Constitutional Changes and Electoral Wrangling Threaten Somalia’s Stability

[Deeq A.]

Could the electoral impasse extend President Mohamud’s rule?

Mogadishu (PP News Desk) — The disagreement over Somalia’s electoral model for the 2026 elections appears harder to resolve compared to the 2021 electoral impasse. When Jubaland and Puntland rejected the 2020 electoral law, President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed reasoned it was an opportunity for a term extension. His control of the bicameral legislature ensured the passage of a two-year mandate extension. The country was on the brink of conflict before an electoral model was agreed upon, thanks in part to Mohamed Hussein Roble, the Prime Minister, who opposed the controversial term extension for both the executive branch and the legislatures.

In 2024 President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud took a different path. He proposed constitutional change followed by a one-person, one-vote election in 2026. The bicameral legislature amended several articles of the provisional constitution. A presidential system will replace the prime ministerial system, the presidential term of office will be five years, and the president will select members of the national electoral commission.

The critics of President Mohamud have at least two hurdles to overcome: the amended articles of the constitution and his proposed electoral model. Villa Somalia views constitutional amendments as a bulwark for the electoral model. President Mohamud cites the example of the 2021 general elections in Ethiopia that did not take place  in Tigray. His seemingly unworkable plan fuses elements of universal suffrage and indirect elections. MPs and Senators representing the secessionist administration of Somaliland will have representation in any new dispensation if President Mohamud’s plan succeeds. In 2023, Puntland State President Said Abdullahi Deni announced that full participation of Somaliland in the National Consultative Council would be one of his preconditions to rejoining the Council. That was before the Somaliland administration signed an illegal maritime Memorandum of Understanding with Ethiopia in 2024.

The electoral commission of the Federal Government of Somalia recently issued a statement in which it claimed that it would hold elections in parts of Jubaland  Puntland State despite the two federal member states having no ties with Mogadishu. Three impasses remain unresolved: the controversially amended articles of the provisional constitution, the proposed electoral model for 2026 and Puntland State’s position on the role of “Somaliland” MPs and Senators in the federal institutions in Mogadishu. The electoral impasse engineered by Villa Somalia might become a pretext for President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to stay in power until 2028.

© Puntland Post, 2025

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