galbeedi

Somali regional leaders are implementing Ethiopian plans with 100% accuracy.

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galbeedi   
 
 

This article was poster in September, 2008.

 

According to a source with intimate knowledge about the affairs of the hilltop palace of Meles Zenawi, the prime minister of Ethiopia, who is not willing to be quoted due to the sensitivity of the issue, Meles has commissioned a committee of Somali specialists early this year to come up with a strategic analysis and a menu of options with respect to Ethiopian national interest towards Somalia. The committee chaired by Ethiopia´s foremost expert on Somalia, Dr. Alemu Tekede, minister of state for foreign affairs, comprised senior officials of the ruling EPRDF, several military generals and security and intelligence officers. 

According to the source, after five long months of deliberations, the committee submitted to Meles a well-thought-out \"red\" dossier containing confidential policy proposals in last August. The committee of experts persuasively argued that the reconstitution of Somalia to its pre-1991 status would not serve the national interest of Ethiopia. Furthermore, the committee emphasized the possibility of landlocked Ethiopia becoming \"sandwiched\" between two hostile countries, i.e. Eritrea in the north and Somalia in the south, underlining Ethiopia´s vulnerability to gruesome civil-war and disintegration if the current Ethiopian efforts in Somalia fail and the country fall back to the hand of ousted Islamic forces. The committee further emphasized the possibility of Ethiopian Muslims becoming influenced or radicalized by Somalia´s Islamists which could ultimately ignite a devastating religious war in the country.

The committee recommended the following propositions:

1 A two-state solution for Somalia along the pre-independence colonial boundaries. The committee suggested the Ethiopian government play a lead role in advocating for the international recognition of the breakaway republic of Somaliland.

2 Southern Somalia (former Italian Somaliland) to be divided into four federal regions in line with ethnic based Ethiopian federal system, namely, Puntland, Hawiyeland, Jubbaland and Rahanweinland.

3 The Somali region of Ethiopia to be \"isolated\" from the rest of Somalia, and limit to the extent possible commercial and traffic links between the Somali region and Somalia.

According to the source, Meles has discussed the proposed two state solutions with Rayaale Kahin, the president of Somaliland, Abdillahi Yusuf, the president of the TFG, and with Mohamed Gedi, the prime minister of the TFG, in separate meetings held in September in Addis Ababa. While Mr. Yusuf rejected any discussion on the subject, Mr. Rayaale has praised the initiative and committed to deploy ten thousand Somaliland troops in Mogadishu to work with Ethiopian military forces to help quell the growing insurgency in the Somali capital. Mr. Rayaale also assured Meles that Somaliland will help Ethiopia in subduing the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), a Somali rebel group based in the Somali region of Ethiopia.


According to the source, Mr. Gedi began to entertain the two-state notion after the rift between him and Mr. Yusuf reached to a point of no-return, though he reportedly rebuffed the idea in the initial discussion back in September. The relationship between Yusuf and Meles has deteriorated since, according to this knowledgeable source.

Subsequent to the September discussion between Meles and Rayaale, a Somaliland delegation comprising ministers of foreign affairs and finance and chief of staff of Somaliland army held several meetings in Addis Ababa with Dr. Tekede and the chief of staff of Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF).

The Somaliland delegation has agreed to send an advance team of military officers to Mogadishu to pave the way for the eventual deployment of

 

Somaliland troops in Mogadishu and to extradite to Ethiopia members of the Ogaden clan residing in the territory of Somaliland. Ethiopian government believes that the ONLF is drawing support from Ogaden businessmen and some segments of the Issaq clan who largely hail from the Togdheer region of Somaliland. In light of these discussions, Somaliland was given the green light to secure the borders of the former British Somaliland.

According to the source, Meles has taken into confidence members of the Ethiopian opposition parties who have fully endorsed the proposed two-state solution for Somalia.

 

With the blessing of the Bush Administration, Ethiopian troops invaded Mogadishu and much of southern Somalia in last December. They were successful in overthrowing the radical Islamist dominated regime of the UIC and in installing divided and unpopular TFG.

His troops bogged down in the messy quagmire of Mogadishu where the remnants of the ousted Union of Islamic Court (UIC) continues to wage Iraq-style bloody insurgency, Meles is understandably frustrated with the apparent failure of the internationally recognized but toothless fledgling Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in pacifying the tumultuous Somali capital. The Somali experts in Addis Ababa view the two-state solution as a vital long-term strategy for Ethiopia´s national interest.

 

 

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galbeedi   

Well, many Somali tribes who  thought that by forming a tribal enclave will amount to finding gold in the Somali civil war were mistaken. 

 

There strange thing was as many of us were traveling through Addis to reach the home land , they treated us like kings. They wanted our money , and our country as the same time.

