The Next Ethiopian Conflict: Amhara vs Abiy's Oromo

[The Next Ethiopian Conflict: Amhara vs Abiy's Oromo]

Cabey Axmaro is  walking the line the of amhara chauvanism.  The brutal TPLF weyane  , like it or not made a last ditch at  famous 1985 Adwa conferance with the EPLF of how to handle the question of the of "Ethiopianism" and adpoted a ethno-centric based ideology. Ofcourse in those days every rebel group had to adopt a "marxist" outlok. The slick Meles choise marxist-leninist hoxaist line as a mirage for his  TPLFS goal:  either the dismantlement of Meneliks Ethiopia or a ethno-based Ethiopia that will never surrender to Amharas.

Looking from a broader perspective from Somali viewpoint what Abey Ahmed is doing is actually silently supported by the amhara elite of addisabeba. Remember that that it is the Amhara -assimiated urbanised of Addis Abeba that form a majority in the capital and who have  vast supremacy in the ethiopian adminstration in the capital. They are the technocats. In summary, Abey is pursuing "Itoobita Tikdem". The  slogan of the Mengistu. 

The Amharas of Gondar and Bahridahr are not relevant.  The analysis that Abey Ahmed is embracing  oromo nationalism is flawed.  2 things dont add up. Being an oromo nationalist and desiring a national army and minimising the federal concept of Ethiopia.  During the war he waged upon the Tigrayans the western media overlook the harsh measures that Abey Ahmed took against oromo armed militias. 

 

Something is fishy here. Galbeedi  whats your insight?

1-Does it add up? Looking for an "ethiopian identity" that aka means amhara identity and a national army and minimising the federal concept of Ethiopia that gave the 30 oromos 30 years of breathing space to establish unieversaties and and a generation of ethnic concious oromo youth.

The Somali factor.

2- We Somalis are gullable, emotionally driven people. While the Wahabi inspired itihad movement UWSLF accepted treason and big bearded "Sheikh Ibraahim Dhere" accepted the horrendous murder money of Weyane throgh Cabdi Iley the ONLF just gave up, Most rebel organisations create  a political fraction that continues its natural right for freedom but they didnt have that political gymnastics. The communist kurds of Turkey made that political gymnastics. They created the HDP that gained 13% percent in Turkeys parliament and at the same time  had close contacts with the many splinter groups of the communist seperatist kurdish seperatists whose number enemy 1 now is the islamic awakening of Turkish kurds. The Splinter groups is ideologicaly driven and mainly focuses on extreme kurdish seperatism and hatred of religion.    This did not happen in Soomali-Galbeed. Make a breakway fraction that  firmly continues with the struggle by rasing a new generation  of pan somalism.  2B.  What has really changed?   The governnor is installed by Addis abeba as all previous were

Sh Ibraahim Dheere, Cagjr have all embracing the idea of an "inclusive" Ethiopia that somalis would be an actor. They dont even understand that the ethiopian mindset or should I say Amhara mindset that somalis exist in the republic of Somalia. 

In conclusion Che and Makhir, Ethiopia is violitile. Abey Ahmed has been gone for FGS and given somalis some breathing space. At the same time his chooing the old track of the old order. This does not add up. Either the man is a conman trying to please everyone  or he is what I said wolf in a sheep clothes. An Amhara in oromo clothing. If he is the first one mark my words. The guy will be gone in a year once he loses those who shed their blood  for him. Mainly Oromos.

 

Anyways Lets see how round 2 goes. But something odd is happening in Ethiopia

 

 

 

 

 

[Somaliland: Operation Clean up Laascaanood (Loading...)]

easy to beat the war drums, we all know these tribes have fought before, years ago and a century ago. For the sake of Ramadan, I wish that somali somaliland leadership understand that they can not force their secceonist agenda upon a tribe. Lets face the truth,  somaliland is a tribal region.  If Muuses tribe hates to be under the federal government why force other tribes? Why invoce a white man so called colonial deals he made with some bribed traditional leaders. To add historical evidence to the right cause of the people of somaliland, they fought the english, all somalis fought them.

In conclusion. Stop beating the war drums, we have climate change going on in the somali peninsuala. The nomadic way of life is changing. People need clean water, education, they need instututions. The silent majority of the somalis in hargeysaa are deeply against this war. Saaxirka Muuse, the silent majority neeeds to action against this mad-max  warlord who seems to live in the times of 80-ties.

For gods sake, Ethiopia with diffirent ETHNICITITES  fought a bloody war and made peace.  When will we poor somali hungry nomads stop fighting?. Saaxir Muuse has to go.

 

[AT LEAST 34 KILLED IN CLASHES IN SOMALILAND – TWO DOCTORS AT PUBLIC HOSPITAL]

1 hour ago, Che -Guevara said:

Fighting has resumed

Another meaningless tribal somali vs somali war, which one tribe wants to impose its whole "land" expirement despite rejecting others imposing soomaliweyn to them.  What a bizarre world we are living in. Somalis busy killing each other while taking their wounded to Addis Abeba becouse of lack of basic medical services.  Ilaahay ummada ha isku keeno dadka ha qabto this war lord Muse who seems to be living in the tribal 80-ties. 

By the way, this tit for tar war has going around for a 100, years, is not a new thing that these tribes engage in this blood shedding, whats new is that it is on a whole grand scale.  I dare to say you will not find this in Baidoa or Barawa and in the fertile grounds of Somalia.  Shedding blood is not something that is made easy.  Reer waqooyiiga kulligooda dhan xamaasad ey ku socdaan, ( politics based on feelings). When the shrewd Haile Selassie was debating to in the UN claiming Somalia was ethiopian land pan-somalism flourished. They came to the south and had a meeting to Aaadan cadde and requested a quick union. Aadan Cadde who was educated and nourished politicaly pointly adviced in mild manner and posed the quick question "walaalayal ma is xambaarki karnaa". I do not recall the exact  words but the meaning was "are you guys sure about this, maybe we need more  adjust our adminstrations considering on the merging of our instutututions. A proud staunch somali nationalist answerd Aden Cadde and said "waan is naqaane soomali hadaan nahnee dee dhameey". In other words cut the bullshit and merge the union.

 

This was some 70 years ago, sadly Islaanta whose husband was staunch pan-somalist bragged to the EU and injected herself into the shamefull dustbin of history by glorifying her colonial background by saying "I was british, I relinquished my britishness".  I wonder how those words will be met by the thousands of derviches who out of gaalo-nacayb and not of tribal war, armed with spears went to war with the british armed with machine guns. 1/3 of Northerners died and in the South Shaykh Hasan Barsame of the Idrisiya Tariqa fought the italians and 2000 martys died in a single battle. 

The Qaadariya under Shayk Uweys al Barawi saw that this struggle would be long and instructed his diciplines to have pacifist struggle and established zawiyas that fed the orphaned,  Even the bishop of the catholic church in Mogadishu wrote how hard missionaring among somalis were hard as what he called "the mohammedan scholars know our intentions and have established lodges".

 

In conclusion, exactlt 100 years ago, thousands of somalis fought against the british and attained martyrdom. Now we are seeing Somalis fighting for keeping lines gaalo made. Magan Alle!

 

 

 

 

 

[Signs of a crumbing Ethiopia: At Least Four Killed at Adwa Victory Celebration]

1 hour ago, Che -Guevara said:

 

Ethiopia: At Least Four Killed at Adwa Victory Celebration

Posted on March 2, 2023 by Gedab News in Gedab News  30

Gedab News, March 2, 2023: Today Ethiopia celebrated the 1896 victory of the Adwa battle fought against the Italian colonial army. At least four people lost their lives after the security officers fired live ammunition at the crowd in Addis Ababa while they celebrated the 127th Adwa Victory Day.

This year’s celebration has more political significance and was celebrated with unusual fanfare. Usually, the day was mainly celebrated by WWII veterans, almost all of whom are dead

Preparations for the 127th celebration of Adwa were underway for many weeks and included practice parades that today displayed the might of the Ethiopian armed forces. Armored vehicles and missile-carrying vehicles rolled in front of the guests while fighter jets roared above. This year the government limited the celebrations to the main venue at Meskel Square. Prime Minister Abiy didn’t attend the celebrations.

However, many Addis Ababans, either by choice or in defiance of the government’s decision, flocked to the traditional celebration venue at Piazza neighborhood. Police have blocked streets that lead to Piazza.

The unauthorized Piazza event was celebrated in front of the controversial Minelik statue that stands near the Giorgis church. An eyewitness told Gedab News, “it was not clear whether it was a protest-demonstration, or a celebration. Soon a clash with the police ensued.” Security officers reacted by firing teargas canisters and live bullets.

