Saaxiib daneyste ah – Sidee Ruushka u khiyaanay Iran xilli ay dagaal kula jirto Israel?

[Deeq A.]

Moscow (Caasimada Online) – Bilowgii sannadkan, Madaxweynaha Ruushka Vladimir Putin ayaa ku qaabilay dhiggiisa Iran, qasriga Kremlin-ka si ay u kala saxiixdaan heshiis cusub oo istiraatiiji ah, kaasoo lagu xoojinayay xiriirka sii xoogeysanaya ee labada dal – kuwaasoo tobankii sano ee u dambeeyay isku dayayay inay wiiqaan nidaamka caalamiga ah ee uu Mareykanku hoggaamiyo.

Hase yeeshee, in ka badan usbuuc oo duqeymo xooggan ah oo Israel iyo Mareykanku ka fuliyeen gudaha Iran kadib, iskaashigaas istiraatiijiga ah wax faa’iido muuqata uma keenin Tehran.

Isniintii, markii Putin la kulmay wasiirka arrimaha dibadda Iran, Abbas Araghchi, wuxuu si wajiga-qabow ah uga hadlay weerarrada Mareykanka, isagoo ku tilmaamay kuwo aan sabab loo hayn oo aan cadaalad ahayn, wuxuuna sheegay in Ruushku doonayo inuu caawiyo shacabka Iran.

Laakiin marna kama uusan hadlin wax taageero milatari ah oo Ruushku siinayo Iran, intii uu si fagaare ah u hadlayay ka hor kulanka. Halkii laga filayay ballanqaad ciidan, wuxuu Putin soo jeediyay in laga wada hadlo sidii looga bixi lahaa xiisadda sii kordheysa. “Tani waxay noo tahay fursad… aan si wadajir ah uga fekerno sida looga bixi karo xaaladdan,” ayuu yiri Putin.

Duqeymaha Israa’iil ayaa si toos ah u beegsaday barnaamijka nukliyeerka Iran, gantaalaheeda iyo saraakiisheeda sar sare, halka Mareykanka uu isna usbuucii tagay ku biiray weerarrada isagoo adeegsanaya bamyo culus oo dhulka hoostiisa jeexa. Dhanka kale, Iran kama aysan helin wax ka badan taageero hadal ah oo uga timid xulafadeeda ugu awoodda badan — Ruushka iyo Shiinaha.

Iskaashiga u dhexeeya Moscow iyo Tehran ayaa muddo dheer caqabad ku ahaa danaha Reer Galbeedka ee Bariga Dhexe iyo Yurub. Labadan dal waxay muddo ku dhowaad toban sano ah iska kaashadeen sidii xilka loogu sii hayn lahaa madaxweynaha Suuriya Bashar al-Assad. Intaas kadib, markii Ruushku la daalaa dhacayay duullaankii Ukraine, Iran ayaa la timid rasaas, madfacyo iyo kumannaan diyaarado aan duuliye lahayn (drones) oo ay gacan ku siisay dagaalkaas.

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, Moscow lama filayo inay sidii oo kale u gacan siiso Iran. Iyadoo Tehran ay wajahayo caqabado qaran oo aanay muddada dhow la kulmin – kuna jiraan baaqyo ka imaanaya Donald Trump oo isbeddel xukun ah dalbanaya – taageero milatari oo Ruushka uga timaada waxay u muuqataa mid fog, sida ay khubaradu sheegeen. Inkastoo heshiiskii istiraatiijiga ahaa ee labada dhinac aysan ku jirin qodob ku saabsan difaac wadajir ah, haddana wuxuu xoojiyay wadaagga sirdoonka, wuxuuna mamnuucay in midkood uu caawiyo cadowga kan kale.

“Iran way codsan kartaa in Ruushku garab istaago si aargudasho ah oo ka dhan ah Mareykanka, balse Moscow weligeed ma aqbali doonto arrintaas,” ayuu yiri Nikolay Kozhanov, khabiir ku takhasusay xiriirka Iran iyo Ruushka, kana tirsan Jaamacadda Qatar.

Tallaabadani waxay muujinaysaa sida xiriirada ugu xooggan ee Putin ay weli u yihiin mid ku dhisan dano gaar ah, iyadoo Kremlin-ku wali ku mashquulsan yahay dagaalka Ukraine islamarkaana saaran cunaqabateyn adag oo Reer Galbeedku ku soo rogeen.

Putin wuxuu doonayaa inuu ka fogaado in rabshaduhu sii fidaan, maadaama ay dhibaato u keeni karto Iran iyo Ruushkaba. Sidoo kale, wuxuu rabo inuu ilaaliyo xiriirka xilli-danbe u roon Israel iyo xiriirka uu la leeyahay Donald Trump — kaasoo illaa hadda ka caga jiiday inuu Ruushka ku soo rogo cunaqabateyn cusub, inkastoo Kremlin-ku diiday inuu si dhab ah ula fariisto Ukraine si loo gaaro heshiis nabadeed.

Haddaba, taasi waxay u badan tahay inaysan Iran la yaab ku noqon — waa hore ayey ka niyad-jabtay Ruushka.

