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Saalax

World Bank Poverty report on Somalia: Somaliland region(NW) poorer than Puntland

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Hello Folks,

 

The lack of discerning (and discriminating) eye to read report of this kind actually is a sign of a poverty of education for those like our famous "Ina-Gumeed" of SOL, namely, Mr Saalax, who only read it at the surface level of this kind of report, and then thought to himself, bingo, I have a bad news to report about Somaliland and its "level of social poverty". Let me take it quickly to SOL.

 

In other words, this is a self-certified survey, which means (and you would have known this gem of information, if you have read the how the sample was chosen, and what methodology was used) that the folks were told to report their own perception of poverty, inequality, consumption level, employment condition. And then it was aggregated, statistically, on the basis of that "self-reporting".

 

Secondly, the folks who actually conducted these interviews are not the World bank (per se), but a local Somali NGOs, whereby, the questions were given to them, and where told to go out and ask these questions, aggregate the answers, and then (and only then) send the answers to the World bank's regional coordinator.

 

Hence, there is no "control mechanism" to account for "inherent bias", "false reporting", or even "padded answers", given by the sub-hired Local NGOs (or the Somali's sub-contracted parties) who were the ones who were collecting these "self-reporting" answers. And they were the ones putting these questions to the local Somali households, in the first place.

 

Consequently, even the chief author of this report (Dr Utz Pape) could not intellectually certified these self-answered questions (in-terms of their veracity, and in-terms of their "holistic capture" of the socio-economical reality that may pertained to the breadth and the length of the Somali peninsula).

 

And the reason for that, is that, given, that, these self-reporting answers are individually collected, and are based on a "sample" of people chosen by the sub-contracted local Somali NGOs that are doing the "alleged" field work for this kind of a report.

 

And this means, this sort of report may come with a World bank caption (or at least with a World Bank "head-line" appellation). But at heart of it, it's a products of Somali's local NGOs, doing this survey collection, or are earning their daily bread on the basis of "feeding" the World bank's statistical and the rest of the World bank's econometric folks with whatever the local Somali NGOs seems to decide to be the "appropriate answers".

 

Hence, those who may be interesting to get to the bottom of this report, please, read the report properly (it's only 134 pages). And it will be easy, if you have some back-ground statistical grounding (either from western's high-school level, or from first year's university math course, where statistics and probability, is one of the requirement of that sort of first year's university math course).

 

And moreover, if you could start at the back of the report, where they discuss the methodology of the survey, the creation of the sample (i.e., how each sample differ from the other, in-terms of number of household in which each regional sample was made off), you will be a lot clearer in understanding this sort of survey, in-terms of how it was put together.

 

And specifically, you will be lot clearer in understanding as to how each question was assigned to a particular "statistical weight", in-order to determine what each question can have, in cumulative sense. And most importantly, the "comparative differences" in which each "surveyed region" could have with others, in-terms of consumption level, which determines the level of alleged poverty in which each region could be assigned to be having it.

 

And if you were to do that (i.e., read the report from back to front) you will know how the sample were created, who did the gathering of the answers, and how large each "sample" were.

 

And on this last point, you will see from this report, that, the North East region had the "smallest sample" (in-terms of household that was surveyed) at least in comparison to the North-West region (i.e., Somaliland) and with Mogadishu. And that is the case when it comes to number of folks who were interviewed for these "surveys".

 

All in all, this is not a report that is more intellectually serious document than a mere "snap-shot-poll" of the kind most surveys are based on, at least in the western's countries. And it could be said, this one is even less reliable than those in the west, since the data in which these self-reporting surveys was build around it are even less "truthful" than the sort of "hard data" in which most western-based surveys are actually build on.

 

And therefore, as a consequences of it, one should take it with a "large dollop of salt" with this report, particularly before one takes to the bank, in-terms of believing whatever its glaringly "biased assertions" says about anything of important, or before one should proceed to glean anything from it.

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Question is who is keeping Somaliland poor? the fat cat

politicians that steal millions are to blame.

 

 

A UN report from 2002 also showed that IDPs in Bosaso

had a higher standard of living than urban residents of

Hargeisa.

 

In comparison to Hargeisa, Bosasso residents enjoy a higher standard of living if we compare average daily incomes. While urban residents of Hargeisa earn, on average, about $1 a day, Bosasso residents earn over $4. Naturally, with respect to Bosasso, IDPs earnings are far lower. Most IDP households in Bosasso earn a daily wage of a little over a $1, which is more than 50percent, more than most returnee/IDP families living in and around Hargeisa.

 

 

https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/internally-displaced-persons-combined-report-somalia

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^^^ I know reading things in their "context" was never your strong suit. But, I am actually saying to you, that, all of these reports are basically "speculative assertions" that are not based on "hard data". And therefore, they are no more intellectually serious than a mere "hunches" or on a "self-serving biased assertions".

 

In other words, the notion that says that Puntland is having a less "social poverty" than Somaliland is one of those bogus "urban legend" that could only be propagated by those who wish to see an ill fortune for Somaliland.

