “junior officer” had voted.

Later, a statement from Addis Ababa said Somalia and Djibouti respectively called for bilateral and win-win solutions.

The dam itself became the central point of contention after negotiations facilitated by the US Treasury collapsed two weeks ago. Ethiopia had skipped the final negotiations, saying it wanted more time.

Washington had tabled a draft agreement and asked the three countries to sign. Cairo initialled on it, which in diplomatic parlance signals an end to negotiations. Addis Ababa was furious.

Ethiopian Ambassador to Kenya Meles Alem Tekea told the Sunday Nation the issue on GERD should be seen as a beneficial project for all the three countries, and that Egypt should not force through its stances.

“If there was justice in the world, then Sudan and Egypt should have contributed for the completion of the dam as they also benefit,” he said on Friday. “The dam will boost the flow of water by reducing annual flooding and siltation, which affects Sudan most. Besides, all the three countries stand a chance to utilise the electricity produced at a reasonable price.”

Some observers, though, think the Nile debate could be a chance for riparian countries to settle scores among themselves by supporting Egypt, especially if they disagree on other matters.

An assessment by the International Crisis Group this week said the three countries could reach an amicable deal if they appointed a joint arbiter.

*************

Source:- 

WWW.HIIRAAN.COM

Kenya has been thrust into the competing interests of Ethiopia and Egypt, who are jostling for regional support for a decisive agreement on a dam being built on the Nile.

 

 

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