At least four people have died in the incident including a student and a teacher. The toll of the killed and wounded is expected to be higher.

For the last four years, Ethiopia was marred by civil wars caused by ethnic conflicts and rivalries. So far, the conflicts have resulted in the depletion of the country’s foreign currency reserve and has destroyed the infrastructure that it built over a three-decade period. In the last two years alone hundreds of thousands of civilians and soldiers were killed or wounded. More were displaced or fled to the neighboring countries.

[Signs of a crumbing Ethiopia: At Least Four Killed at Adwa Victory Celebration]

Galbeedi made an assumption that americans would dictate terms in the horn-africa.  His analysis of things are often correct but I wonder if he has smelled the coffe.  The battle of Adwa and the celebration of it was a redline for Ethiopia. During the era of Haile Seleassie it was the prime celebration equal to our blessed day of liberation. Years of marginalisation but also 50 years of political activism has finally awakended the oromos.  During the derg, even the oromos would in their millions with the national flag march to the statue of Meneliq. 

But the oromisation of Ethiopia has begun.   The orthodox church has been dibided into an amhara and oromo one with the blessing of Abey Ahmed who is carefull not to alienate the oromo activists who paid with their blood remove the TPLF from power.   THE OLF since its its founding  branched out and the most succesfull one was the one with the philosophy to instead oromize Ethiopia and engage with the ruling elite The oromo professor Merera Gudina is without a doubt  the turabi of Ethiopia today. Meles Zenawi was shrewd political and realized how dangerous this unarmed man with his ideas and even hijacked an yemeni airplance  to capture him and freed him severe pressure. His long pacifist struggle with the clear agenda of historical revisionism is read today by oromo students and have been made obligtatory.  He  was the one who said "why should we as oromos  celebrate and march to the statue of Menelik, the arch butcherer of oromors and who chopped of the hands of legs of oromo men and breats of oromo women"?.   The guy is old now. He is not after power but he has leashed his hyeanas on of the people. 

 What is highly remarkable  and without a question of doubt is that thousands of oromos marched on the same day demanding the removal of stature while thousands of out-dated amharas marched proud expecting fellow "ethiopians" to celebrate with them.   What is more remarkable and without a doubt is the political move that Abey Ahmed   made. This is the first time an Ethiopian ruler abstains from actually attending the celebration.  I have said it before and will say it again. Ethiopia is  in full disintegration.

While the TPLF are biding their time and simply and wisely choose to set the oromos free in order fire up the countrey is finally happening.  While somali cland hatred has died down and somalis have finally understood  that war does not solve any issues  the next show down in Ethiopia will be between oromos and Amhara.  Abey Ahmed gave Welkail to tigray  and  is engaging in getting political legitamacy from those he got power from, mainly the oromos.  The project of the oromisaion of Ethiopia has begun and the process of marginalization of the Amhara has begun.   If Abey Ahmed is not toppled   the low level civil war ethiopia is engaged in will blow into a full civil war. The Amharas are arming themselves and the oromos. Poor somalis are disoriented what to do.

Meles was indeed shrewd. He knew that creating a ethnic yugusloavia like countrey with ethnic borders  is like sitting on pile of dymanites and enjoying a good cigar.  Anyways Galbeedi, gone are the days of America dictating to internal somali issues to Ethiopia  when Ethiopia today is engaged:

1- Ethiopia is in a civil war, it has just reached addis abeba. 

2- The Rebel movements are armed and more armed since the 1980. The TPLF willingly left million of kalashnikovs and ammunition in oromiya. Their  nemesis is not the oromos its the Amharas.

3- The Amharas are bent of toppling on Abey Ahmed and  have tried 1 in failed coup to remove him. They are arming themselves.  Abey Ahmed armed every man in Ethiopia to its teeth.

In concusion.    The international community has no will to engage in African wars any more. You heard Macrons revealing words today. While the whites want the whole world to be against Russia and engage in Ukraine Macrone refused to sanction the tutsi led Rwandan government.  Munaafiqnamada cadaanka waa yaab.   Saaxirka Afwerki is holding a few strings but even the eritreans are tired on him.  He cant glew  Ethiopia together forever and I have slight feeling that he does not want to see arrival of  the amharas who sometimes have a bitter taste of letting of Eritrea. America can try  dictate but Ethiopia is in a mess.  Somalia and somalis have breating space for now. If Amxaaro return to power the old couch that Meles used to humilare rival somali factions with will come back.  Our avid frequent flyer and the FGS of Soomaaliya needs use this time to get a grip  on the Somali pshyche.

 

 

 

[Just like 1994, America is transferring Somali issues to Ethiopia, thus both SSC Garaads and Somaliland will be dictated for a resolutions.]

Galbeedi the analysis would have been good if Ethiopia was in the state of of the Ethiopia we knew. The days when the shrewd murderous Meles and his weyane  would dictate to Somalis and sent invitation to somali factions to sit in his yellow couch. 

 

Those days are gone my friend. Ethiopia is in state of oromisation and dis-integration.  The noble adwa celebration that Ethiopians, mainly amharas would amass to the statue of Menelik is long gone. I dont know if you received news but oromo activists after dividing the orthodox church into a oromo  and amhara one refused to indulge in the adwa celebrations and 4 people died. Even Abey Ahmed in order to appease the growing power thirst of the oromos declined to come to the celebrations. Who would imagine that, an ethiopian ruler silently agreeing with that menelik was indeed a criminal who chopped of the breasts of oromos.  He chose not to  come to the amhara celebration.  

Meles and the TPLF did somalis a favours, by  creating a yuguslavia scenario  with pre-planned ethnic federation  that have somewhat saved Somalis from the fury of a strong Amhara centric nationalistic ethiopia that even refused the existense of muslims in the lands of Habasha. We have saying in the southern heart lands of Somalia. Nin tiiisa haysta too kale ma arko.

[Islaanta gets humiliated]

MMA, Islaanta has gone old. Everyone knew the rumours in Xamar back in those days.  Allah does not need her, She needs Allah. I hope those rumours are unfounded and she has finally seen the truth with the last messenger Muxammad Al Mustafa nabad iyo naxariis ha ku ahaate.

Indeed what a shamefull way to go, I was born british and I choose to give it up. No Islaanyahay. Blod was shed, thousands of Somalis died. You were a part of colony  and you were a second class citizen whose only duty was was to feed the whites of Britain with your resources and fight their wars in Iraq against the ottomans. You were classified as black woman, an inferior race.  I do no not think we need to talk more about the matter.  The conclusion is  that she really she is a prime example of  a new somali aphorism that she really put into practice  cimri dhamaad ceeb ayaa luu salootiya!

Yaab!

 

[Frequent flyer madaxweyne]

This criticism is not valid neither is not correct. Lets be honest. Farmaajo failed even to venture against any offensive against shabaab while HSM declared war. While farmajo was busy knee-jerking and engaging in power struggles with god for sakens bubu-lands in order to stay in power the enemy grew.

The reality on the ground is that HSM has matured. The countrey was a failed state that is in a  existential state of war against al-shabaab. In order for you to win a war you need allies.  Guys, smell the coffee, The world is tired on financing never ending african military expititions. HSM knows that. If he fails to  establish security and insutututions and a sense of hope that the government way of life is a better way of life then the shabaab Somalis will go down with him.

A credit to Farmaajo is that he probably out of tribal matters sorted Khayre to do things done. But he failed miserably when Afwerkis black magic of staying in power reacched him.

 

A famine is going one, you want people to be fed,  Somalia has a collapsed economy. The people need food. Food needs money, soldiers need money.  Ofcourse he will be a begging president.  Its shamefull but who on earth can blame him? His way handling the warlord Bihi was exemplary. Bihi wanted  a Somali president who would come to Las Anod and proclaim victory and then rally his people in a vicious tribal matters as the 80-tioes- HSM denied him that by stating that the Unity of Somalia is undebebatable and that the Biixi needs to crimes his comitting in Las-Anod. Infact the line he used against by telling him dont force your will on other people even fractured the whole secceionist project.

 

Regarding the war against Shabaab, man took on the red elephant in the room.   When we Somalis can pay taxes and use our nations resources only then can we stop begging.  Look at the historical trips of our presidents. All post-colonial presidents begged.  We somalis smiled and clapped our hands when  Barre went to Moscow and begged and came back with communism and with Russians.  The only good thing he did that he threw out the remaining italian elite who ran somali fruits.   

A white russian had to teach us who plant a seed in order for tomatoes to grow.  As non-ideological aligned people we are, we yet again begged and join the Arab League. We are the only nation that do not speack arabic.  We got money but at the same time deep identity issues came along that. What are we? Africans, arabs  etc?. Instead of focusing on somali nationalism and islami who choose to begg I remember a Facebook  post in 2020. The begging continued. They made some film about turks teaching Somalis how to plant tomatoes.  All were clappings and the comments were of joy but no one could see the irony. We clapped for the Italians, the russians, the cubans, the arabs, the americans, and then the Turks.

