The calm before Somalia's Great Storm

[Burn Notice]

THE CALM BEFORE SOMALIA’S GREAT STORM

by DISSIDENT NATION on JULY 17, 2012 in POLITICS with NO COMMENTS

 

At this moment, Somalia is only matched by the likes of Syria and Mali when it comes to the intensity of the pressure being placed on them to deliver a specific set of results. In a few weeks time, Somalia is expected to have a new president, a new constitution, and the framework for which it will operate until the foreseeable future.

 

The resulting conclusion that is to be drawn in the short time remaining will decide if Somalia makes a smooth return to the international community or if its nightmare only assumes a quieter form. Time will tell. And time is just four more weeks and a few days. Everyone in Somalia is quiet and even its most eccentric personalities are quietly hidden. The conflict has died down and the rhetoric tuned out. Every soul in this nation of some ten million is holding his or her breath, waiting for the final countdown. And we now review what is really going on in this most quiet of moments in Somalia’s modern history.

 

 

Mogadishu

 

The capital, having experienced a rare attack just a day ago is undergoing a tight security check. Every inch of Mogadishu and its environs for miles and miles in every direction have been secured and the African Union peacekeepers have halted their advance on Al-Shabaab strongholds to focus their attention on Mogadishu. The coming week will mark another milestone in Somalia’s turbulent return to normalcy; elders from across the nation will vote on the new constitution of the Somali Republic.

 

After weeks of wrangling, the elders of Mogadishu’s most prominent clan voiced their support for the progress of the voting process and all is going as planned. Though the constitution is unclear about Mogadishu’s status, key Somali leaders have reiterated that it will without question remain the nation’s capital. Also unclear is the federalism statute for which the transition was to mark.

 

Somaliland

 

Fighting in the disputed eastern regions have come to a lull as a drought ravages the Somaliland interior. President Silanyo is expected to continue talks with Somali president Sharif Sheikh Ahmed. The most controversial piece of news out of Somaliland in the past few weeks has been the unlawful imprisonment of a high-ranking traditional elder.

 

Puntland

 

After a year of success against Somalia’s pirate scourge, Puntland was unlawfully scrutinized for its piracy program despite successes. For a brief moment the state looked to have lost funding for its crucial anti-piracy program but later received a guarantee from the UAE that funding of up to $2 million a month would continue. Since the June conference on piracy in Dubai, Puntland has continued its pursuit of pirates, now on the tail a gang of kidnappers linked with a pirate cartel based in neighboring Galmudug State.

 

Earlier this week, Puntland’s representative elders voted unanimously to push forth the final constitutional voting process to be held in Mogadishu, and some have already arrived. They are to meet with the rest of the 825 members of the voting committee and thrust Somalia forward into the next phase.

 

The Puntland leadership has been quiet for the past few months, with President Farole returning in recent weeks from a nearly two-month trip abroad, to locations in Djibouti, the United Arab Emirates, India, and elsewhere seeking anti-piracy assistance and development partnerships. The region’s attention-getting energy exploration program has also been quiet as of late, with only the heads of the companies giving statements of progress. Confidence from the oil companies is at its highest in recent weeks, and the drilling phase at the second well is coming to a close.

 

Somalis abroad have expressed to us that the Puntland leader is hoping to use a positive report on the exploration to secure better footing for the region in the coming political phase. Puntland’s own 14th anniversary is coming up on August 1st and preparation for the big day has begun in the region and abroad.

 

Other regions

 

AMISOM forces have declared the districts surrounding Mogadishu as safe zones and Kenya’s forays into Somalia continue to cause bloodshed near the border–though often on Kenya’s side lately. Since pirates were kicked out of Puntland they have regrouped along the shores of the neighboring districts in Galmudug.

 

DissidentNation.com

 

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