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The first deception. In the 2010 Somaliland election, the UCID party led by Faysal Waraabe and Mohamed Rashiid got 17.8% of the vote. This was the second defeat of the UCID chairman , yet in both those elections his chances were small. Faysal was the third party challenging a sitting president and former SNM leader and political heavyweight Ahmed Siilaanyo. AS such , Chairman Faysal was justified to try a third term after Ahmed Siilaanyo. With C/raxman Cirro as the speaker of the parliament and Faysal as the candidates , the so called tribal grouping that is claimed today could have been formed and the chances of Faysal winning would have increased, although it was difficult to dislodge the power from the corrupt coalition of Kulmiye. As soon as Ahmed Siilaanyo swore to the office, he hastily, without consultation or party convention , transferred the chairmanship of Kulmiye to Muuse Biixi. Yet , at time , no one in their right mind thought that Muuse could win or even survive a party dominated so many heavyweights like: C/caziiz Samaale, Hersi, Mohamed Biixi and others. Everyone considered him as an enforcer not a leader. The first move to replace Ahmed Siilaanyo was started in Djibouti. It all started when in November 2010, Ahmed Siilaanyo visited Djibouti. During the meeting of a non official gathering between Ahmed Siilaanyo and members of the Djibouti elite including former governor of the Djibouti central bank and the brother in law of president Cumar Geelle, suddenly Ahmed Siilaanyo , due to the ongoing dementia and other cognitive issues, fell asleep in his couch. Everyone , either shocked or surprised, but lieutenant Hersi who is both taking care of the president and managing the affairs of the office, calmly told everyone that the president is tired and some medicine he took made him sleep, and quickly moved him to a suite in the hotel. The business oligarchs of Djibouti who have both family, business and political interest in Hargeisa made their first move. C/raxman Cirro , through Aadan M. Waqaf, the vice chairman of UCID, moved against Faysal Waraabe and asked to give the leadership to Cirro and explicitly told him that his term as a chairman was over. Since Faysal was the man who schooled chairman Cirro, he refused and declared war to keep his party and property--the UCID party. The matter went to court , but due to clan pressures and other issues , the court decided that the party must hold a convention within three months and at the meantime , Faysal would remain the chairman. Also , Amed Siilaanyo did not want a war from Waraabe clan family in Hargeisa. By the summer of 2011, the wife of president Cumar Geelle and her Banker brother wired three instalment of $630,000 dollars to the parliament speaker C/raxman Cirro*(1). Another blood relative and businessman ,and chairman of SomCable Mohamed Aw Saeed --he has monopoly on all internet services in Somaliland--, put his bet on Kulmiye and their future leaders. Their intention was to have two horses in the race and also to eliminate the UDUB party who had the support of 35% of the people. Then president Rayaale refused to give monopoly to Ina Aw Saeed and offered the licence to him and another company called Telesom, owned by former company called Al-Barakaat which was later sanctioned by former president BUsh after 911. Due to the financial capital C/raxman Cirro recieved, suddenly all the chairmen of UCID party in the six regions of Somaliland simultaneously announced their resignation from UCID party led by Faysal Waraabe. In early October 2011, chairman Cirro officially launched the Waddani party, and 75% of the sitting UCID members of the parliament changed their allegiance to Waddani party that has to yet win legitimacy. C/caziiz Samaale, the vice speaker, spoke at the ceremony and openly asked Ahmed Siilaanyo to speed up the local elections which UDUB party requested to be postponed until a vote registration takes place , and encouraged the Waddani party to replace UDUB. FAysal went ahead and chose two energetic young man to be the next candidates of the party while he would remain the chairman. Due to the financial help from Jamaal Cali Huseen and others the UCID party became part of the final three. Without the tireless campaign of Jamaal and Mataan, Ucid could not have survived the cut. There was a big challenge within the ruling party to become the candidate for the next election. Muuse Biixi was challenged by MOhamed B. Yoonis and C/cziiz Samale. If normal convention would have taken place, definitely Muuse would have lost. He intimidated Siilaanyo and his cohorts at the palace and promised a bloody war if Ahmed Siilaanyo reneged his promise to make him the candidate. Ahmed Siilaanyo and his lieutenants were facing strong opposition from east, Awdal and now Muuse in Hargeisa. From 2011 and on, they were rulling through bribes and patronage. Whoever speaks against the government and his deteriorating health issues of the president , were either paid cash or appointed to one of the 70 ministers. Now, a renegade Muuse will join the opposition and would use any means necessary to frighten the crowd from Burco who is probed up by the west Hargeisa crowd. He started few fire bombs within the city and no one was arrested. Then a former deputy security minister joined the fray and accused the government of releasing dozens of extremists accused or convicted of terrorism. To