Sign in to follow this  
Saalax

World Bank Poverty report on Somalia: Somaliland region(NW) poorer than Puntland

Recommended Posts

Samafal,

 

I do not know large businesses affect the overall middle class income, but one issue that I have been told many times in Somaliland is the effects of the Telecom companies in the economy. In fact I was trying to write about it for a while.

 

For example, the Telesom owned by Al-barakat , and Somtel which is owned by Dahabshiil are making a killing. In any part of the world , utilities, telephone and cable are regulated and taxed accordingly. There are commission to check their rates and charges. In Somaliland they set their own rates.

A friend who just came from Borama told me that people deposit two dollars a day for telephone service and it eats up quickly. On average , poor people pay almost $70 dollars a month. If you talk too much and use for business it could reach $150. If you add internet data it is hundreds.

 

Yet, no one is regulating them. Every young man and woman has a telephone. Furthermore, they will fight to the nail if any one tried to bring a internet competition. Dahabshiil is the monopoly. Some people tried to pull a cable from Oman, and when Siilaanyo and Dahabshiill found out they did stop immediately and the minister who signed the deal was fired. Certainly , there is huge concentration money i this companies. He told me they fire and hire ministers through their lobbying power.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Galbeedi,

Point taken, apology accepted, and offered in return. I think deep down you are a decent run of the mill person, potentially misguided, but well-intentioned, and I will take back the amateur personalyses granted you could be persuaded to refrain from hasty, rash postulations, and being all over the map, esp. when discussing subjects beyond your metier, which I find rather infuriating.

 

Truth be told, I am not in the least bit interested in Somali politics, however the report attracted my attention for two reasons:

a) it contains measurable trendies in the Horn, and

b) it highlights the sufferable, desperate conditions under which people are living.

 

That breaks my heart. That interests me. And I could not care less about anyone’s political persuasion. I am more concerned about the young Somali student with no discernible future, and the prevailing hopelessness in the region.

 

But I realise none of that interests most ‘cos many are physiologically jarred.

 

By all means, criticise away at your heart’s content ‘cos that is part & parcel of being one with the people. It would be a missive on your part to do otherwise.

 

And by the way, for the record, and based upon my knowledge of the regions, and I do know of and about both regions, I would argue Northeast has larger concentration of nomads than Northwest, but ‘cos I do not have actual data to cite, I will therefore leave it till verifiable data has been published by yet another NGO.

 

Oodweyne,

I will read your note tomorrow. Could not keep it short, could you?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Illyria,

 

No worries, mate, take your time. But please read the report, first. it's only 134 pages! And while you are at it, read the how the regional "Data Samples" are different to each other in-terms of their size.

 

And once you do that, then, then allow your statistical understanding to kick-in in your thinking, particularly, how in any statistical calculation the first issue is that of the "size" of the data (or the sample) that needs to be ascertain.

 

Hence, how large (or small) your data (or sample) is, is the most crucial first issue that will need to be determined. I hope you will pay attention to that.

 

And lastly, I am afraid I was pressed for time and therefore I didn't had the time to "keep it short" (as it were). however, I hope that shan't inconvenience you to say the least. :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

See, Galbeedi, now you are getting it. Monopoly eliminates startups & kills completion, and by extension narrows wealthy distribution, which in turn shrinks the middle class. For example, in the UK, the largest middle class, per community, are the Indians, who, by and large, control small businesses in the UK. Conversely, the lowest are the West Indies, who own almost no small businesses in the UK with no discernible representation in the middle class. And the same applies to these regions.

Samalfal spoke to it well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oodweyne,

 

You've written a lot but you did not say much. Instead of writing gibberish, why not give explicit example from the report? I can already tell by your answers that you do not have any background in methodology or statistics. The fact that you fixate on sample size instead of the statistical power, tells me of your methodological ignorance. Only someone with who lacks research knowledge will think that a bigger sample size will increase the power!

 

Anyways, since you're so fixated on the sample size: here they are ( I bet you didn't read the report).

