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Posts posted by Mourad1
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7 hours ago, Suldaanka said:Somalia's Unity cannot be forced on people that do not want it. You know it very well as much as I know it. They can't change reality on the ground either by means of military might.
Equally, relying on foreigners to keep that unity for you, will have its limits. Foreigners will only obey that at their own disposal and own interests.
The unity that Villa AMISOM is looking for is found in Hargeisa not in Nairobi or London or New York. And certainly not in Mogadishu itself. Any other way, and it is just gacmo daalis iyo ruwaayad. Yes, the ruwaayad might seem at some point close to reality but it is a ruwaayad no-more, no-less.
With this fiasco backfiring spectacularly as was the previous ones regarding Berbera Port/Military base agreements. Both going ahead after Mogadishu's tantrums were dismissed like a sideshow. Yet both highlight the fact that Mogadishu puppet leaders are just merely dreaming. They still think that they have any power, when in fact its not. And what small power is discharged by powers that be i.e. IC/ UN/AU.
Moreover, these missteps by the rookie politicians is only playing to Somaliland's play book.
No one is forcing the people of Somaliland to accept and respect Somalia's Unity. I think that on a spectrum of diehard Somalilanders to Unionists, the Federal government is targetting the section made of doubters and people who are indifferent about the independent cause. So it is an ongoing debate.
On the point of international funding toward Hargeisa, I think that the Somali government has adopted a policy of "If you are not at the table, you are on the table." Signing off the special status will eliminate any inputs that Unionists could have on the negotiations between the international community and Somaliland. So the current move by the Minister makes absolute sense.
If the hardball currently played by Somali officials will backfire, time will let.
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The disagreements between the officials have reached a point of no-return. Direct communications have broken down and most importantly, who will survive this battle is to be determined.
Let's see how this episode unfolds. The aspect that I am looking forward to seeing is Somaliland's ability to influence international power-brokers.
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4 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:He saw the light one could say and gave up on the failed union between Somalia and Somaliland. People can see the light you know. Its not like something good or positive can come out of Mogadishu
Well good for him. However, why suggest to the media that he might abandon the ship.
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9 hours ago, Old_Observer said:Mourad1,
I have no problem of you supporting an Oromo, but I am afraid thinking the Oromo will have different interest in Somalia or with Somali people in general, other than that Ethiopia as a country has is mistaken. The Oromo might even have more of what you think Ethiopia had in the past history.
My oly point in this thread is don't break your head, don't question friendships among yourselves for an issue which does not amount to anything. UAE maybe pushing or bankrolling this, but should not be something to accupy the Somali people.
If Abiy Ahmed postures himself as a dealmaker in the Horn, why would the federal government of Somalia oppose this? Ethiopia's new Prime Minister doesn't have a proven track record. So in that essence, Abiy Ahmed should be given the benefit of doubt.
Regarding Abiy Ahmed's self-identification. I hope anyone can differentiate between Oromo's public opinions and a politician who considers himself an Oromo.
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1 hour ago, Aroori said:How does an aid given to Somaliland within the framework of the new deal (signed by an FSG administration) undermines the territorial integrity of Somalia?
I don't want to speculate or extrapolate. But not knowing the conditions in which the agreement was signed by Somali officials back then, I can't make a fair assessment on the issue of territorial integrity of Somalia. However, the agreement clearly has components that suggest Somalia's unity is questioned. The fact that Somalia acknowledges that Somaliland is a special case and needs a separate arrangement by itself is a major blow to the Federal government since Somaliland considers itself an independent country.
Moreover, Minister Hassan's letter certainly implies that the current deal in place violates some parameters set out by Somalis officials. Which ones I don't know but I don't believe that the federal government would oppose a deal that FULLY respects its integrity. The only issue of disagreement is Unity.
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1 hour ago, Old_Observer said:That is simply propaganda. TPLF, OLF, ONLF and later EPRDF had supported Eritrean independence since 1978.
It was also Meles (was another leader of TPLF named Sebhat old man) that saved Isayas from his base in border of Sudan being over run by Ethiopia.
They were helping each other and quareling all the time. But that is not the point.