 

And finally to say that Hargeisa has a larger level of "social poverty" (or even its having a"pronounced inequality") than that of which exists in Garowe or even in Bosaso, is one of those silly arguments that only a "blind and dumb political stooge", who knows nothing about Somaliland (by and large) could ever believe it, regardless of how much of a "flimsy and speculative reports" that are based on ill-constructed data, he in turn may consult with it. So that is that.

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Oodweyne you are in denial. Behind the fancy villas in Hargeisa

lies a large percent of poverty with over 90% unemployment rate.

Wealth is only concentrated with the few in Somaliland.

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Saalax,

 

Saaxiib, In fact, if there is any one who is in "denial" around here, least of all, his hatred has indeed "blinded" him to the reality that exist in Somaliland, it's the likes of you, who spend his every waking hour searching the nooks and the crannies of the nether-world. In particularly, in search of any allegedly passing bad news about Somaliland.

 

Hence, it really is bad form bordering on absurdity on your part to be accusing anyone of being in "denial", when in fact, if there is anyone whose very existence as a human-being ought to be considered as an example of a tragic life, lived in "denial" of the existence facts and of a political reality that he found it difficult to accept, then, one can say, that, person really would have been you. So, that is that,

 

As for the level of poverty in Somaliland in general and in Hargeisa in particular, no one in their right mind is actually disputing that. But the fact that is in dispute is that of "level" and the "severity" of it. And in-terms of level of inequality (or the Gini coefficient).

 

And on that score, the last speculative report that was done in Somaliland was back in 2013/2014, which in turn was report that was no more credible in-terms of the "hard data" it's based on than the one you are parading in here. But still all the same, it said this and I quote:

 

".... More than 1 in 3 people in rural Somaliland and more than 1 in 4 people in urban Somaliland are living in poverty. The amount of money required for a household to meet their basic needs is estimated at 207,300 Somaliland Shillings per adult per month in urban Somaliland and 180,900 Somaliland Shillings per adult per month in rural Somaliland. Households living on less than this are counted as poor, which results in a poverty headcount of 37.0% in rural Somaliland and 29.7% in urban Somaliland...."

 

As for the unemployment, that same report of 2013/14 done by the same World bank in collaboration with the Somaliland's ministry of planning, which again is based on a similarly the same speculative self-sorting and self-reporting "survey" as the one you have shared with us in here, says this and I quote:

 

".... Only 26 percent of people between 15 to 55 olds in rural and 32.7 percent of 15 to 55 year olds in urban Somaliland are in waged-earned employment or in self-employment..."

 

So, in that sense, it's unlikely that the report of 2013/2014 and the one of 2016 (in which you have shared with us) could be so wildly inconsistent with each other, and still be right to claim to be telling us the "true picture" of the level of poverty in Somaliland. Given that the two surveys will indicates to any casual reader how they are out of kilter in-terms of their underlying data they are putting forward.

 

Hence, while you are reading your own latest report from the world bank, here is the report of 2013/2014 on Somaliland by the same World Bank's outfit, which in turn seems to have made a "racket" of producing yet another speculative survey and its accompanying report, particularly on the level of "economical deprivation", that allegedly exist in Somaliland. And to boot, it seems each passing report (or survey) is genuinely out wack with the previous one, in-terms of the underlying picture they are purporting to show.

 

************

Here is the report I am referring to in this discussion:

 

New World Bank GDP and Poverty Estimates for Somaliland - http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2014/01/29/new-world-bank-gdp-and-poverty-estimates-for-somaliland

 

http://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/2818/download/39898

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Puntland has a strong religious business community. Wadaada have a lot of money and their relatives are well fed in general. It is also easy to start business in Puntland compared to Somaliland. That is why Puntland has the largest small business start-ups in all of Somalia. Everyone wants to be a businessman there and the government doesn't stop it. In Somaliland, it takes months to open a simple shop because it is very well controlled by the government and it is not easy to get business licence.

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said:

Puntland has a strong religious business community. Wadaada have a lot of money and their relatives are well fed in general. It is also easy to start business in Puntland compared to Somaliland. That is why Puntland has the largest small business start-ups in all of Somalia. Everyone wants to be a businessman there and the government doesn't stop it. In Somaliland, it takes months to open a simple shop because it is very well controlled by the government and it is not easy to get business licence.

 

 

I agree there is more of a wealth distribution in Puntland were's

in Somaliland wealth is confined to few cats. This is something

we all knew.

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Originally posted by Holac
,

 

Puntland has a strong religious business community. Wadaada have a lot of money and their relatives are well fed in general. It is also easy to start business in Puntland compared to Somaliland. That is why Puntland has the largest small business start-ups in all of Somalia. Everyone wants to be a businessman there and the government doesn’t stop it. In Somaliland, it takes months to open a simple shop because it is very well controlled by the government and it is not easy to get business licence.

 

Holac,

 

Again, saaxiib, you are showing your inherent inability to see the Forrest for the Tress. In other words, first of all, it's tall fiction that says Puntland is economically more prosperous than Somaliland, since, the budget alone (which is almost 300 millions in Somaliland in comparison to 50 millions or so that is Puntland) will indicate the first evidence of your gibberish argument.