silence him they raided his home in the middle of the night and wounded and arrested his body guards. Yet, the fire bombing continued, and finally Ahmed Siilaanyo caved in by fearing that these kind of nightly fire bombs might bring other criminals and extremist groups which might bring his government to instability.He was correct to silence him or Al-shabaab or might have taken advantage. Ahmed Siilany and his wife, the finance minister and the Djibouti businessmen agreed that Muuse must be crowned, and if Hersi, who was pushing Mohamed B. Yoonis whom he brought from Daarfuur, insisted, then he must be told to accept this decision or else. Hersi resigned and took with him almost a dozen ministers he hired before, and as the man who was running the government for five years, he thought that he will eventually bring down Muuse in the long run. The second deception. When Muuse won the candidacy his biggest challenge was not C/raxman Cirro, but the young incoming candidate of the UCID party that might take a huge chunk of his base. In order to sideline Jamaal , the UCID chairman was called to the palace and paid handsomely to expel Jamaal Cali from the UCID candidacy. HE went to Djibouti and got an alleged $300 from the business oligarchs. He was as also brought to the government's agenda and made part of the both local and foreign agenda of the ruling party. He was nominated to be part of Somalia negotiations and was also given his share of Dubai port bonuses. Just like last time, the court ruled that a party convention must be held and rejected the earlier convention that nominated Jamaal and C. X. Mataan. Finally Muuse has got his wish of facing C.raxman Cirro, a very weak candidate that never opposed any agenda or went against any proposal from the ruling Kulmiye. Chairman Faysal got both the cash and the revenge of defeating Cirro. Chairman Cirro was controlled opposition. In order to defeat Rayaale and claim the leadership once in his lifetime, Ahmed Siilaanyo has promised many people to replace him. Among them were Dr. Gaboose, Muuse Biixi, C/caziiz Samaale and C/raxman Cirro. Dr. Gaboose was too strong for the business oligarchs. For the last five years, Cirro never spoken or protested any policy by the government. He never spoke against the theft of the public property, the tribal hegemony of the ruling coalition , the extra judicial nature of the police and the courts or the grievances of the other regions namely Awdal. When the Awdal elders demanded equal representation and Ahmed Siilaanyo transfer it to the parliament , Cirro rejected and said this is not the right time. For all this years, he never marched or publicly protested any government action. Hersi , who helped Cirro and Waddani to make the final cut , sometimes threatened him to take away his speakership when he refused to play ball or objected the government agenda. By getting Hersi as a member, Cirro thought that he found the key to the palace. The most important aspect of his failure was that he did not understand the role of the opposition in Africa or in the horn of Africa. Since the government would not play by the rules and use public coffers to enrich and use to win election, , the role of the opposition is to expose them and fight them to every move they make. Your job is to replace them no matter what. If you are unable to replace them electorally, them you must work hard to dismantle their hegemony and monopoly in government , public institutions and security. Fight and keep fighting them until they become weak and discardable. The tale of the election. As the opposition, you already knew that the evil coalition will do anything to hang on on power. The first indication was the inability of the commission to release early results. That alone should have rang a bell to everyone. That was among some of the main reason the Kenyan election was overturned. The court found that " the irregularity in the transmission of results". They should have also alarmed by the huge child voters found in Gabiley , Burco and Hargeisa. In his first address when he rejected results and accused the commission of ignoring incidents that could damage the integrity of the election, opposition leaders started to prepare and challenge the results. For example , the Awdal based vice presidential candidate Mohamed Cali and his supporters were told to mobilize and ready for huge protests. Those in AWDal were also prepared lawyers from Nairobi and London to challenge the result and go to courts. With an email exchange i had with one of the leaders, I told him that they must take these crucial steps in order to win, form a coalition government or a second round election. Of course, here in SOL, I am expanding them for the readers to get the whole picture. 1-Do not accept the result. Do not accept the results until all polling stations were audited. The system were set up in a way that people could only vote in the district they had registred. So, you must verify the wrong people did not vote at the wrong polling stations. 