Bishii xigtay weerarkii Hamas ee 7-dii Oktoobar 2023, kaasoo lagu dilay in ka badan 1,200 Israa’iiliyiin ah, dowladda Iran waxay ku dhawaaqday in ay dhammaystirtay heshiis hub ay kaga helayso Ruushka oo ay ku jiraan diyaaradaha dagaalka Sukhoi Su-35, diyaaradaha qumaatiga u kaca ee Mi-28, nidaamka difaaca cirka ee S-400 iyo diyaaradaha tababarka ee Yak-130.

Laakiin waxa kaliya ee ay Iran heshay waxay ahaayeen diyaaradaha tababarka. Dhibaatooyin dhanka wax-soo-saarka ah iyo cadaadis diblomaasiyadeed oo uga yimid waddamada Khaliijka ayaa sababay in Ruushku dib u dhigo ama gabi ahaanba ka baaqdo inuu siiyo Iran hubka ugu culus, sida ay sheegtay Nicole Grajewski, oo ka tirsan xarunta Carnegie Endowment for International Peace kana qortay buug ku saabsan xiriirka Iran iyo Ruushka.

Sannadkii hore, weerarro Israa’iil qaaday ayaa burburiyay nidaamyadii ugu tayada sarreeyay ee difaaca cirka Iran — kuwaasoo Ruushku horey u siiyay. Bilaha xigay, Moscow waxay muujisay in aysan awoodin ama aysan doonaynin inay beddesho.

Isniintii, Araghchi wuxuu Putin ka codsaday nidaamyo difaac oo cusub iyo kaalmo dib loogu dhisayo shabakadda tamarta nukliyeerka ee Iran, sida uu sheegay qof si gaar ah ula socday wadahadalka.

Usbuucii la soo dhaafay, su’aal ay weriyayaal weydiiyeen oo ku saabsan sababta Ruushku hub ugu diiday Iran si ay isaga difaacdo weerarrada Israa’iil, Putin wuxuu ku jawaabay in xiisaha Iran ay u qabto hubka Ruushka uu hoos u dhacay, islamarkaana aysan jirin codsiyo cusub oo rasmi ah.

“Ma jirto wax muhiim ah oo laga hadlo,” ayuu yiri.

Iran ma aha dalkii ugu horreeyay ee uu Ruushku u muujiyo in uusan garab taagnaan doonin xilliga ugu adag. Armenia — oo xitaa heshiis is-difaac oo rasmi ah la leh Ruushka — kama aysan helin wax gargaar ah sanadihii 2020 iyo 2023 markii ciidamada Azerbaijan ay gebi ahaanba qabsadeen gobolka gooni u goosadka ah ee Nagorno-Karabakh. Dhacdadaasi waxay dedejisay in Armenia ay si cad uga leexato xulafadii Moscow kuna jeesato dhinaca Mareykanka.

Sidoo kale, markii madaxweynihii Suuriya Bashar al-Assad xukunka laga tuuray sanadkii hore, Putin wuxuu si fudud ugu fidiyay magangalyo isaga iyo qoyskiisa.

“Ruushka ma ahan saaxiib dhab ah oo kalsooni leh sida uu isu muujiyo: Putin marar badan ayuu jeedsadaa marka saaxiibbadiisa kali-taliska ah ay u baahdaan garab istaag,” ayuu yiri Fabrice Pothier, la-taliye hore u ahaa hoggaanka Ururka NATO.

Putin halkii uu caawin lahaa Iran, wuxuu hadda isku dayayaa inuu isu muujiyo dhexdhexaadiye suurtagal ah oo xal ka keeni kara dagaalka. Hase yeeshee, Trump ayaa toddobaadkii hore tuuray suurta-galnimadaas, isagoo sheegay in Putin uu marka hore diiradda saaro dagaalka Ukraine.

Dagaalka u dhexeeya Israa’iil iyo Iran wuxuu dhinac uga faa’iideyn karaa Moscow, iyadoo kor u kac ku imaan karo qiimaha shidaalka islamarkaana warbaahinta dunida laga leexinayo duullaanka Ukraine — xilli Ruushka la filayo inuu bilaabo weerar cusub xagaagan.

Balse dagaalka wuxuu Iran uga tagi karaa mid sii go’doonsan, kuna sii tiirsan Ruushka iyo Shiinaha — taasoo labadaas quwadood u noqon karta fursad ay ka faa’iidaystaan.

“Dacwada ugu badan ee laga maqlo gudaha Iran waa in Shiinaha iyo Ruushku aysan ahayn saaxiibbo dhab ah, balse ay ka faa’iideystaan go’doonka Iran si ay u helaan khayraad dabiici ah oo raqiis ah, isla markaana ay siiyaan hub tayo hoose leh oo qiimo qaali ah, mararka qaarna aysan xitaa keenin qalabkii la ballan qaaday,” ayuu yiri Tino Sanandaji, cilmi-baare Swedish-Irani ah oo ka tirsan Dugsiga Dhaqaalaha ee Stockholm.

Qaar kale waxay ka digeen in kalsoonida lagu qabo Ruushka ay dhantaalmi karto.

“Xaqiiqda ayaa ah in Ruushku uusan awoodin inuu ka hortago weerarkii baaxadda lahaa ee Israa’iil ku qaaday dal ay shan bilood kahor kala saxiixdeen heshiis istiraatiiji ah,” ayuu qoray Andrey Kortunov, oo ah aqoonyahan cilmiga siyaasadda. “Moscow si cad uguma diyaarsana inay dhaafto hadal siyaasadeed.”