My point was because not liking Ethiopia we should not automatically be so praising Isayas. 4,000 Somali have reached Eritrea in 90s. Guess how they were received. No work permit, have to pay exorbitant amoun for UN travel document, Eritrea receives dollars but gives the Somali in Nacfa and never allows the refugee's local committee to work directly with UN agency. There isstill camp near Massawa with few hundred Somalis to this date.
In Ethiopia: The committee of the camp works directly with UN. Somalis that can afford to travel have easily accessible Travel document, some even Ethiopian citizenship, have schools, some were settled and given farm lands.
OK its hard to compare since in Ethiopia the Somalis from the republic are among their people, but still compare it to Kenya and Eritrea its night and day. There is more than 100,000 Somalis from the republic in Addis Ababa with full work permit that allows them to work and live like locals.
Lets not just go by enemy of my enemy is my friend.
It is easy to dismiss anything that doesn't fit your truth as propaganda. However, EPLF had two entire brigades stationed in Addis Ababa since the fall of the city till their expulsion in 93 due to the border conflict with Eritrea. I hope that you understand the indisputable fact that no one was doing Isaias any favors, he was in the capital on his own will.
OO, I do agree with you that Ethiopia and Somalia are by default brotherly nations, however ever since Abyssinia chose to change its name to Ethiopia, in order to claim the so often mentioned in the Bible: Ethiopia = the Land of the Blacks. Our highland brothers have developed imperialist ambitions. Meles tried to diversify and modernize the country's image as a multi-ethnic and multi-religious state, but still, as for today, Ethiopia remains in its ever core, for many Somalis, as an orthodox Christian nation populated and dominated by Xabashi ( Tigre and Amhara).
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Never trust a man with no principles. On a fundamental issue as Somali unity, one can't just flip-flop. You either identify as Somalilander or as Somali. Xaglatoosiye was on the frontlines fighting against the dismemberment of Somalia and now he has joined the ranks of secessionists. Everybody can guess what he is about to do tomorrow.
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For historical reasons and Ethiopia's active role in Somali politics, any deal with Ethiopia is controversial. However, Abiy Ahmed clearly identifies himself as Oromo, and he seems to depart from Ethiopia's historical imperialistic tendencies. In the current state of affairs, it is more than natural to welcome and show some support for the new Prime Minister of Ethiopia.
After all, what do Farmaajo and Kheyre have to lose? It might eventual, in the near future, pay a dividend, who knows?
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13 minutes ago, Old_Observer said:You of all people should not go that far. Somalia under Zaid Barre had even more accolades. Actually Somalis are only people that fought colonialism in the beginning. The South African one is different and the Sudanese one happend in Khartoum not before the europeans had landed and ruled Khartoum.
But when the bottom fell off and the inside became outside what happened to Somalia...we all know what happened. Eritrea is even more closed 100 times more closed than Somalia was in 1990.
I would say put things in perspective. Not go overboard with praises so that your criticism will also be reasonable.
I am not here to argue for Ethiopia, but It was Isayas who called Clinton at 2:00AM to tell Ethiopians to stop.
It is Isayas whose 25km deep over 1000 km length of his country who cannot put army without permission from Ethiopia, just like Egyptians can't in Sinai without permission from Israel.
Its Isayas who cannot set foreign base in his country without Ethiopian permission. Aslk Qatar that spent 12 years in Eritrea. Ask UAE that only set up base after 3 months in Eritrea. Eritrea begged US to have a base, but America said first end state of war with Ethiopia.
Anyway my main point is even if you are fuming mad on Ethiopia, no reason to go overboard with things that may or maynot be true.
It was Isaias who brought Meles along to his ride to Addis Ababa. As a part of the deal, Meles signed off the independence of Eritrea. However, Isaias miscalculated Meles' resilience in the conflicts of 93 and 98. For future references, know that the recent history of the Horn of Africa is well documented, OO
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Ask yourselves why would anyone leak these letters to the press.
Times have changed and a new era has begun. No more to the situations where the Somali government unconditionally agrees with deals that fundamentally question its territorial integrity. From now on, Somaliland has to live with the fact that itself is an unrecognized territory for more than 27 years.