 

Since We are still alive, we must dig ourselves out of our own grave. 

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galbeedi   

C/laahi Yusuf has made mistakes in his early years, yet while he used the Ethiopian army to defeat the Islamic courts, he knew the Ethiopian plans more than others. As soon as President Yusuf took over MOgadishu, the EThiopian government immediately started to undermine his efforts to build Somali army and dismantle the opposition. 

 

A man familiar with Yusuf C/laahi told me in 2007, that he had power and prestige while he was in Baidoa or when he was in his way to Mogadishu, but as soon as he took over the capital , the Ethiopians opposed his plans immediately and begun to weaken him. No we all know the main reasons behind the Meles plan. 

 

C/laahi Yusuf Puntland ayuu hagaajistay, laakiin fikirkii sare ee ah in Qaranka la soo celiyo kama uu tegin oo waa kii markiiba u gudbay hawshii sare.

 

Taariikhdu sidoo kale waxay sheegaysaa Adeerkay Daahir Rayaale in uu rabay in uu Soomaali wiiqo.

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Samafal   

Galbeedi, Ninyahhow let's for the sake of argument say that what you posted is correct although you provided no reference, so what is the solution? dismantling federalism?  Falling back on centralised government perhaps? But Siad Barre's was strong central government, and Ethopia did have big influence then, or not? Remember SSDF, SNM, USC? These were our downfall so you see central system is not a panacea.

 

 

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To my knowledge and reading and some personal knowledge there seems to be truth and fiction all woven in emotion filled prognostication here. The fact that the late president Abdullahi Yusuf is one who wanted well for all Somalis, where ever they are and which ever clan or tribe belonged to and tried to make it a reality to the best of his capacity and situation he inherited is with no doubt. But lets see his opinion and wish some spoke openly some descerned: Ethiopia Somali - He was long convinced the the Ethiopia Somali will have to be in Ethiopia and succeed there. Even in his angry confronattions with Ethiopia and arrest by Mengistu, he did not change his views on this. Meles was convinced of this stance long ago. 

 

Somaliland - He saw as positive that there is a government and order in the first place, regardless of what follows. He was convince that by offering confederation (Somalia and Somaliland) or federal system both with changed regions added some force threat/pressure and incentives he could have one territory/country. There was no situation or means to start with this issue. He had contacts among the tribes so can be used for pressure when time comes. Accusations from Mogadishu parties that Puntland should wage war against Somaliland if we are to accept Puntland leadership was fake since what the ICU did was the same, that is head to Mogadishu first. There was actually a joke, but serious question that some Somali official asked Meles how Meles accpted Eritrea independence/separation when his own mother is Eritrean. He told him the bloodshed had to stop. No mountain or river to claim as ones country is worth the lives that was being paid.

 

The late president Abdullahi Yusuf had same, that if the price in human terms is going to be high, it will bring total break up of Somalia, same as Eritrea was close to bringing total break up of Ethiopia. Historically Somaliland and Eritrea are exactly the same: Eritrea has same people as ethiopia, but was colonized by Italy separately. Somaliland has same people as Somalia but colonized by British empire, separately. As empires were winding down Eritrea was made to join Ethiopia and Somaliland joined Somalia. The most of independence Eritrea achieved was federal state, but Somaliland had independence. Even though both had colonial borders, by the time Africa decided to keep colonial borders Somaliland was in Somalia and Eritrea was in Ethiopia.

 

President Abdullahi Yusuf had one disagreement with Meles, actually it was not with Meles, but with the Ethiopian military. The disagreement was regarding the south west and central Somalia flashpoint Kismayu. Due to this disagreement the Ethiopians left Kismayu and area in couple of days. The disagreement involves the Os and Ms which have quite an influence and contact with Ethiopia and were not happy ot accepting of TFG. In central Somalia it was choice and preference of governors since the warlords some had joined the TFG campaign, but wanted bigger reward than the president wanted them to have.

 

If you think Somalia is the easiest country to dismantle, Even if you are convinced that is what Meles wanted, you are wrong. For Meles Djibouti was easiest. Even with voting, Djibouti could always have voted to join Federal Ethiopia in the majority.

 

What all the Internet analysis and pile of some true some false information cannot and will not tell you is that All these persons in leadership at the time from Somalia, Somaliland or Ethiopia have in person seen and experienced the fact that a small province or tribe can bring down empires or countries that seemed unshakable in some days. Politics is also the art of the possible and not the emotional diatribe. The late president Abdullahi Yusuf could not be arguing with Meles about Somaliland when he is having difficulty and was almost impossible for him to enter Mogadishu.

Be practical, even when its hard to accept the theory.

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