President HSM had inticed the opposition to extend his term.

[galbeedi]

 

After a couple of roands of talks between the opposition coalition called " National Salvation Council" and president Hassan Sheikh Mohamuud, it seems that the talks might continue to the next round after all. Despite some gridlocks in terms of the changes made to certain chapters of the constitution by HSM, the opposition has been enticed to listen to the latest offers from the president. Some of them are evn eager to continue.

President HSM had offered the Mogadishu based opposition to appoint the prime minister among their ranks and form the next government. This new government will fight Al-shbaab and prepare for the so called one person one vote. Reliable sources indicate that the plan of the president is to drag these negotitions until late December and form the cabinet as late as the begining of Feneruary 2026. The first task HSM is demanding from the new government is to fight Al-shabaab, prepare and pass some constitutional amendments through the parliament and get ready for national election in the summer of 2027. That is two years from now. Since he couldn't extend his term due to historical precedents he himself co-authored in 2022, he is manuevering to extend his term by enticing the hungry opposition who might have different reasons to restle the premiership from HSM.  Some of them might be even dreaming to implement similar coups former premier Rooble used against Farmaajo.

These political moves are unusual in terms recent history of Somali leaders. Most of the time they  try to have their cakes and it or hit the wall and come back to reality. By giving a seat at the table, HSM is thinking out of the box by plotting to extend his term as much as two more years. He even jokes by saying that he might not run for the next election. I am sure there is no free political lunch in Somalia and the president is playing his cards to achieve some major goals.

Now, let us observe the political reality on the ground. Despite loud pronouncements from the president by repeating one person one vote, the chances of that happening in the near future is very law. At the moment Al-shbaab is knocking the gates of Jowhar and are constantly harrassing army bases in both Hirshabeelle and Galmudug.  Few years ago during the opposition challenge against president Farmaajo, HSM has talked about the inevitability of the Halane tent ( Teendhadu waa lama Huraan).  While the last selection was the worst, especially how the mebers of parliament were selected , no one has any guarantee how the final vote of the Teendhada wil end. For the last three terms it has produced unexpected surprises and HSM is worried about the Teendho.

Now let us focus who would be the winners of the premiership

The two likely premiers from the D block are Cumar Sharmaarke and Saacid Shirdoon from Gedo region. Both of these men have different qualities that HSM might prefer in terms of its application. Mr. Sharmaarke is very quiet manager. He has an  extensive expereince in terms managing election while disagreeing with his boss. in 2016, he co-habited with HSM well while even running against the president. unlike most Somalis, he is not emotional who calculates subtly. He could disarm the main opposition to HSM , namely Cabdulaahi Daniand even dismantle the so called fedral system which has run out its time. This appointment might even serve well the needs of the opposition in general.

On the other hand,  Saacid Shirdoon doesn't have the managerial and political expereince of Sharmaarke, but  he could serve the president to have huge impact in Jubbaland.  Saacid is very calm and respected by Somalis in general. His last stint as premier ended early with bad results. People say the only reason Saacid could be appointed is the case of Jubbaland. The plan is for Hamza to vacate the premiership and relocate to Gedo first and then takeover Jubbaland within the next two years. In this case Saacid will be used by HSM to dismantle his main rival in Jubbaland. Most opposition members do not like this move which mainly serves HSM. In any case, by giving the opposition a big seat in the table, HSM is dismanteling the Mogadishu based opposition. 

After these coaltions joins the government, the real opposition will be Farmaajo and C/laahi Dani.THese two men are formidable challenge to the so called Badbaado Qaran and HSM. Dani has a base as the leader of Puntland and Farmaajo has the largest support and flowing among all Somali politicans. Another advatage that might help these duo is the reality on the ground. If we assume the new government is in place early next year, the chances of defeating Al-shabaab and holding national election is very slim. Before they even defeat Al-shabaab, they have to reclaim the recent lost territories. Maxaas, Aadan Yabaal and Maqokori might need at least six months to organize the forces, deploy them and dislodge from Al-shbaab before taking over new towns.

My prediction is that in order to implement universal voting, both the opposition and HSM could add their term two more years from 2026 and hold election in 2028. Also, another big fish leader who is interfering the Somali election from his tiny shit hole is Cumar Geelle. He is supposed to hold elections in 2026, but people in Djibouti will be informed soon that Geelle is about to retire in 2028 and he will be spending the next two years to find someone from his family.

President HSM had also said " Qabyo nikeedaa Dhameystira". So, he might want two years to both satsfy his boss Geelle and see how thewind blows for the next two years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

Xasan Socdaal dhul xatooyo ayuu ku dhameysanayaa intaa yar u hartay. Kheyre will not allow him to extend his regime. Tolkiisa isbaaro ayee soo dhiganayaan Siigaale ilaa Sayidka. Shariifka, supported by xirtii Macalin Nuur wiilkiisa, will join too.

Xasan hadduu xoog ku sii joogo rabo waala arki doonaa toban bilood from now.