COVID-19 and Somalia’s Elections

[Deeq A.]

Roiling distrust and petty squabbles will get the country nowhere. If the point is to help the country move forward from Covid-19 and save lives, a government of national unity is the only answer. 

Presidents are voted in to serve a specified term for a reason: it is called democratic mandate. Whilst it will be a bit of a stretch to reconcile this concept to how things are done in Somalia under 4.5, it nonetheless means everyone has their day in Villa Somalia – no more, no less.

No Somali president has ever been successfully re-elected – a statistic that is hard to ignore for some. The prospect of re-election also means one has to defend their record and needs to have something to show for it. This is not something that can be conjured up in one’s final few months in office.

Alternatively, there is the tempting short-cut to all of this: term extensions. That is why we have dictators in many parts of the world – term extensions made permanent. However, history shows us what seems like an appealing temptation is in fact a thin edge of the wedge which does not end well.

It is therefore important to assess the talk about the possible delays to the Somalia’s elections in this context. In the midst of Covid-19, attention has understandably shifted to whether this is the right time to hold country-wide elections when a virulent virus is raging.

Provisions in the recently enacted, albeit imperfect, national election law provide for scenarios for this. A key one of these scenarios is a “national emergency”. For many, Covid-19 fits the bill and extension-enthusiasts seem to be delighted.

Underlying all of the discourse about the term extension are four assumptions: (a) a country that is stable (b) country-wide one-person-one-vote elections are feasible; (c) Covid-19 impact is managed well and the government will use any extension appropriately; and (d) the international community can referee if needed.

None of these assumptions holds true of course. Here is why:

• The country is not stable

A sense of stability is often necessary to hold elections. Implicit in this assumption is that the government of the day (ideally) controls the country, or at least a good proportion of it that can provide electoral legitimacy if elections were held. It is no secret that most of what was bequeathed to this government, in terms of controls over cities, roads and towns, have reverted back to terrorists in the last few years. Everyone has to fly to towns a few miles away from the Mogadishu as the only way of dodging terrorists’ road blocks.

Much more arguable is indeed whether the government has much control over Mogadishu itself. A large proportion of terrorists’ income is derived from the city under the government’s noses. Terror courts operate openly in Mogadishu and orbital districts are no-go areas for the government.

In such circumstances, where is the stable country in which free and fair elections can take place?

• The one-person-one-vote unicorn

The enterprise of the National Independent Electoral Commission (NIEC) has so far been focused on trying to sell the impossible: a one-man-one-vote unicorn. This is largely to keep the budget flowing. There has never been a realistic assessment of the feasibility of elections. NIEC cannot do much to plan for elections independent of coordinated government efforts to claim territory from terrorists to make people feel safe to vote. This gulf between reality and the unicorn plan does not surprise anyone and there was never any urgency to plug it. The NIEC envisioned long ago that there was nothing they could change and stopped trying to do anything meaningful. Slanted official announcements are intended keep the show on the road to help spend more budget.

This means the one-man-one-vote election premise is another unicorn that everyone knows does not exist. There is no logic in delaying elections that everyone knows were not going to happen anyway.

• Covid-19 impact

Covid-19 is the main reason a national emergency provision might be invoked to delay the elections. It is a course of action that would have made more sense had the government been trying its best to save lives or mitigate the hit to people’s economic well-being. The reality is we have neither.

The only thing worse than doing nothing is a confused mess and that is precisely what the people of Mogadishu are experiencing now. No one knows who is charge in the city. As the virus rages, everyone, including hundreds of thousands of refugees in camps in Mogadishu, are left to their fate.

If all that is happening is either wilful blindness to the risk of Covid-19 or simple incompetence laid bare again, the need for change of leadership becomes more urgent than ever. It follows if those currently at the helm were left to carry on longer than their time, an important chance is missed to save the country from the effects of Covid-19 and its ruinous economic impact.

In the circumstances, a term extension will simply be a perverse outcome.

• International community

Whenever you hear about a Somali problem, the cry for the “international community” to intervene is never far behind. Most Somalis have an almost infantile dependency on foreigners and believe foreign countries are rainmakers which have Somalia’s national interest at heart. Muddled thinking, political incompetence, naivety? Take your pick.

The “international community” acts out of national security or economic self-interest reasons, and not because they have Somalia’s national interest at heart. History will favour those that recognise only Somalis can solve Somalia’s problems (Hanad Shisheeye iyo Doqon Sokeeye Lama Aamino). Rather than allowing “Qabyaalad” and “Xukun Jaceyl” driving the country into another dead end, we need to pause for thought and put the country first. Don’t wait for the “international community” to provide a template on what to do. If you can’t think for your country, you should not be there at all in the first place.

Put the people’s interest first

The combined challenges of political disarray, terrorism, mistrust and Covid-19 would require compromises from all sides. The alternative is bloodletting and the country sauntering into oblivion.

Today’s temptation to use electoral law provision or plain jiggery-pokery to force through a delay will result in tomorrow’s tragedy. History repeats itself first as tragedy, then as farce. We have been here before.

The biggest danger now is getting distracted from the task at hand by being preoccupied with delays to elections that everyone knows will never happen in the format envisaged. The most important priority should be on dealing with Covid-19. If a delay to the elections (under whatever shade of colour) becomes necessary at some point, then that will be the time to start planning for a government of national unity and agreeing on someone with integrity (who is independent of both government and opposition camps).  It may even be the time to try one of our many capable female leaders as a caretaker president or prime minster.

Putting the country above one’s ambition or self-interest requires painful political sacrifices on all sides. The alternative does not bear thinking about.

You can contact Abdi Ali @ abdirahman.ali3@gmail.com

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