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What a time to be alive. Unlike many politicians before him, Trump has a strategy. He speaks to the dark side of the average American. If Trump doesn't deviate from his agenda and the economy doesn't unravel till mid-2020, believe it or not, Trump will get re-elected.
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46 minutes ago, maakhiri1 said:One thing is certain, This arrogant Arab would not speak like this if he didn't have the confidence of UAE gov.
What he is stating is 100% the position of totalitarian UAE.
I disagree. So far the debate has involved DP World and the Somali government and not necessarily the Emirati government. The fact that DP World is run by the ruling family of Dubai makes the entire debate more complicated than necessary. Time will tell if the central government in Abu Dhabi will support this deal.
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The longer the waiting game drags on, the tougher it will be to get all parties behind the chosen one.
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8 hours ago, Suldaanka said:The SNM had no official position on the issue of independence. However, there were obviously the believe that the 1960s Union was not fair and needed to be reviewed.
Any hope for revival of the 1960s union was dashed when, shortly after the overthrow of the dictator, the Mogadishu leaders declared their own government without consulting or involvment of the SNM leaders. Mogadishu folks were more interested in looting and pillaging the state organs rather than help revive the country from the brinks.
That was the straw that broke any hope of a Unity's back. And as they say the rest is history.
Suldaanka, thanks for clarifying SNM's position on independence. Let me ask you this question: What do you think that caused for the movement never to have an official position on independence, fully aware of the fact that many of its members opposed 1960 Unity.
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18 hours ago, Oodweyne said:Mourad1,
I think I shall proceed to be "generous" in my reply to you. And in that sense, I shall say, that your argument, whatever you thought it was conveying when it was a mere "budding gist" in your thought process, seems to have lost few of its "structural underpinnings" by the time it hit the page. And it became a "written thought" for the public-at-large to examine it. Hence, sorry to say this but it's hard to make a head or tail about your argument.
Therefore, lets hope you shall give it a another whirl (as it were) and then tell us exactly what on earth are you getting at? As for what you "term" as a the "process of rewriting history" unless you are seeing ghost in here which no one else is privy to, I assure you, that, no one is "re-writing" anything in here. Much less said about doing it to history. So, again, tell us exactly what you see in here that is "re-writing" of history, and we in turn shall "invite" ourselves to the "privilege" of setting you straight. Go for it, mate.
Fair enough. Let's proceed.
It was a public secret that the SNM was a separatist organization at its core. However, even during its darkest hours, the movement maintained the facade of being opposed to MSB as its main objective.
I know in hindsight it is much easier to talk, but by laying out its main objective from the start, it would have made the situation much easier.
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17 hours ago, Suldaanka said:
Founding fathers of the
QuoteSomaliland National Movement
(SNM) - the formation of an armed movement for the sole purpose of overthrowing long time Somali dictator by military means.
1. The Rebirth of Somaliland: History of Somaliland
2. The Rebirth of Somaliland: The Process Of The Union And The Act Of Union
3. The Rebirth of Somaliland: Northern Mistrusts And Discontents: Origins And Emergence Of Early Signs
4. The Rebirth of Somaliland: The 1961 Aborted Military Coup
5. The Rebirth of Somaliland: The Formation Of The SNM And Liberation Struggle
1I think that it is too early to start the process of rewriting history. Most Somalis still know it is "Somali National Movement". Moreover, this issue brings forward the striking pattern among many clan-centered organizations in Somali Peninsula, that of prioritizing clan unity over organization's mission. SNM would have taken a different a position in the mid-1990 talks and would have had a different international reaction to its declaration of independence in 1991.
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Ethiopia has historically had powerful allies. Back in 1991 when all regional experts concluded that the then-state of Ethiopia will totally disintegrate since a pack lead by Marxist Eritrean separatists were marching toward the capital. However, we all know what happened afterwards.
Let history be a lesson for us. Russia, Britian and the US have always stood side by side with the Xabashi people of Abysinnia. This time around will undoubtably be the same. However, in the interest of the people of Horn let us reboot the Balkanization of Ethiopia that started back in 1991.
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6 hours ago, Old_Observer said:It has become a culture and those who cry a regime is corrupt are only fighting for their turn at the till.
If you ask someone who cries against corruption to list which one is worst which one is least destructive, they would be like deer in headlights.
