Jubaland; Although being a relatively new state in terms of Somalia's independence seems as if its in search of pure and utter autonomy.
But the question is why? Can Somalia ever surrender its southern coast and second largest port to Kenya?
Though let's be honest, in terms of independence, Jubaland's urge and determination in search of self-governance and pure sovereignty can only mean WAR and DISASTER up North. This would mean Somaliland would need to fight even harder for recognition. Not only will the air up north be rigged in deep pessimism, but Jubaland's stance for independence will ruin the dream, that of course....never was-
The chairman said , " all 1600 polling stations had submitted their results and have been counted".
Dhamaan waa la soo wada tiriyey oo degmooyinkii ay ka baxeen ayey ku soo noqdeen".
They have to go through the second stage of counting at the district level if thee is dispute.
By Monday night everyone including the public could have got the results.
Here is how this election could have been finished or early results released Friday.
Here are the rules stated by the commission itself:
Here are the rules of the election commission which was stated before the election.
Here is what the chairman said:
First , " Marka lixda maqribnibaha codbixinta sidaa loo xidho ,goob walba oo cod laga bixiyey waxa jooga oo qol lagu soo xidhaya afar qof oo komishinka ka tirsan oo tirinaya iyo muraaqibiinta saddexda xisbi qaran u jooga goobaha, marka ay tirinta dhameeyaan , waxa ay ku dhawaaqi doonaan natiijada hordhaca ah ee goob kasta, komishinkuna waxa ay ku dhwaaqi doonaan natiijada hordhaca ah"
"As soon as the polls close at 6pm , the four members of the election commission and the three reps (Muraaqibiin) of the parties will be closed in a room and they will start counting. After they finished counting, everyone including the party reps will be given the results of every polling station and the preliminary results of every station will be announced".
My friends that was the rule. The early elections , especially those held by Daahir Rayaale administration, there were no voter lists or even bio-metric cards. People counted what ever they found in the boxes and no counting had taken place in the rural or village level. All boxes were brought to the district level, and usually it took five to six days.
This election was different. Just like in most western nations the system was designed to release the early results at that same night. Since each of those 1600 hundred polling stations had the same staff and rules of counting, all results could have been known Monday night.
Do not be fooled by the commission statements that " since Hargeisa is huge place it will take longer to count". Of course it will take more time after you bring all boxes from over three hundred polling stations, but at polling level you have exact same staff. If Awdal had over hundred polling stations, HArgeisa had double. That means every station has the ability to count and send it's results Monday night. The so called 200,000 hargeisa voters are spread out to hundred of polling station.
The problem is as soon as the early results came out the commission decided not to announce , but use delaying tactics and pretend nothing has been counted yet " Hargeisa oo degmo weyn ah weli lama tirin" was an excuse used. He did tell that, but it was already counted, but he should have said that all results are in , and what remains is double checking of the results.
Saeed Cali Muuse is the protegee of Mr Adami , the defense minister who was the election chairman in 2003. Mr. Muuse, the man who said nothing of concern had happened , is one of those hungry diaspora members who is probably willing to cash in.
Insiders are telling us that the day the East Burco and West Burco community reached agreements to cooperate and build brotherly and neighborly situation in their regions, Kulmiye had panicked and started fraud mechanism to steal the election. Ahmed Siilaanyo won over 70% of Togdheer, yet now it seems Waddani is leading. Even Some Suldaans from West Hargeisa had threatened the East Burco guys demanding the it's their turn and they must give the " Hagbad" to Kulmiye.
There are huge forces that would not allow change of government. The cable company of ina Aw Said, which is financed by Djibouti banks had spent millions to keep the monopoly. Reliable sources said that in Awdal alone he spent $450,000 dollars. His representatives in Awdal had bought thousands of cards. He paid and moved people from Djibouti and gave them those cards he bought from Awdal. His reps were chased from Rays Hotel and other places openly buying cards from poor people.
Dubai World Ports and UAE would not accept any renegotiation or cancelling of their military base. The war in Yemen is getting bad, but the UAE is concentrating to keep South Yemen and Aden in their hands. They even refused the relocation of President Maansour Hadi from Jeddah to Aden.
I want to conclude that this election result could have been known just like in most places in the world, and if there was any disputes , recounting would have taken place.