I will be harsh before I go to work.  I was firmly nagainst federalism.  After the defeat of al-shabaab this federal project will unleach a wave of  tribal bubu lands and discord.  T

he Las Anod community will demand a part of the cake, and now Hiiran and the south where borders are fluid even create more chaos.   But Somalia needed  it in order to problems of some people to Galmudug.  Imagine, the warlord busy in god forsaken desert town.  Federalism  tamed turned the tribalism but what we are lacking is a clear ideology.  An ideology created by us, tailored by us and that can lead us peace. Pan ethno- somalism combined with  Islam  is the only the political ideology that  show us the path. HSM  should speak more about this vision and the dream of a unfied somali peninsuala with strong islamic virtues  instead of bragging  small battle victory Shabaab.  The people need a ideology, a book, our stance, our vision. 

 

AUN Barres regime greatest mistake was choosing  communism and making small "orientation centres" teaching muslim nomads about class struggle when they needed to be taught about the ethnic card.  He lost the chance to teach Somalis about pan-somalism and ethno-nationaiism and how all somali tribes are some what somalis. Social engenieering Somalis to mix as they did to begin and creating a small elite that rejected tribalism

MMA,  The begging president has to be beg., Xamar dad ma joogaan sxb.    The educated elite who gained  a few things are now in their 60-ties. Those who are running the scenes are wolves born during the civil war. Their way of life motto is :  eat and steal before no one else can do it before you. 

 

Rabbi Ummada Soomaliyeed haa isku keeno. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[A deep southerners perspective on conflict in SSC- The Decline of the seccionist project.]

Its not often that I comment on Somali politics. Gone are the days when tribal matters are commented upon. But something is happening within the SNM folks. Since the early 90-ties I remember how they created a revisionist history. Whille Barre-regime repressed every clan that opposed him, indeed the northeners benifted the most in cost of scholarships etc.  Hey, if you dont belive me, just look at deeply intrenched the seccionists were in Barres regime, beginning with Silaanyo to  Kaahin. 

Anyways. The old generation is dead. A new generation that feeds upon social media is on the vibe in the streets of hargeysaa. I am getting a sense of that the whole extremist secceionist politics is declining. Like it or not, 30 years has gone and even within the folks in Hargeysaa are realizing that while the world are unitiing and forming economic  unity, creating a tribal state is not feasable. The Elite knew about it, but the masses are now start to realize it. The Decline began a long time ago but could be really defined when southern Somalia  got rather better. Hey?

How could you speak about pan-somalism and unity when rape and brutal warlords were reigning in the ghost town of mogadishu in the 90-ties. 30 years later we are today seing a stabile federal government, not a perfect one, but bent upon making peace and fighting the khwaarij. Gone are the old days of warlordism.  SNM 3-city state enlcave seem to be stuck in history. The anti-somali  SNM extremists, and not the somali brothers  hargeysaa finally lost the major political card of displaying the card of  "we are the only most safest place in Somalia".  Like or not, it was not southetners who destroyed it but Muuse Biixi himself. A blood thirsty man who himself indulged in the civil wars of the north. I dont know what kind of political advisors these guys have but it seems that irrational politcal decisions are made at jaad-sessions. Why on earth attack SSC? 

I love metaphors, and think that the young generation really shows were things are going. Last year I attended the gradutuation of brothers son.  The Somali youngters at the school who were all friends were taking and all-somali picture. A gloomy kid came probably forced by his parents with the SNM flag.  Realing how every immigrant group, turks, morrocans and their own flag the parents saw the flaw in their plan. While looking from the distance I could see the old man telling his kid to give him back the flag and take the blue one.    In conclusion, 30 plus years is a long time. The Seccesionists extremist agenda died with   their biggest co-sponsor TPLF. Thousands of jobless of northern somalis are in mogadishu and enjoying the life and the seeing the reality  that no one really cares about your clan.  The SNM  extremist elements within the seccesionist movement are in decline. The nail on the coffin was the SCC folks who woke up, My question now is, whats really the end game? When will the hargeysaa ppl oust this warlord ghoust from 80-ties? Where are the moderates withiin the movement and the intellectuals who can see the defacto situation?   By the way,  As a southerner I was happy to see Somaliland in peace. Its tragic to see how  1 man bizarre tragic irrational warlordism is dragging the countrey to intra.tribal conflicts. Every somali knows that the most tribal prone areas or folks are Hargeysaa folks.     Intee ey socdeen? 

 

[Another perspective: "The false-flah al-shabaab in Ethiopia alarm"- Caabey Axmaaro needs a cashow as Meles did]

 

Its allways good to read others perspective. Abukar Armans shares my view that the terror network al-shabaab, wahaabiyada and the so called "thousands of al-shabaab" invading soomali-galbeed is just another false-flag cashow for caabey axmaaro and his un-elected, menelik styled appointed cagjar in Soomali Galbeed. Hey who can blame him, the war on the TPLF has depleted his cash, the UAE dropped him off. The oromos  and qeero do not longer support him after he turned out to be a neo-mengistu.  

As for Cagjar, as far as I know he us un-elected and no diffirent then those before him. Hand picked by the amxara-elite bent upon keeping the lid on ethiopias ultimate fate, the decoding or deconstruction of the black colonialism that tha Amhara war-lord and bestial murderor Meneleik did.  Read  Former Ambd Abukar Armans perspectives. Kulaha Soomali-galbeed when they could have concentrated on a port, kismaayu. 

Friday July 29, 2022
By Abukar Arman

In countries such as the U.S., there is an unwritten theory in a police investigation that assumes whenever a neighborhood robbery occurs, it was done by someone who not only had the motive to commit that crime but the basic intelligence to help time it well and to get away with it. In other words, it was committed by someone who lives or operates within a 5-miles radius around the crime scene. If your gut feeling is ‘such mentality, regardless of how logical it may sound, will keep the law-enforcement stereotypically myopic and perpetually racist,’ you are not alone. But that is a topic for another day.

Meanwhile, an elaborately sophisticated attack carried out by more than 500 al-Shabab, and dozens of technical-armed trucks- against Ethiopia left many casualties and many unanswered questions. Granted, this was not a robbery.

According to the VOA’s Investigative Dossier, “Officials from both sides of the (Somalia, Ethiopia) border confirmed that the attacks preoccupied Liyu police forces and distracted them as other heavily armed al-Shabab units crossed the border unopposed.” Moreover, the same program quotes an anonymous former al-Shabab militant who said the group was determined to erect its flag inside Ethiopia and then officially declare that “jihad spread to a new front.”

The offensive, according to Matt Bryden of the controversial Sahan research group, “appears to be the start of a major, strategic initiative to establish an active combatant presence in Ethiopia, probably in the southeastern Bale Mountains.” How about that for a narrative express?

Surely with the failure of the Somali Federal Government’s military and intelligence campaign as well as America’s deadly drone doctrine to decapitate and defeat al-Shabab, the terrorist group remains more dangerous than ever. That danger is made worse when governments sometimes engage in their own concocted threats to pave the way for one manipulative objective or another. 

Here are some possible scenarios driving al-Shabaab’s incursion into the Somali region of Ethiopia:

Scenario One: 

It is the first step of a foreign-driven plan to spook China out of Ethiopia’s oil and gas-rich region. A few years ago, the Ethiopian government signed a multi-billion dollar deal with a Chinese company to develop petroleum and natural gas in the Somali region. Moreover, the company is to design storage, transportation, and marketing logistics as well as build pipelines for domestic and international supply. 

On April 28, 2020, the Ethiopian government signed a $3.6 billion deal with a Virginia-based energy firm named GreenComm Technologies to construct an oil refinery in Ethiopia’s oil-rich Somali region. Reminiscent of the Somali facilitated British predatory capitalist Soma Oil and Gas, there is only one problem: the company has neither the expertise nor the credibility to be trusted with such a contract. And though the Ethiopian government indicated the willingness to cancel, no official report confirms that.  

Scenario Two:

A false flag scheme to re-shuffle the cards in the Horn with the derailment of the Horn Economic Integration engineered by the European Union, championed by Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia, and funded by the U.A.E. Under such a scheme, a pretext for prolonged strategic military campaigns and political torpedoes launched from a selected federal state is established. So Ethiopia and Somalia, or President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, will spend the next four years riding a dangerous roller-coaster, as did President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (Farmajo) and President Uhuru Kenyatta. Meanwhile, Somalia has secured membership in the East African Community (EAC) and a peace-keeping force that excludes Ethiopia. 

