TFG Under Seige, Somalia Shifts towards Change

[Armchair Politician]

Every regional capital outside of Bay is either under local administration, or plagued by insurgent attacks. Geedi and Yusuf are feuding, and the bastion of the TFG's strength, Puntland, is losing its war with Somaliland.

 

Attacks now occur daily in Marka, Beledweyne and Jowhar as well as Mogadishu. Galgadud, Lower Juba, Gedo and Middle Juba are wild and ungoverned regions where al-Ittihad, Hizbul Shabab and the UIC mass their armies while local tribal groups vie for power and influence.

 

Puntland's years of mismanagement under Adde Musa has weakened Puntland noticeably. Once a match for the breakaway republic of Somaliland, Puntland has become an embattled and feeble state, rife with internal divisions.

 

This is nothing compared to the TFG however, which has all the hallmarks of a dying administration. Always plagued by infighting, the TFG looks poised to kill itself in a rehash of the early 1990s tribal feuds.

 

Great change is in store for Somalia, who like the ancient Chinese curse, is living in interesting times.

[Jacaylbaro]

No the tfg is not dying that soon .... things are changing.

 

First, there is no need of puntland's existance and it will be fully part of Somalia.

 

Second, a new face will be created by throwing Geedi and bringing a new individual that can attract a lot of Asmara group supporters.

 

Third, Ethiopia will pull out not very soon though, more african troops and Arabs are coming to fill the gap.

 

Finally, there will be only SOMALILAND and SOMALIA .....

[Armchair Politician]

Geedi has established deep roots in the TFG's governing apparatus, and it is not a simple matter of substituting Ali Mahdi for Ali Geedi. Also, Geedi is the linchpin for foreign and Ethiopian support in Somalia. Ali Mahdi is no diplomat or statesman, he is simply a warlord and ex-hotelier, and is incapable of the political maneuvering necessary to maintain the TFG.

 

The current non-tribalist TFG support is almost entirely behind Geedi, and this is the only solid base the TFG has, the tribal support being largely ephemeral and based on clan politics.

 

By replacing Geedi with Mahdi, the TFG will not only not gain any new tribalist support (same tribe) but lose all their civil society and intellectual support. Geedi's new cabal (Geedi-Mohamed Dhere-Abdi Qeybdiid) basically control Benaadir and Middle Shabelle, and are likely to form a rival administration instead of "going quietly".

 

The whole situation is deteriorating rapidly.

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

You are giving too much power to these little Xabashi sycophant men.

 

Cabdillaahi Yuusuf, the senior stooge, did not like Geedi, the junior lackey, from day one. He was parachuted in and imposed by his master. The senior stooge couldn't do a shuud then, neither can he do a shuud if their master in Adisababa does not give a green light.

 

All this hoopla and little noise is nothing.