2-Early mistakes broke the camel's back. Because of the huge discrepancy in the early transmission of the results, you must find the real reasons the results were changed. Everyone was celebrating as early results from the observers came in. 3- The Gabiley (Wanlaweyn district of 1960) must be checked rigorously. Of course Wajaale, Alaybaday and Arabsiyo are part of Gabiley district , yet 60,000 is impossible in that district. Most the people in Wajaale and Gabiley reside in Hargeisa and travel for family or business reasons. In 2011, when I visited Gabiley, almost everyone had left either for Hargeisa, Borama or Wajaale. They told us that over 300 families had left for Borama. Just last summer a friend told me that Gabiley is a ghost town, and he swore that you could find 5000 people in that town. Some of the things that took place was the flipping of the WAddani observers. IMagine the young man you chose to observe was given few hundred dollars by the oligarchs and he changed allegiance or failed to show up, especially in the coastal regions and Gabiley. 4-A million people registered. 780,000 people got their cards ,and 550,000 voted. That itself is huge discrepancy. People were told to take their card within two weeks or they will expire and you will never retrieve them again. Why make the life ofthe people difficult to get their card?. Why not allow people to come and pick through the year?. THe opposition must locate where these cards are at the moment. 5- Go to the courts. Go to the local courts and take your time to prepare your case. Get international lawyers from London and Nairobi to litigate your case. In fact, get those who were involved the Kenyan election and get publicity. 6-Your role is to replace them or disband them, or alla Odinga style. Since the ruling oligarchs in Africa do not play by the rules and abuse the public trust, loot the public purse and use the public coffers for elections , your job is to replace them as a government or disband the tribal and hegemonic system that is nurturing them. With all the money that poured from Dubai, Djibouti and government coffers , every logical person knows that these people were not prepared to lose. You must realize in the early stages as the opposition leaders that you will be dismantling an entrenched tribal system that must be either destroyed or replaced. The HArgeisa West oligarchs were sucking the blood from everyone since 1997. We just heard as late as 2015 that the world bank used to offer business enhancing grants, yet that was taking place in Somaliland since 1997, and these oligarchs were the only beneficiary As I said, the issue is not only about the election but also the dismantling of the entrenched oligarchs. Demand international and regional mediation which not only focuses the irregularities in the election , but also targets the police , security and military which is intended for reform, and must reflect the entire people not the only the corrupt coalition. Eventually, as Railla Odinga did in 2008, you must force them to make a national coalition government that shares power with the opposition. With the party supports across Somaliland , now is the time to pressure the ruling click. With inflation skyrocketing and looting of public land and corruption, now is the time to dismantle these people. Letting them rule again is rewarding thieves to the crown. In the end, do not give Muuse Biixi the badly needed legitimacy. He must earn every inch of legitimacy by accepting reform after you conceded or the protest will continue. They can not keep shooting peaceful protesters or things could get ugly. That was the move a real opposition would do. Some of you would say that, my desire is to push the instability of Somaliland on the brink, but my intention is to deny impunity and create something that could have been shared by both the opposition and the ruling class which would have led to a real reform. THe problem was the man who supposed to lead the opposition was a member of the ruling oligarchy for a long time and his intention was to create and form something similar of the Kulmiye party. With all the corrupt politicians of the last twenty years joining Waddani including old farts like Ismaaciil Buuba, chairman Cirro wanted to created corrupt coalition. So what did Cirro and the boys did after the fact. While those in AWdal were planning their next move to challenge the result, Hersi H. Cali, Aadan Dhoola Yare and C/qadir Jirde started already a process to negotiate and recoup some of their money lost in the campaign. According to sources, Hersi met, Mohamuud Hashi, the palace minister and others from the Siilaanyo tribe in order to calm the waters and push the opposition to accept the result, but also the to get back over a million dollar he spent on the Waddani party campaign . As a young leader who has his political future ahead, Hersi had already decided to move ahead and made interviews that contradicted chairman Cirro by saying that they will accept the result. My sources told me that chairman Cirro was offered undisclosed amount of money to him personally by the Biixi camp , and most of that money was wired from Djibouti to Nairobi. While Cirro has built a very huge party through his low key maneuvers and negotiations, he was never a real threat to the ruling class. People familiar with him said that Ahmed Siilaanyo and others had sent wrong signals that reassured him but also disarmed his ability to challenge them forcefully. Rather than fight them as a real opposition that was willing to fight them on every inch and make them vulnerable, he got comfortable with their agenda of silencing him politically while pretending to work with him. Even before the election started he lost his last card to stop Kulmiye. Finally Chairman Cirro lost or had thrown his last card . When the parliament held a vote to replace him, his coalition lost 39 vs 