Scenario Three:

To further hammer Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who has already lost a loyal partner in the loss of Farmajo. Under this scenario, multiple deadly fronts are opened. This scenario is based on the assumption that the United Arab Emirates or President Mohammed bin Zayed had turned his back on the European project that this author criticized before and dropped Abiy Ahmed from his previous pivotal role. Of course, the natural replacement is none other than President Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea, who secured UAE a military base while it was actively partaking in the war in Yemen and just completed training 5000 Somali soldiers to provide military protection as UAE colonizes Socotra in partnership with Israel.  

“The saga of these Somali soldiers has been full of twists and turns,” wrote Michelle Gavin, a security expert for the Council on Foreign Relations. This lucrative clandestine mercenary project was equivocated and denied by the Farmajo government until literally the last minutes before ceremonially handing over the presidential authority to the newly elected President HSM. 

Scenario Four:

To re-engineer a new balance of power that would end the ethnic cleansing of the Tigrayans and boost their military capacity to ultimately take over what is considered viable economic insurance- the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). This requires stretching the Ethiopian military power so thin by opening on it many military fronts. The coalition of the willing under this scenario may include Egypt, which considers the dam’s drastic impact on the flow of the Nile as an existential threat, Sudan, the U.S. And due to the rapidly changing geopolitics of the region, and Ethiopia’s steadily growing ethnic nationalism, it is likely to include U.A.E and Israel whose strategic and economic interest in the Nile water is no secret. 

Scenario Five:

A combination of the listed scenarios; and this could prove the most complex one to decode and deal with.       

Relevant Context  

For over a decade, Ethiopia has dominated the Bay and Bakool regions of the South West federal-state of Somalia. It has been its most reliable laboratory where Ethiopia trained and mobilized some of its most notorious clandestine allies, the violent neo-Islamists such as Mukhtar Robow (still held as a political prisoner) and his militia, and tribal secularists such as Abdirashid Janan and his militias for of subversion and security dependency (AMISOM). Intriguingly, the Shabaab militia that attacked Ethiopia is reported to have been trained in the Jubbaland federal state (Jilib and Ras Kamboni). According to the Governor of Bakool, their objective was to raise their flag inside Ethiopia. 

To accept that Shabaab would carry out such a daring operation with such a reported large number of its militia out of Jubbaland while ignoring the temptation to take the jewel of that federal state – Kismayo – or to takeover U.S.’ only military base in Somalia and to chase the American troops out of that region requires an extremely wild imagination that some of us do not possess. 

[Al-shbaab has been deployed to Ethiopia, Finally.]

3 hours ago, galbeedi said:

The long awaited deployment of Al-shbaab to Ethiopia has finally happened.

THere is a big war going, but we don't have any media who has the capacity to get there and file some serious news. All we got is Youtubers in dark rooms showing us pictures and fake news. So, let us ret to analyze the info we are getting from the Somali regional security leaders.

 

Since the rise of Al-shbaab in Somalia  around 2006, they never attacked inside Ethhiopia despite the easy  access to  penetrate the border.  Najib Gardaad, a Nairobi based Kenyan journalist had written a long essay few years ago  to shed some light on how Al-shabaab selects its targets. He investigated how Al-shabaab refused to target Ethiopia despite the major wars that took place between the extremist movement and TPLF led Ethiopian army and the atrocities the Ethiopian forces had committed inside Somalia,

 

He debunked the false narrative which  had described the strength of the Ethiopian  army as the main reasons Al-shbaab avoided to engage or attack Ethiopia. He argued that a suicide bomber willing to die doesn't care whether he targets a hotel, military checkpoints or army barracks. Furthermore, the border between Ethiopia and Somalia doesn't have barb wires, walls or rivers to discourage those willing to cross. THe Ethiopian army and the Somali Liyu police forces only control roads that cross the border and sometimes make random patrols in some  area to intercept vehicles carrying contraband.

 

Mr. Najiib attributed the Al-shbaab attacks which reached as far as Kampala, Uganda and even Burundi as Ethiopian strategy to destabilize the economies of east Africa while they were growing to double digits. The Ethiopian economy was among the fastest in the world reaching 10% which was huge achievement. Mr. Najiib was lamenting about the constant Al-shbaab attacks inside Kenya which went from border towns to big commercial malls inside Nairobi. He even mentioned a local Somali owned airlines blown by a suicide bomber i his own seat which miraculously landed safely. He discussed the deep connections between former Al-shbaab leaders including Ahmed madoobe, Mahad Karatey and other who were in soome cases were captured and released from Ethiopian jails.

 

With Al-Shabaab controlling border districts within Gedo, Bakool, Hiiraan and Galmudug, why they never bothered to attack Ethiopia.? They have every excuse on the books to target Ethiopia, especially when their forces were inside Somalia. Yet, Al-shbaab seemed to direct their forces only to Kenya and Somalia. 

 

. If you are 17 or 18 years old  destitute and poor  kid in Bakool, Diinsoor, Qoryoolay, Jalaqsi or Dhuusamareeb, you will be delighted to be fed, clothed, trained and even offered a wife and get paid while they  brain wash you  as a  holly warriors. In fact, it is like joining the marines or national army.  THese young men do not decide who to kill or where to be deployed, they are blind mouse or a mad dog let loose among the targets chosen by their bosses just like mafia soldiers who are told to pull the trigger.

 

By now, anyone with two-digit IQ knows that these Wahabi mad dogs are deployed by foreign intelligence while carrying the name of Islam. Since the American people will not accept the deployment of their soldiers to these unknown places where they can't even find in the map, these crazy terrorists will do the job. Some are called YPG, TPLF, Boko Haram, Al Nusra or Al-shbaab in the case of east Africa. So, the deployment of Al-shbaab to Ethiopia has begun.

 

According to a colonel of Somali LIyu forces in Af Dheer and Liibaan of the Somali region of Ethiopia, this new Al-shbaab plans of attacks inside the region had started some two years ago when the war between the TPLF and Ethiopian forces started in the fall of 2020. They had already made the necessary contacts with the elders of the region, recruited foot soldiers and trained them in Jilib and Saakow in the Middle Jubba region which  is controlled by Al-shbaab. Just like the way  foreign intelligence operates, they transported their weapons deep inside the region and  buried them trenches. The boys were already inside after they concluded their training.

 

Sources inside Somali Galbeed describe these Al-shbaab attacks and movements as well calculated deployment that will last months if not years. Most of the people recruited are from Liibaan, Jarar and AfDheer regions. They belong to the sub clans of Ahmed Madoobe and the Gare community of Liibaan. These were the former allies of the TPLF regime that was deposed by Abiy Ahmed few years ago. According to these sources these forces are two groups. The main Al-shbaab forces with battle wagons and technicals had came from JUbbaland regions while the others were cells that was activated from Ceel Kari and Jarar.  This wasn't an ambush or hit and run clashes. The Al-shbaab force that crossed from Bakool area had descended upon a Liyu police chewing Qat all night and unaware of the situation. Close to 200 of those were overun and their weapons taken. Those who came from behind the Liyu police line had cut the highway connecting Godey to Afdheer, and as we speak while the border to Bakool is secure, Al-shbaab is already inside Afdheer region. After the conclusion of  war in Caato and Yeed, the LIyu crossed to Bakool and killed more than a dozen of civilians for revenge and accused them of harboring   terrorist group. If this is the attitude the Liyu to kill innocents, they will definitely face a long insurgency and hostile populace.

 

THere are two reasons that makes these Al-shbaab attacks deadly for Ethiopia. First the Liyu police traditionally is a paramilitary force trained by the TPLF to target the Somali people and mainly civilians. Few years back they achieved some success against the Oromo, but lately they couldn't stand a chance to similar forces with the same strength as the war between the Affar and Somalis had shown. THese kind of forces doesn't have any chances against Al-shbaab. The second dilemma, Ethiopia doesn't have a well-trained cohesive force anymore. The Amhara are concentrated in their region to fend of the TPLF attacks and save Amhara civilians from Oromia while provoking both Abiy, Oromo, TPLF and everyone else. If reports of Al-shbaab reaching west Hararghe are true, the Oromo itself will explode and Abiy might not have huge forces to deploy  over two thousand kilometers he shares with Somalia.

 

President Mutafe Cumar must build better forces and rely on his own strength than wait the Ethiopian army. Also, the ONLF who were trying to take over the Somali region had been sidelined by Mustafe. They don't have any chances of taking over, and must wait the next election in 2026. We don't know yet, but even the ONLF itself could be part of these groups since their bosses in Nairobi support the deployment of Al-shbaab from Kenya to Ethiopia.