Why take six days or even three days?. I think this commission has created a mess.
If they have announced the result Tuesday Morning everyone would have swallowed and moved on. If there is dispute, then do recounts. Yet, they tried to be in the news and make useless news conferences to be irrelevant. Rater than act quickly and and get out of the stage, they decided to make the burden of proof bigger. Why even have spokes person.
You done your job, people had voted, then announce and disappear. Mr. Iman has created a mess and he does not know how to get out of this mess.
There are clear indications that this election could be rigged through different means. Here are the main reasons that this election could compromised in a way that hasn't been done before.
1- Law voter turn out of the actual registered voters.
This could mean many things. In many regions the difference between those who registered and those who collected their cards are huge. Almost 30% of those registered did not collect their cards.
Then, among those who collected their cards few months ago, another 15 % did note show up to vote. In fact in Awdal 20% of those who had cards did not vote. In some regions 40% of those registered few months ago did not show up.
2- Where are these cards?
Did Somaliland election commission locate these cards of the absentee registered voters?
Why these voter cards are showing up every where?. Even Puntland had some sequestered voter ID cards. Puntland authority could intercept ballot boxes intended for the polling stations or those filled with ballots, yet they got actual voter ID cards.
Isn't the voter ID cards belong to the individual , and unless you take away from the person who owns, how could they got?. Puntlnd alone had almost up to 60 cards.
Are these cards traveling by themselves? These questions must be answered by the commission.
3- Why buy voting cards from the poor people and for what purpose.?
The Somaliland police had intercepted hundred of cards bought from the streets for as law as $10 dollars and as high as $100. All indications are that the ruling Kulmiye is behind these schemes. What is the use of these cards?. did they discard them or use them for nefarious reasons?
4-- The so called bio-metric system might be beaten by insiders.
After people marked their ballots and put inside the box, there should never be disputed. Actual recounts could easily indicate who voted and for whom, yet there are reasons for people to be suspicious.
In many places the biggest threat is parallel ballot boxes that could replace the actual boxes. In Gabiley, Hargeisa and western Sanaag where Waddani party representatives were missing , Kulmiye paid escorts were the only ones who were left alone to transport. As Maakhiri ,here in SOL indicated ,these systems might not be as good as advertised.
5-Waddani rallies were bigger than Kulmiye in many places.
If you look the party rallies , especially in the east , the Waddani rallies were bigger and stronger. It seemed the whole country was Waddani, yet we see close calls in Togdheer and many other places.
6- Mohamed Aw Said factor.
This businessmen has monopoly in Somaliland fiber-optic internet access in Somaliland and he want to remain the sole provider of LTE network with modern features. Many other companies tried to inter the market by trying to pull fiber-optic cables through Oman but was rejected. In fact the minister who signed that deal was fired immediately. Through another telecom company he is making a killing. He is charging hundreds of dollars for internet access.
Folks, this man could buy anyone for the right price. He was In Awdal with big cash and he did distribute to elders and others. If I were the opposition, I would check the movements of huge money being transferred from Djibouti to Hargeisa or individual accounts in Dahabshiil and Dubai. I will watch closely the commission and it's chairman. One thing this election thoufght is that everyone could be bought for the right price.
7- Gabiley must be disqualified.
I am not making this up, but in Gabiley there are no more functioning government their. In the Last municipal election they literally brought the ballot boxes and divided among the clans in secluded building .
It had four mayors for the last seven years. Even one of them made " Tahriib" or could not be found. Every box and ballot from that region must be investigated. Make sure ballot boxes are not replaced with Kulmiye boxes. This people are really crooks.
Finally, the tradition of Kulmiye will not disappear. This people got rich of the public purse and will not satisfy unless they got the whole " Xeedho". If there was " Booli-Qaran" houses in Mogadishu in the late eighties , the Hargeisa one is much bigger and daring. Unlike those in Mogadishu, they are not even hiding. They have sold every public house, school yard, park, and even the national theater built by the Chinese. Folks, they will not let go these honey combs.
If they lose power all that ill gotten gains might be scrutinized. for these people , it is do or die. They will do anything to hold to power., besides, throughout their tenure they had never done a fair election.
If a change does not come to Somaliland, expect bad things from these bad actors.