38 against Baashe , a Kulmiye member who made chairman Cirro life difficult during the last five years. After careful monitoring of the video in the chamber, it was apparent that , the Waddani coalition had won the vote 39 vs 38 . THey had the opportunity to challenge the result and reconvene the members since the momentum was their side. There were a lot of members who were sitting on the fence earlier, but willing to switch allegiance to Waddani this time around. Rather than push the issue and keep the parliament speakership in order to use it for the future if they fail to win the election. Chairman Cirro conceded and gave to Baashe . The Parliament would have been a place to challenge even the election results or for the future impeachment of Biixi if he transgresses. He said " Xashkaan tagayaa oo waan ka ducaysanayaa labadan nin'. They even told him that in 2010, before the election Ahmed Siilaanyo went to Hajj and after that he won the election. The strange thing was for the last three months of the campaign he wore white KHamiis and and put a long " tusbax" in his neck looking like a Suufi.Who knows, maybe those Suufi guys he associated with might have told him that they seen him as president and told him to do all these strange things( Qaar baa malaha waxay ku yidhaahdeen waxaan ku aragnay adigoo Madaxweyne ah). In the end, if his last message of saying that " A blood will not be shed on my own ego" is genuine, then he must be a God fearing man who should not have entered the corrupt oligarch system that has taken place in Hargeisa for the last seven years. The good people of Somaliland were willing to participate and vote in democratic manner, yet it was the politicians who decided to travel the tribal road. THey would have addressed and courted people by city or region without calling the tribes, but they intentionally decided to promote tribal car and politics. IN 2010 election, you would not see RAyaale going to election halls with banners proclaiming the allegiance of certain tribe. Even though Siilaanyo started his journey in the town of Garadag, he did not campaigned like Cirro and Muuse. It was really ugly and tribal all the way to the end. Finally, the election is over and Biixi won, but in order for him to succeed, he must dismantle the tribal coalition that they and the Burco boys has created. THey should no longer lead army , police (the vice police chief is from Biixi camp) and security, finance and foreign policy, commerce and all foreign aid financed agencies. He must dismiss the police chief who allowed mayors, ministers and others to arrest those who oppose them or dislike. " Mayorki Berbera ayaa hebel xidhay" that is what you hear every day. The police and the courts must be independent , and the habit of elders, mayors, and ministers arresting people at will must end. THe warlord military chief who is in charge of the army for the last twenty years must be also replaced. The corrupt coalition has always talked about representation and equal distribution of power, yet they never vacate one single seat. When they tried to pamper the Sool people and Khaatumo, it was Cali Waran Cadde from West Burco who vacated his ministry of interior seat. When chairman Cirro was replaced as the speaker it was him who vacated the seat for Sool people. Why not replace the corrupt finance minister or others from the oligarchy?. Why Saleebaan Gaal vacate the Guurti chairmanship to Cali Kh. Galayr? YOu can not fool people all the time. It was Ahmed Siilaanyo who in 2009 openly said he will negotiate with Somalia. He signed the American led memorandum of understanding that will lead to unity, yet these same people were accusing others of taking to Somalia. Real reform must take place and the evil coalition must be dismantled. That must be the real job of the coalition. They must elect a temporary leader who only leads the party at this transition period. This person should not be from Hargeisa or even Berbera, the home of the chairman Cirro, because these groups had proven to be weak and corrupt. So far we have seen Cali Waran Cadde and Cirro, who were not resilient under pressure. I would put Hersi or Mohamed Jamac Abgaal from Awdal as the interim leaders, and if the west Burco guys want to try one more time, they must bring a real leader who is capable of dismantling the coalition or others must be given the chance. Who knows, looking back , maybe the people of Somaliland had missed a bullet or a weak leader who would have acted indecisive and who would have made the system more corrupt . Few years ago i said that , " how come this man is weak both in his speech and manners, and yet , he is not even 70 years old". Others say that because of the fear certain segments of Somaliland have for West Burco, weak characters like Cirro are the right person to sell. I am not kidding , but a very prominent member of UCID party told me that the West Burco is like H/G of Somaliland and a lot of people fear them their domination. They reside in Hargeisa, Bebera, Burco and Sanaag, and with coalition of AWdal coalition "Afarta Gabiley joogta anagaa soo qaqabanaynaa, malaha cabsidu waa run". Despite all the the election talk, the Somaliland election is much fairer than most in the region including the Kenyan one. So, despite all the problems, the people might have moved on the right direction. My main observation was the shortcomings of Cirro and how a real opposition would have dismantled Biixi and company.