The Looming constitutional crisis in Somalia

[Deeq A.]

Mogadishu ( PPM) ⁠— One year ago in Garowe President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed rejected the call from Federal Member States to form a collective leadership council to prepare Somalia for elections. With less than a year to go before  the planned 2021 elections the International Community urged Somali stakeholders to pool their to hold “credible” polls.

The Federal Government relies upon the electoral law passed by the Federal Parliament in December 2019. Not all Federal Member States agreed the electoral model. In March 2016 there was a consensus on the enhanced elections held in 2017. The incumbent Federal Government and Federal Member States lack a common political ground to thrash out issues that affect cooperation over preparations for the 2021 elections.

President of Somalia expects term extension

The Federal electoral law complicates matters. Article 53 empowers the Federal Parliament to decide the next if elections do not take place as planned. Inserted in the electoral law is an ambiguous clause that can be interpreted in different ways. If planned one person, one vote elections do not come to pass, the Federal Parliament will decide where to go from there. This can mean either (a) the Federal Parliament will expedite a term extension for the executive and legislative branches or (b) the Federal Parliament will recommend the appointment of a caretaker government. First scenario is less likely given the opposition to term extension expressed to Somali political parties and the International Community. The second scenario might stand a better chance to succeed if it gains the backing of the Federal Member States.

The lack of national electoral consultative platform adopted by the Federal Government turned out to become its Achilles heel. If Puntland rejects electoral modalities, the legitimacy of Federal Institutions will be called into question. Somaliland has already distanced itself from federal political processes.

The looming constitutional crisis Somalia faces is one the incumbent Federal Government has engineered with scant attention to political consequences.  

© Puntland Post Monthly , 2020 

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