 

Now, this new war could be very dangerous for some while it might bode well for others. Some of my friends believe that this deployment of Al-shbaab  to Ethiopia could be good news for Somalia and Kenya, and both of them might facilitate the movements of Al-shbaab from Jubbaland to Ethiopia. Others believe that the flat lands of JUbba can't protect Al-shbaab if the Somali forces and those from Jubbaland attack them and the mountain regions of Afdheer and Liibaan will be their new bases. Personally, I do believe that Al-shbaab can't survive inside Ethiopia and the only way they could move there is because of logistical support from Kenya, Jubbaland and the Americans. 

 

Here are some of the major reasons Al-shbaab had deployed to Ethiopia.

 

There are no concrete evidence to indicate one way or another , but there are political and economic reasons that point to certain directions.. The energy prices are going to the roof, and that false theory of climate change has been discarded by almost everyone. Both Kenya and Somalia want to extract natural gas and oil from the Indian ocean as soon as possible. In order to attract that investment, Jubba area must be secured. There were extensive meeting between Ahmed Madoobe and the British and American ambassadors for the last few months. I don't believe these guys are meeting him for drought relieve or building democracy. Madoobe had handpicked  the prime minister and will be moving to major regional moves.

 

Among those moves are to completely stop two major development projects from China to the region. The first is to stop the construction of the gas pipeline China wants to connect from Godey to Djibouti. Both Berbera and Garacad are shorter distances, but the Chines want to deal with someone like Omar Ghelle whom they have strong relations. The Americans want to stop this with help of Al-shbaab and ONLF. The later had already attacked the project and killed some Chinese and Malesian workers in 2006/07.

 

Second, the Americans don't want the Belt and Rood Investment (BRI) which will soon cross the Persian gulf port of Gowdar, Pakistan to the Indian Ocean and to Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan and deep inside landlocked African countries. Theses are involved couple of Somali ports, railways and roads. America want to shut down this now.

 

Abiy Ahmed might have survived the TPLF war, Ahmara non stop complaints and Oromo skirmishes, but will not survive this new geopolitical chess.

 

While we don't wish Al-shbaab or terrorist groups even to our worst enemies, if those who supply Al-shbaab with money, weapons, bombs, uniforms and other logistical help, want to  take them away from us and move to other places, we would welcome it. But if the move is to create another proxy war between Ethiopia and Somalia on behalf Egypt and other evil Arabs, may God help us.

The reactions of Ethiopia could be deadly as well. 

Nimankan dadkii inoo keenyay hadday ina dhafinanayaan waan soo dhaweynaynaa. 

 

A good analysis on what might be happening. We are all in the dark. But one thing  thing is for sure, their is something breweing in a hot pot.   I will yet call it Al-Al-shabaab and I will tell you so.  Abtigis, aka Mudane Cagjar is probably a good guy but do not ever forget that he was directyly appointed by  whom I have ever called the biggest neftegna (amhara colonial settler) Abey Ahmed.  Before that, the monster was Cabdi Iley.  I beg you to  question. Have their happended anything else since then?

 

If bush soldiers of ONLF who bravely I might say stayed in the Bush during the Cabdi Iey and AUN  martyrs like Nuur Huure Ciraqi  and nafte u hure the martyr and the intellectual Doolaad who went from European life to semi-deserts to Soomali-galbeed. When the Somalis rose and ONLF speeded up it attacks in 2007, aljazeera noticed it. The shrewd and vicous TPLF chose a man an tree electrcian who used to be called and then be asked to  climb up trees. He was chosed becouse of his absolute loyalty to a degree that even we Somalis with our culture we shocked. They launched a propoganda channel and made the whole area a no go area. Al-shabaab became the cow milk for TPLF. Diverse attacks by ALFR and OLF ONLF and 20 other various groups were blamed on Al-shabaab.

 

Galbeedi, Al-shabaabs strategy was been wellknown, they made calculated decision to withdraw from Mogadisu after a vicious campaign of liberation. They isolated themselves in the fertile regions and shifted their strategy to win the peoples hearts and brain wash the youth with toxic non islamic whabism. Why would they now venture in Ethiopia? Somethings doesnt add upp here. According my sources the IC with Turkey Told Mudane XSM "either to eliminate Al-shabaab or its you who will be eliminated by them, amisom will not stay forever". XSM told openly the people to brace them for war.  Hence why the many international trips. Turkish drones are landing in Somalia.   Farmaajo said the same thing but he was populist and lacked the backing of IC.  The IC strategt then was lets to contain them. They do not have sea port hence are not so dangerous. That changed with Afghanistan.

Alternative theories? Might it be die-hard ONLF soldiers  U-WSLF staging last ditch attacks and Cagjar who doesnt want aknowlidge that using the al-shabaab game to unite Ethiopia as the orders given to him?.

 

Rabbi ba og xadiiqda

 

 

 

 

[The dark ugly reality no one wants to see- Al-Shabaab and the dominance of wahabism in Somalia. Mogadishu under seige.]

well said Galbeed Maakhir, I will respond to you guys at a later time.

[Col.Cabdi Qaybdiid.... BUSTED.....]

On 7/14/2022 at 3:03 AM, Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar said:

And now 17 years later, the alleged mass killer Cabdi Qeybdiid claims to be a victim od his own. Waa adduunyo xaalkeeda. 

As your eedaadada  aun used to say "nin aan YAABIN AYAA YAABAY!. A warlord who taped his own warlordism in 1991 using the victim card. 

[Kowda Luulyo--Happy Independence Day]

congratulations to all somali people, from carta to jigjiga to all down to gaarisa. A great day for somalis, a day unity of and freedom from the brutality of colonialism.

[The dark ugly reality no one wants to see- Al-Shabaab and the dominance of wahabism in Somalia. Mogadishu under seige.]

As a parent, a couple of years ago during  foregin trip I visited some relatives of mine.  A young girl was completely disabled. As we were having the dinner the poor girl went nuts. She dragged the table and the casho-sharaf for me and my wife was completely destroyed.  The relative of mine simply bought a pizza and we usally commented on somali politics.  What amazed me what his complete deny of the situation. Out of courtesy neither did I mention anything about the girls condition. Thats how the somali mindset is. Ignore what you can, qari waxi la qari karo, but we have a saying, "waxii la qariyo qurun aa ku jiro".   While many here are busy commenting on Fahad Yasin,  or Farmaajo or Xassan Sheikh Maxamud and isolated fufu-lands that completeyt even lacks the basic requirments to give its sacred clan members basic water and education, no one wants talk about the big pink  elephant in the room.  We Somalis have tendency to be full of emotions but including me lack complete sense of honesty on describing the situation on the ground.  When the taleban literally stormed the Kabul the president fled  no Afghan political commentary would talk about the future.  We are not afghans. We are not pashtuans. We are Somalis.

But a foot-note, during a cabinet meeting headed by Rooble to adress security issues in the full company of all ministers asked the defence minister "wasiir, how are our armed forces in Somalia". A minister who I do not like to name who is famous for cracking jokes said  "what army,. heck I cant event go to ceelasha biyaha, yet alone to Baladwayne by car". The ministers laughed while the poor defence minister tried reply in the priestly cermonial way of "dear prime minister, the army is ready to defend the countrey". That night according to my source many folks went home terrified or fully aware of how things could unfold..

Somalia is a former failed state.Clan- Federalism was adopted  in order rid Mogadishu those from the arid cenral places of Somalia. It was created to defuse clan-tensions and was way 30-years of population who has only seen anarchy to go back to the fufu-lands and ask their basic rights. It was a way to give time to FGS rebuild vital instututions.  Even the the SNM clan-based triangle state seperatists have not been able to build a single road since the devestatating 1991-civil war.  Somalis say, and even the Koran affirms it, yaqiin, real facts on the grounds is gained by true insights. I visisted Somalia pre farmaajo and what I saw was a huge NGO-funded government.  A government guarded by emotional clan-actors by thousands of Amisom soldiers.  The roads linking Mogadishu to Gaalkacayo, baladwayne, Baidoa and to kismaayo are completely cut off.  I asked a general who guess what: Was working in his 80-ties about the state.  He simply responded "well we are under seige".  