Corruption is everywhere west east africa europe Israel...The most damging corruption in Africa is sending the money outside of the country.
Politically it tells you there is no hope no development no tomorrow in this country therefore I take the money and put it where it has future.
On the other hand I could tolerate a corrupt official who would obtain land and set a farm, buildings, factory etc At least he/she is risking what they stole.
Simply accusing someone of corruption has become fashion and no proof needed just get some poor people from the street and give them guns to be army of one corrupt against another.
If the corrupt is in their group is tolerated if he is from another group the sky is falling.
It has become norm. It is bad only when somebody else does it. It has become relative. There is no absolute and basic right or wrong. Its sad.
As there are levels to everything around the globe. There are levels to corruption. The extent of corruption in most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa is detrimental to its own population.
The distributing fact of Somaliland's corruption case is that there is not much of margins in the budget. The consequences are severe such that salaries can't be paid, projects can't be completed, and others.
However, after 27 years of seeking international recognition, some govt employees and even some top officials will be become impatience and will try their luck with public money.
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Bekela Gerba seems to be in a very combative mood even though it was just moments ago when he was released from prison. The situation indicates to me that the government's opponents are becoming more hawkish in their stances toward the government than previous rounds of protests.
Additionally, releasing political prisons after days of strikes and protests communicates to the people that to some extent the government can be pressured. As a result, it can feed the narrative that civilian disobedience can overthrow the federal government.
therefore, It is interesting to see what is going to happen next.
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A community, which is highly fragmented, can't simply be unified by the prospect of forming a Federal State within Somalia. The core issues that are causing the community to have different views, should first be addressed.
If there is a genuine sense of community in the region, then the community must come to terms with real issues on hand.The influencers in the region have their own agenda. Puntland seems to have other priorities than being occupied with SSC region and simultaneously Somaliland is moving closer to secure its eastern borders.However, would securing the borders yield international recognition for Somaliland and the ultimate defeat of the Unionist camp in the North or would it be not enough to end the status quo.Anyways, I have a question for the Landers on the forum, why is Somaliland a unitary state considering the Unionists and tribal elements opposing it?-
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Two Presidents who had a tremendous amount of influence in the Benadir region have left the issue concerning the status of capital unresolved. The issue is highly divisive and polarizing. Why force the issue when anti-government forces are still very active.
On the other side as the head of the executive branch of the capital, the job description is very clear. Lawmaking is a different job. Therefore, if members of the executive council disagree with the policy that is implemented then they have the right to resign from the council.
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It has been 27 years since Somaliland has declared independence. The number of countries that have recognized the legitimacy of Somaliland's claim remains zero to this day. Why would any Federal government in Mogadishu now or in the future deviate from this very successful policy?
It is the new administration in Hargeysa that must reinvent itself to achieve its goal of international recognition. New policies toward achieving this goal will undoubtedly have unaccounted effects and side-effects. Therefore anything is possible if the status quo is not maintained. It could result in a new state similar to South-Sudan, Taiwan or dismantlement of the Tamil Tigers.
Unravelling is definitely possible.
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1 hour ago, Suldaanka said:If Mogadishu tries to muscle its way to gaining control of Somaliland Air space, surely it won't succeed. Shutting down the Air space, both Hargeisa and Mogadishu loose. But that is how it will end if there is no agreement between the two sides.
With regards to the Qatar Airways, Somaliland's support for UAE/Saudi block is symbolic.
Thanks for explaining, Suldaanka
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Who will gain anything from shutting down the entire airspace? I believe it is in the interest of the federal government to keep in place whatever agreement that already was in place. However, wouldn't Somaliland's government -a known UAE ally- stop all Qatar Airways flights entering Somaliland's airspace on daily basis? If it is that easy or maybe it is more complicated than it actually is?
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Failmaajo delivers a memorable speech (NOT)
in Politics
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At the end of the day, Farmaajo is not a scholar. To be absolutely objective doesn't serve his interest. It is certainly a valid point that the Somali government didn't disintegrate on January 26, 1991. However, be under no illusion, Farmaajo is reer Konfuur. He interprets past events in Somalia's history according to how the majority of us "reer Konfuur" view these events.