 

.

 

more than 4 thousand household samples, and more than 21,000 individual sample size seems more than enough for me. That sample size is used to project to a population/household size which covers more than 80% of most regions.

 

The differences in sample sizes can easily be adjusted with a simple variance analysis. Your knowledge in statistics really dissapointed me oodweyne

 

Lastly, the report was prepared by Utz Pape, who holds a Bsc, Msc, and Phd in statistics. But I guess the words of Oodweyne should be heavier :)

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have read the report fully , and while as usual SOMALIS never take serious statistics that debunk their "SHEEKO GURI",and delusion, this is one of the best report that came out of SOMALIA since the start of civil war.

 

Somalis, completely deluded by the powerful fairy tales at home, will never accept such reports, MANA anaga, it is as true and close to reality, the only thing that came and hit me, was the level of poverty, how destitute our people are, while at the same time, very few at top, are getting rich at the expense of the millions, signing away ports, and completely out of touch. and bizarrely some here are arguing your village is poorer etc, while all are sitting in deep sh!t.

 

Population

2eyj4ht.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have read the report fully , and while as usual SOMALIS never take serious statistics that debunk their "SHEEKO GURI",and delusion, this is one of the best report that came out of SOMALIA since the start of civil war.

 

Somalis, completely deluded by the powerful fairy tales at home, will never accept such reports, MANA anaga, it is as true and close to reality, the only thing hit me, was the level of poverty, how destitute our people are, while at the same time, very few at top, are getting rich at the expense of the millions, signing away ports, and completely out of touch. and bizarrely some here are arguing your village is poorer, mine is richer, etc, while all are sitting in deep sh!t.

 

Population

2eyj4ht.jpg

 

Overall , Rural is shrinking, (by many factors, draught, famine, lack of rain, war)urbanisation is increasing, Poverty is increasing, inequality, is increasing, Majority of people have no access to basic necessities, food, health, education.

 

Unethical business and behaviour is increasing, it is dog eat dog world, many regions print money that has serious and dangerous consequences specially for the poor, with no understand or care the consequences, business bring out of date or fake medications, with zero regulations, and so on.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

while all are sitting in deep sh!t...

 

 

Which is exactly why I didn't comment on this. Harag sakaaro yacni.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

while the percentage of rural decreasing, has silver lining,(Majority of SOMALI conflict, still now, and in the past get oxygen from rural, it is easier to get few uneducated Geeljire with AK47s that has no understanding of what they fighting for,) it has introduced another major problem, the increase of MAXJAR, abattoirs, that send meat overseas, which does but LAB and DHADIG, (in the past DHAGIG were all available to local only) the export of XOOLA debada,, smaller rural, had effect on food security, and access to protein, many will not believe but a kilo of meat is not more expensive in SOMALIA than many countries.

 

New techniques, cultural change, large scale farming, fishing must be introduced. I was watching youtube the other day, on the famine/draught, there was older guy in Burco, he was saying, this famine is disaster , it forced us to eat fish, for first time :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maakhiri said,

 

" Overall , Rural is shrinking, (by many factors, draught, famine, lack of rain, war)urbanisation is increasing, Poverty is increasing, inequality, is increasing,.

 

That is the basic fact.

 

Illyria,

 

The Puntland budget you presented did not add up to the final tally.

 

world bank donation estimate : 1,612,588 x 12 = 19,350,696

United Nation yearly aid: 5,588,000

7 district monthly revenue 576,496 x 12 = 6,935,952

 

Total yearly budget estimate of Puntland = 31, 893, 648

 

This budget is similar to the one presented by Puntland last year .

 

so, you must bring the real break down to reach the so called 160 million. We might not be correct always, but at least we follow what is going on in Somali government's finances, and for me that 160 million is huge surprise.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Galbeedi,

I thought you were a reading man; show malaha ninkaagani lafaha hoose ayaad geeljire ka ahayd; ya badaawi;—) sorry, could not resist taking a soft dig at your expense. Besides, I am in a charitable mood today, and shall indulge you.