While our glorious Islam and its traditional sunni islam, shafite madhab and asharite caqiidah have today a resennance in southern Somalia and are a strong factor in maths of Somalia the truth is that the 30-years of anarchy wahabism and its ofshoot al-qaida had a upswing. Hey who can judge them? No law no nothing.  Who remembers the days when Mogadishu was like a scene from a apocolyptic film like madmax where the town was divided by certain clans.?  Anyways  while Somalia is today bickering from Farmaajo, or Xassan Sh Maxamud or another non-actor, note the word "non-actor".   The Somali FGS is western funded giant NGO project that wants the important seas free from pirates and ofcourse a non--alqaeda state that inflicts terror on its citizens.   14 years or 13 years of Amisom and and war with Al-shabaab has taught Al-shabaab some vital strategies.  Some even go to shabaab-courts instead of state courts.  Jamal Osman was indeed a PR achievment for al-shabaab but al-shabaabs decesion to give an open interview and show its "state enabling" factors have made me deeply worried.   America has shown that it can negotiate with its devils. If they did it with taliban they can surely with al-shabaab. If Al-shabaabs secretive shura council  decides that they will cut the relations with the egyptian arab that hardly knows black Somalia  is on the map and denounce their alliance with al-qaeda that makes room for negotions.    The Western nations are now backslide, americans fifth fleet is in the china sea. Somalia is a secondary issue. The funding for Amisom dimimishing and if my reports are not wrong. Western nations are even contemplating a time-table for exit.

 

While I was in Somalia I noticed  a intresting thing. Many becouse of 30 years of  anarchy and free roam for wahabi ideoloogists, many in Somalia have in a way in a sub-cuncious way already al-shabaab mentality. The absence of a nation state and just put forward a few questions and you will see  that many have been burned by Ictisam (the mother of al-Shabaab), Those who declared jihad against Pres Abdullahi Yusuf but remain silent today. Wahabism is in crisis. It is sad to see that the FGS is not using its reresources to combat the ideology and to empower our traditional ulama ( I am not talking about those sufis who deviated in central Somalia).

In summary friends,  Farmaajo was marker for Somalia.  A D-man elected by celebortary gunfire in Mogadishu.  Imagine that to 1991. Uts sad that he squanderd his years of trying to get his men in god forsaken fufu-lands instead of playing the cermonalial healing president. The president that should have lambasted the clan leaders for not giving basic water and educatiob to its clan-enclaves  now called fufu- or bubu lands.   The only good thing he did was that he did not destroy Qatar-Turkish alliance.

But all of these people are non-actors. Once the dollars run out and Mahad Karataay, the al-shabaab khwaarij coming out to the media and denouncing Al-qaeda we might one day see them over run the capital.  Think about it, if billions of dollars in afghanistan and state army building could not do a thing why would it be diffirent in Somalia?

Somalis are muslims, Dr Baadiyow Phs dissertions offers the best solution for Somalia. In order for the Somali governmment to beat Al-shabaab they need to ideologically combat and re-educate Somalia,  an Islamic Somalia that denies Al-shabaab its core arguemnt of being the only legitmate islamic  is needed. Salary for the state Imams.Its sad to see when Saudi-Arabia finally admitted the menace ommited to this Ummah that we Somalis are stilll struggling to find out where did these guys come from.

See the interview and see how Mahad Khwaarij is actually in sarbeeb planning. Anyways, Fahad Yasin, Farmajjo, Xassan Sh,  ----  These are indeed non-actors.   Its time that the Somali government actually aknowlidges that the city is under seige. Many in this forum might not agree with that but hey  what are the facts on the ground and how do you define a seige?.  Is Somalia ready accept  Turkish troops and fully ally itself further?   Greater strategic decisions needs to be done.  Once trumpists are in power they will not care who they will negotiate with.  Pan-Somalism  intertwined with Pan-Islamism with Sheekh Xassan Banna and our local dariiqoyinka can only save us from this menace. Only Somalis. Not Amisom, no other force. Some might accuse of panicking, but think about it, these guys have been around for  14 years. They have shown that clan-discord can not destroy them.  So whats the solution? More ghost soldiers? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Rooblaawe wali soo taagan]

Honesty is what what we need. Farmaajo, was elected, 30 years ago the communist dictator destroyed the nation, socially, psycologocaly, in any way you can describe it. The election of farmaajo was an affrimation that that the civil war  clan-hatred was dead. Indeed a cousin to thar communist dictator that did not have the moral responsibility to hand over the power to the manifesto or flee the countrey the as mengistu did was elected. Farmajos election was a victory. But he failed. He succeeded in the foregin policy but failed utterly to realise that that the Somalia he inherited was a fragmented Somalia. Instead of trying to break the seige of mogadishu that Shabaab are doing all he did was try to get his men in power in isolted fufu-lands.  His lack of understanding that Somalia was a failed state and that his role according to the guidelines of the federal principals was try to teach the somali populations to demand basic water and education from those clan based "maaamulo gobooledyo". He even tried to do a coup. I am glad his gone. Lets face it,  farmaajo got the election in right time while he was dragging on.

 

The tension he created was not needed. He was simply not a man who had good advisers. He was naive, sitting with Abey Ahmed and Cafwerki in conferances made himself think that he really controlled Somalia. Nobody in this forum wants to aknowlidge this. But I would all want you to listen Jamal Osmans description of Somalia under al-Shabaabs rule. The despotic demonic cult rules Somalias with a iron hand. Ceelasha biyaha and jowhar, towns outside Mogadishu is under the direct controll of Al-shabaab and the al.shabaab is biding their time.

 

In the mean while, the Somali people do not have access to basic things, like clean water, free education. No one is raising these issues. In Summary, I am glad Farmaajo was elected, I am glad he stood by Turkey and Qatar, but I am happy is gone. We do not need naive leaders. We need people who realise who things are on the ground.

[Xasan Sheekh's first magacaabid]

Lets be reflective MMA. Weather you like it or not Hassan Sheikh knows that Somalia is a fragile state that needs reconcilation after the 25 years of the regressive somali civil war.  Farmaajos advisers were all 75 plus who served Barres regime and who were old or senile. But Frankly speaking, its all about instututions MMA. Hassan Sheikh knows the real politik of Somalia. When Jubba land under madoobe  entered the kismaayo with kenyan support Hassan Sheikh Mohamud realised he did not have the military strength or would it wise to engage in a political haggle. What did he do? He accepted him. He created Golaha Qaranka amaanka where all somali local leaders would host.

That symbolism showed that Somalia was going forward.  Farmaajo unfortunately waisted his time by trying gain absolute power in federal states. He extended his time. He depleted the public trust. While Barre was ousted he was welcomed by waited the political power  engaging in a never ending power struggle. Hassan Sheikh M  is a man of the ngos. He knows peacebuilding. He only fault his sorrounding himself by incompitent advisors. For example. Mahad Salaad is tainted man, a  man who did not deserve that positition.  HSHM  has learned from his misstakes and he can fully concentrate of Mogadishu and securing Mogadishu. Breaking the seige of al-shabaab. 

HSHM  handed over fully functioning mamuuled goboleedyo and state instututions to Farmaajo while Farmaajo handed him a secret army trained in Eritrea. This army probably comes from all somali clans but the secrecy arround it hurt him politically.   On the foregin policy of HSM is fully aware while sitting with Cafwerki and Abey that unlike them his state is fragile one and no hybris will enter his head. Unlike Farmaajo who really thought he had power when his own minister could not even travel to ceelasha biyaha. That hybris is gone. He is also a man willing to work with the outside world. Weather we like it or not Somalia is with its fragile state needs all the support it can. He will continue the alliance with Turkey.  In conclusion: Xassan Sheekh Maxamud will not waste 4 years by trying force  the federal state in submission. He knows the road-map is Mogadishu. Atmis demands  that the ICC-community demands that. His focus will be securing Mogadishu and the state instututions. 

Regarding the secceionists. Unlike Farmaajos emotional-based politics for apoligizing and then getting nothing. He knows how to deal with the extreme anti-somali clan oriented city state iss or fuu land.  He will deny them the money. No one in this forum knows but the hotell bills of Muuse Biixi during his horrendous American trip was paid by the federal government of Somalia. Nothing of that sort will happen.  Racist clanists will not receive support. The young youth or flocking to the Mogadishu and work and live in Mogadishu.   Thats how it should be.

The nepotism of HSM is gone. Give him 6 months,  I know as a somali nationalist MMA that you want a return to a strong central Somalia where somalism and pan-somalism prevails. We all want that. But the countrey my friend has gone the a vicous  civil war that I dubbed the "the regressive jahhiliyya war". We need healing.  Federalism gives the clan fanatics  a breathing spot.

Its time though that HSM and the federal government of Somalia actually gives information to the population of Puntland, and Koonfurgalbeed etc that they should demand clean water, education from their leader,   To sum it up. Hadii waraabi aas ku noqday dhuuso mareeb oo doodisa dhuuso mareeb iyo guriceel ka doodayo nabad waa la helay.

 

 

[Somali recruits in Eritrea]

MMA, sometimes official news are offical while sometimes the official news are dubious. Regarding the eritrean "somali armty in asmara the news are complicated and the bitter truth behind this news is baffling and somewhat bizarre and shocking.

Farmaajo and his crew literally wanted hijack the the small history of the federal somali republic.I dont not know. Did he get power crazy or did not he trust the defacto clan militias that make the federal somali armt in Mogadishu and who are majority from the southern Somalia aka not gedo. According to my un-official inside news Farmaajo asked the khabiith, the dictator and opressesor of muslims in Eritrea Cafewrki to include eritrean soldiers in Amisom and train 15 000 somali troops. 

 

Farmaajo dazzled by the cermonies of being a president and being receiced as one forgot that his federal republic of Somalia is a countrey or a republic on life support and healing from a 30 year long civil war.  Anyways cash-strapped Eritrea with no dollars in the communis african north korean state saw the oppurtinity in this. Millions of dollars for a 20 000 Eritrean troops in Mogadishu and that would be happily obliged the obey farmajo through cafwerki. The CIA and the western powers who created the little red-book for Somali leaders to follow called "the road map" and Turkey saw the dangerous outcome of this.  The turkish intelligence together with the cia directly adviced farmaajo but to  he simply did not want to listen. He thought he would be re-elected and the the re-election would give him the legitimacy to forcefully capture Mogadishu.

 

The story goes on. Do you remember when the horn african ambassador to Somalia met with Cafwerki in Khartoum?  A defentive  choice was given to the eritreans. The sanctions that the americans lifted would re-intruduced if an eritrean soldier set foot in Somalia. Afwerki who 7 years ago surviced a coup attempt dumped farmaajo and the idea of eritrean army roaming the in the streets of Mogadishu. The power balance would have shifted if the eritreans came and we would probably have had seen a civil war. The lack of definitive power-booster to either side is what is making Somalia slowly healing. The neutrality of Amisom is sacred  and its not non-interference in Somali politics is whats keeping the federal government together and stopping Somalia going back to the 30 years of regressive civil war.

Now begs the pardon, Why did Farmaajo hide that a Somali army was being trained in Asmara?  The anwer is obvious.  But whats more dangerous, imagine the guy gettting elected and having EPLF roaming the streets and taking informal orders from Farmaajo? That would be end for the self healing fragile state we are going through.  By the way? Did you guys know that 15 000 strong Somali community that solely compromise of  small clan related Mohamed Siyaad Barre  thrives in Asmara?. Most of red berets hailed from this.

A side note. Remember when Farmaajo almost called civil war and army refused to take his orders during his couop attempt?  The presidential advisors, 80 years olds from the Barre time called Amisom generals 20 times and tried to frame the legitamate opposition as Al-shabaab. While the fat african generals took their bribes they never breached the the non-interference code and simply answerd "they are nor al-shabaab and our mandate is cleary not to interfere internal somali politics.

 

Farmaajo was a populist, a man who grew up with the nomenclatura of Barres clan-regime. He never saw the ugly civil war. He and people like him literally belive that they and only they are Somalia in its abstract form.  Imagine if the guy would have been elected again.  Unlike HSM who lived through the evil days dark days of the 25 years of post Barre civil war,  He understands who fragile Somalia is.    Farmaajo made one good thing, and its that he did not stray away from our alliance with Turkey and Qatar.

 

 

[The peacefull transition of power marks the end post 1991 civil war. in Somalia.]

Sometimes, some events are game-changers. The fall of berlin wall and communism was such an event. I can today with 100 percent confidence say that Somalia entered a new phase when the first elections where held in Somalia and the TNG became the TFG. I would say say that post-civil war Somalia with USC SSDF SNM SPM and unarmed orgnisations like SNU are gone. That era past and buried. When Somalis elected a person who had affiliations with the ousted Barre that was stress-test for the young federal republic.  30 years ago Somalis were clapping the hands 1991 january but litte did thet know that society would literally collapse and we would have Somalia that reminds us from apocplyptic films like mad max with Mel Gibson.  Farmaajo failed, he failed utterly with his populism. He wasted his few years by trying to force the federal states to be vassal states under him. Little did he know that whole concept of federalism was created in order for the countrey to heal.

Everyone got a region. Instead trying harden the state instutions and becoming a symbol of change by demanding federal states to give clean water free education to the population he was seen as an uprooter.   Somalia is patronage state with funding coming fron the UN. He ousted the UN. The positive  and lasting effects of Somalia under Farmaajo was  his un-wavering alliance with Turkiye and Qatar. He never doubted and stuck with these gracious countries.

A close relative of mine openly supported Hassan Sheikh becouse he has firmer understanding how fragile the state is in Somalia. Hassan Sheikh saw the writing on the wall and recognised the Jubba land.  He then created the Security meetings where all regional states would meet.  His biography is one filled with working with NGOS with peacebuilding and his ties Islaax and sufism is commendable. Somalia faces now  two challenges.  Somaliland has no relevancy as the world sees it as a regional state within Somalia. Behind hum bug of the seccionusts the truth behind the closed doors Somaliland receives funding from FGS and demanded its share. What we southerners can do is commend the tribal 3 city state for having calm and security. Somaliland is a non issue. They are Somalis living in peace and should get every penny they rightly do so.  Its been 30 years, the younger generation of Hargeysaa are coming to Mogadishu, nobody cares anymore about three tribal cities demanding seperatism. Pan-Somalism alive.

1---The primary challenge to and a existential threat to FGS Somalia is undoubtlt Al-shabaab. Weather we like it or not, the terror group is more structural and has more dicipline as an as a blood thirsty organisation  thet gorges the blood of muslims. Al-shabaab have withstood Amisom and nothing is permanent as Barre said in a interview in 1978.  Amisom will leave, Americas battle fleed is leaving the middle east. If Al-shabaab cuts its relations with al-qaida and tries to potray itself as the taliban we really could see an afghabistan collapse. That collapse took weeks. In Somalia it would take days.

Security and securing a victory against all wings of al-shabaab, ictisaam  and establishing a culture of Somalis asking "where the hell did this ideology" come from is crucial.   The Civil war in Somalia has finally ended.  It is now time to end the khwaarij menace in Somalia.  Algeria went through it and the late Bouteflika defeated the takfiris in a bloody war. Turkey could here be more proactive. I do not see any reason for Xassan Sheeikh rejecting a military alliance with Turkey. They know how to the defeat an insugency, They defeated the communist-leninist PKK kurdish terror group that murderd consertvative muslim kurds and turks.  Xassan Shaykh needs to look for military assistance once the europeans and cadaanka cut their money and simply leave just as they did with Iraq and Afghqaanistan. That countrey my friends is Turkey and no one else. They sent Imaam Axmed Gurey 50000 cismaani mosqueteers (canisari)  and they could do it again,

Khadafi

 

 

 

[Spare us the charade and lets talk about the pink Elephant in the room-Election in Somalia.]

On 5/13/2022 at 4:04 AM, galbeedi said:

Khadaafi,

If we are under the trust ship of the UN, why our leaders spell it out for us?

Furthermore, how long do we have to wait until we could defend ourselves. all we need is general mobilization of the locals in coordination with the national army. 

Other than the criminal elements which could be defeated with an organized intelligence, Al-shabaab in almost unspent force. The elimination of the Gaalkacayo cell had shown us that Al-shbaab is about mafia style killings that could be exposed. They don't have huge standing rebel army, but highly mobile group that intimidation for the unarmed civilians. They are not even close 10% of the Taliban. Just unleash Fahad Yasin to the Bakaraha based network and you could eliminate 50% of the financers. WE lost two years of bickering and electioneering.

All you need is few determined security leadrs. 

Galbeedi,  Nobody has the chutzpa to say it openly? It always been like that,the manta we will build a  strong somali army. That army cracked under farmaajo along vicious clan lines.   Secondly Ustaad galbeedI. Al-shabaab has been a fighting force for 15 years, thats a long time. They have evolved, U mentioned bakaaraha, It is they are in controll of it. .

[The SNM - The most independent self funded guerrilla organisation]

No comment. Baala xoofto be I am happy your a proud in the S as a  Somali.

[Spare us the charade and lets talk about the pink Elephant in the room-Election in Somalia.]

With covid out of the blue my die hard habit of visiting the mosque and then the local somali cafe here in our nordic countrey after work has not gone away.Yesterday while I was sitting and snipping coffe our local news guy and our clique of coffe and politics lovers had a discussion. I usally stay silent. Everyone was from his cosy living conditions in a nordic countey was  talking about "Xassan Sheekh said that" Farmaajo said that.  Who said what and who and the tit for the tat discussions went along.  I left the table and gave an excuse to my so called "intellectual friends" and went home.  No Somali intellectual have the bolds or the chutzpa to say how Somalia is. Nobody wants to talk about the pink big elephant in in the room. Its  a bizarre world amongst us Somalis.