 

Here is the relevant info. See the last worksheet titled “sheet9”, and you will notice a budget line item 13103, row 58 column D.

Budget breakdown, 2017.

 

Again, our focus must be upon creating skilled work force (notice I did not say educated), which in turn would accelerate the ability & tools to lowering overall poverty rate, if unable to eradicate it altogether, availing clean water to the locals, and creating sustainable native economic development projects incl. modernising livestock & husbandry industries, and fishery and marine resources..

Best of luck.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Illyria,

 

Saaxiib we are all geeljire, and usually those who hail from central Somalia are more Geeljire than those us from the west.

 

In your earlier post ,you did not present an actual chart but you just trowed some numbers, and i missed some. . Even the new chart that shows the real break is misleading. Since most, if not, 50% of the budget is coming from donors, they usually demand some kind of financial management schemes in order to dole out the money. THe logical move from the leaders is to create a false narrative misleading charts in order to qualify for the aid, and Somalis or regional minions are clever to mislead and present false numbers in order to mislead the donors who does not care about the end result of the budget.

 

Saaxiib,

 

All this numbers are for tribal consumption and misleading for the donors. The Puntland budget at the calendar year of 2014-2015 was 29 million dollars, and the estimate could probably have been higher. Now, how can a budget grow from 30 million to 160 million within two years?? that is impossible, especially for a year were the north east suffered a devastating drought for livestock and rural economy.

 

In fact if you remove the 20 million or so foreign aid from the budget , Puntland will be luck to generate another 30 million. in your charts it showed that the estimated budget of 2016 was around 70 million. How can a budget grow 140% in one single year where a severe drought affected the economy?. Remove the aid and that estimate will not reach even 30m. In the year of 2015-2016, they estimated a 60 million , and if you remove the foreign aid ,they settled around 35-40 million. So , you can not go from low thirties of 2016, to 160 million just after one year.In 2016, Puntland soldiers took over the parliament for the luck of salary of almost few months.

 

Look, you might be an educated fellow, but i will advice you not to follow these false charts of the enclaves which is totally intended to mislead and cheat both the people and donors. Yes, there is livestock export, taxes on telecom and the Boosaaso port, which is the main engine of the economy produces some internal revanue, but the bureaucracy does not have the capacity for sound tax collection or safeguard the tax payer money. I used to follow Somaliland budget estimates which ministers over estimate. In 2014, he estimated around 250 million, but at the end of the year it barely reached 126 million. As I said in these pages, the Punties are following the foot steps of Somaliland to lie and deceive.

 

Finally , do not be fooled by these numbers, no budget could grow from 70m-to 160m without any new found natural resources or miracles, and financial miracles that bring unforeseen money do not happen in Somali run provinces. The company I work generates over 20 million and all that sales and other productions are done in one single building with cubicles. Somalis have become masters when it comes to misappropriation and misleading, even the diaspora communities become clever of how to account for the grants, and prepare illusive activities that covers tgheir tracks.

 

I know it's disappointing for some Somali person to be told that your enclave is and it;s leaders are nothing more than a fraud that misleads it's people with false pride that does not improve the lives of average citizen. Of course their are military economy, NGO; jails that look hotels and others, but when was the last time anyone built a hospital?

 

Brother, try and help bring peace order and good governance to the Somali nation state which in turn could help all of us reach our potentials. Forgery about the false enclave that and it's false charts.

 

If you really want to know what goes in these places, let us do real research and find out what is their actual revenues, . You will be surprised.

 

Furthermore, in you combine the total population of Togdheer, Sool, Sanaag and Nugaal, and compare those in Shabeelaha hoose , you will be surprised.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Guys, don't read those budget numbers, they are almost fake.

 

Else, how in the world , can you explain an increase of 160% in a year, without finding a new source of revenue? either your old budget calculations were wrong , or you are wrong now. These corrupted leaders have fanthom army, fanthom public servants, that are in the books, but does not exist(Most for misappropriation), and inflate budget.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this