It has been 10-12 years since Amisom came to Somalia. When I last visited Somalia in 2019 and met Khayre and the speaker of the parliament I myself did not have the courage to say how things were. I had breif "isku sawir exchange with him"  What I saw was a government limited to Mogadishu, A government commanded by Amisom. The serpant and the terror group Al-shabaab had full controll of the countrey. Every road leading from Mogadishu to either these bantunistans or should I say maamul-goboleedyo, the road was cut of.  If you wanted to go to Baidoa then you had to take a plane. Imagine, the president of Koonfurgalbeed not being able to drive to Mogadishu.  I sat down  with a friend of my father who was now in his 80-ties and a general and who  was a prosecutor in the military  tribunal and who by chance was my  mentor and neighbor where I live had a dinner

A devout man of god from sunni sufi order raxmaaniya  order but a loyalist to the core  to what ever government that was in power.  He was delighted to see me and and me him. While security cleared me we talked and we exchanged some religous books He  began  as a soldier and then a policeman. I will not say further in order not to give any clues who he might be.  I directed my questions to him over dinner and he had the boldness and truthfullness to say how things were. He literally said we are encircled. They the terror group al-shabaab are now biding their time and have even infiltrated the government.

He even said, "xxx, ababa, dont you even realize that Somali society have been bitten by their venemous bloody ideology that you may see somalis who unwilling and who they themselves do not know about it have al-shabaab values.  Then  it struck me, Everyone in the Somali  cafes would criticise the government but no one even dared to mention al-shabaab. Some even fused our beutiful religion with some al-shabaab tendencies.  Nothing is permanent. D-day came to Afghanistan when the americans departed and everything collapsed. I called my xxx who was a minister at that time and xx said that every somali minister was watching the events unfolding. Rooble called the cabinitte and asked the bizarre question "how is the state of the federal government army". A minister with no portfolio and who is known for cracking jokes answerd "what the xx are you talking about, we cant even go to xxxx within Mogadishu". Everyone laughed, then came the silence and everyone went home, That day everyone sent corrupted money to kenyan banks.

Somalia is dictated by roadmap layed out by western governments and the UN.  Shaykh Sharif, Xassan Sheekh, Farmaajo, It does not matter, the next president has no mandate except either to heal the countrey or be power hungry grabber like farmaajo but he has to follow the road map.  Atleast under Xassan Sheikh the bantunistans that of maamul goboleedyo were created. The whole federal system was created in order ease clan tensions. Have we Somalis seen Somalis in galmudug demand clean water and free education from their clan elected leader? No?. Demonstrations against al-shabaab?  People even talking about them?  The venemous murderous terror bandits that hail from a ofshoot of the wahaaabiya  are now well established.  While americas influence is declining and Ethiopia weakended to even have a say about Somalia, the paradigm shift in the world is being felt in Somalia. Last month ago news came out that Amisom will be dismantled into another form, a limited one where the Somali army would play bigger picture.  Here comes another pink elephant? The same somali army that fractured over clan-lines over Farmaajos attempted failed power grap`?-

In conclusion D-day might come to Somalia. The sad thing is that the wahaabiyada terror group Al-shabaab swore allegiance to an arab who probably has problem pointing out  Somalia on the map. The taliban though never did that. Waale yabaaye, no one is willing to talk about the pink venemous elephant.In order for FGS to succeed they need to adress the terror group. They need mobilise  popular mobilisation units just as the Iraqis did when they eradictated a more blood thirsty monster, Daacish. Who ever gets elected needs to understand he is not a president of a free state.  Logic dictates that with large foregin troops on your land, albeit to help you, you are limited.  Al-shabaab have shown  that they can stay latent, their ideology after the 30 years of mayhem are drawing recruits. They have been able to regroup. They are not stupid or dumb. Their strategy now seems to bid their time.

Indeed its a bizarre world.  As proverb says "Nin aanan yaabin ayaa yabaay"

 

 

[Three dozen musharax]

8 hours ago, baala xoofto said:

I listened to Hassan Cali Khayre's speech, it wasn't bad. He made some good points. 

However, his comments about starting serious talks with Somaliland had me scratching my head. Under his Prime Ministerialship, he left no stone unturned to try to isolate Somaliland and stop all links with International Community. His Planning Minister even wrote to the UK and requested the UK to stop funding the Somaliland Development Fund. 

That is not all, he spent days begging the United Arab Emirates to stop its investments in Somaliland. Even went to meet the Dubai Sheikh in person to try to make his government relevant to the DP World deal. He requested for him to even sign the papers only to show that his gov't was involved somehow in someway. The UAE officials rejected completely. 

Somalilanders are particularly inward looking people who spend majority of their time talking about their internal politics and seldomly looking outside Somaliland. But when they are challenged, Somaliland respond. Somaliland has tremendously achieved a lot more in terms of its external relationship than it did in the 10 years before 2017. 

So for Hassan Ali Khaire to come on the podium and exclaim that he will make everything easy for Somaliland, if he is elected President of Somalia. It is a realisation that playing hardball does not work with Somaliland.

 

 

I am sorry to burst your ability to conventrate your analysys on the  three city tribal seperatist republic, call Somaliland call it Isa-@@k land, what ever you want but for the most Somali people your issue is a non-issue. A deadly insurgency is going in southern Somalia where a fragile federal government is starting to make it its baby steps. Facts on the table is that it is recognised.  Weak as it maybe, and lacks the security that Somaliland has an undeniable fact is that with recognition comes dictations on the internal affairs of a countrey. I dont know if can get rid of yourself with propoganda or sixirka of the SNM but as a person who knows what goes on in the federal government of Somalia, its a well known secret that hotell bills that Muuse Biixi sleeps in when he pays a visit to Addis, or the donations to Somalia that should go to to north is approved and stamped by Mogadishu. Thats the reality.  The hey day when the north could point the finger and say to the world  "hey, we have security while the south is it chaos" is gone. The FGS, weather I like it, or not is a fully recognised state. What made the leaders in three city- somaliland project go nuts is how they were delegated to to be informal maamul goboleed.  Forget the pr-campaign, the truth is that leaders of Hargeysaa met evert month the FGS and deliver the bills in secret while other bantunistans do not.  You might be a kid fed by hatred but belive, thousands of Somalis from Somaliland are in mogadishu doing buisness.   Its been 30 years of zombie minded saar beating of "aqoonsi" but the upper class knows thats gone. That project failed. What they now want is power sharing agreement.  Somalis will be Somalis.  Analyze your habits, your whole analysis on the elections came down to Khayre forbidding Dubai.  As Somali nationalist or Somali-land nationalist your concern should have been why on hell is Dubai trying buy up all ports in Africa? From Massawa to Assab to even foes in Puntland?  Why? To keep black somalis down.  Even the somaliland parliament understood this. 

[An in-depth Documentary about Somaliland]

 Another clan-obsessed documentary about three city states, fuufu-lands, bubu-lands call them what ever you want. Lets be honest to each other. Its a tribal enititey trying to to be seperate while other somali tribes in somaliland do not even agree with them. Nobody is dumb. The only thing I could say to to them as a southerner is that I hail them for the peace they have.

[Hours after meeting this rufyaan...]

What can you say, Ilaahay xishoodka nagama qaato. We approching 15 may, SYL days, I bet the founers would curse these people from their graves if they knew that their struggle have been hijacked by opportunists.

Personally, This is the reason its to hard to make a commentary on Somali politics, I dont want to poke the dead but I have said it before, in 2019 Mengistu the short midget amxaro khabiith was interviwed by VOA amharic and was asked by his legacy. He said "I did not turn the countrey into a Somalia". While Mengistu locked the weapons depot and shot Amxaaro generals who wanted to arm the Amxara people, Somalia  then president was arming clans just in order to stay in power. That says a lot does it not?

You wander into Somali cafes and the news is about what Farmaajo say, What did Xassan Sheekh say? or the cursed seperetatists 3 town bantunistans leaders say. The truth is that no one actually says the bloody truth. We have serpant, a venemous one, a terror group that no one discusses about and who are lurking in the bushes and who swore an allegiance to an arab who doesnt even know where Somalia is.  Even the taliban did not do that. We have a government that could be examplified by a old man nearly dying if he doesnt get his foregin oxygen. Nobody asks what will happen if the foregin oxygen ends. Nothing is permanent. We saw that  in Afghanistan.

The federal system with its 4.5 formula was a way to cool down tribal tensions. We do not even a public that demands clean water, free education from their "fufu-lands bubu lands" and what ever damned maamul goboleed thet come from.

Lets be honest to each other. Somalia has indeed taken a step forward but it has regressed to its pre-colonial mindset.