 

Secondly, the notion that says Puntland has more of a "business-friendly environment" in comparison to that of Somaliland is again, a sheer silly argument, since, if your compare the number of Somaliland businesses (at least in numbers) to that of Puntland, you can says, that, Somalialnd's businesses actually dwarf whatever number of businesses that are in existence in Puntland.

 

And thirdly, the suggestion that says, that, Somalilanders are less Business-savvy or are less likely to take risk in this direction in comparison to that of Puntland, is again, stuff you basically pulled out of it from your back-side, since, you haven't given us any evidence (even anecdotal ones) to which to pack it up your seat-of-your-pants assertions.

 

And finally, the notion that hold that Puntland, it's much easier to get a "business licence" than in Somaliland, is once again, your kind of "clannish urban legend" to which, perhaps, you warm yourself with it in most night, since, you haven't presented no evidence to even give a scintilla of "believability" to your assertion. And, in fact, in Hargeisa, to get a licence to operate a business takes maximum one day (at least last time I check). Although, the kind of business it is, will have an impact on it.

 

Hence, unless you have a "comparative indices" that will show us, where you are getting this tall tales of yours, in which you are detaining us now with it, then we can simply take it as your version of "urban legend" in which to boot, you while away your time with it, while believing every word of it. Which is something you are entitle to, but it's not the stuff you should "share" others with.

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said:

Good documents, thanks Saalah.

 

 

Did you see the big difference between Sool and Nugal regions

in terms of wealth even though they are neighbors.

 

 

World bank

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This is good data probably new to those unfamiliar or have not travelled through Somali regions or administrations over the year, but in reality this has been the case for many years. for example, there is a larger middle class concentration in NorthEast than Northwest and the rest of the country whereas in NorthWest, as Salax pointed out, wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few.

 

More troubling however are: access to improved source of water, and education in the regions.

"In line with other relevant non-monetary indicators, such as education and employment, households living in North East show a relatively low degree of inequality in access to an improved source of water between urban and rural areas. Indeed, more than seven in ten people living in urban households of North East have access to an improved source of water, against about 5 in ten in rural areas; a stark contrast to the North West region, where only 52 percent of urban dwellers and 9 percent of people living in rural households report access to an improved source of water (Figure 2.23). "

 

This means only 50% of nomads in NE have access to water whereas only 9% in NW have access to water. this has to be a national priority after which education comes.

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And FYI.

All Somali states use projected budgets, and not income-based budgetary methods. Puntland’s 2017 budget was $160 million whereas Somaliland’s was $362 million (in reality, these numbers do not represent the actual picture). Again, both are projected where half of the expected income comes from external sources incl. world bank and other foreign sources, and neither is based upon actual intake in the form of taxes, revenues from manufacturing, export / import tariffs to balance trade deficit, or other forms of local revenues. In fact, if you study closely their local ttax revenues, you will notice, it is minute in comparison.

 

And almost 75% of the budget (this has been changing over the years) goes towards salary with not earmarked for basic public services including health and education. Forget about infrastructure or economic development projects neither of which they can afford nor even contemplate.

 

The same applies to the federal government where 2-thirds of its annual budget comes from external sources.

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Lately there is a lot of propaganda in SOL. It used to be Suldaanka and Landers to throw " Way Duushay iyo Miisaaniyada oo cirka martay", but now the Puntlanders are out doing Suldaanka.

 

It said , statistics do not lie, but liars use statistics. I have never seen anywhere about Puntland budget reaching %160 million. In 2016, it was 35 million, so you can not grow fifth fold in one year. Of course SOmaliland budget is exaggerated and the estimate is always much lower than the actual budget. Also, since the Siilaanyo tribe took the power, there were never one single debate about budget items. The system ceased to exist as institution and the budget is divided among the Siilaanyo household and the whole of Somaliland. Did you ever heard one single debate about the budget? None. . The palace budget is more than 10 ministries.

 

Of course Somaliland has huge rural population, from Awdal to Sanaag which could triple in size than Puntland, hence the poverty level could be higher, but to o say that Puntland has more middle class than Somaliland is a red herring. The public servants and government employees in Hargeisa alone can surpass all government workers in Whole of Puntland. In Somaliland , there are more than ten universities with tens of thousands of students who could afford to attend. Remembers, because of higher tuition fees of $500 dollars per semester only the middle class and the upper class could attend., that means thousands of families are spending huge money just for an education.

 

Compare that to Puntland which has probably two mediocre universities. Today Hargeisa is like how Muqdishu was in the late eighties. Millions are looted from both public, private and the NGO's. THere is inflation and the poor is suffering, but there is huge middle and upper class in Hargeisa today than anywhere else in the Somali speaking world. Burco city has relocated to Hargeisa, so does Gabiley and Some from Awdal. There are 120 NGO's operating in Hargeisa alone and they are spending millions. Hotels are full.

 

One advantage Puntland has is the cost of living is much lower than Hargeisa or Borama. Boosaaso has been traditionally a hard working and business people , but one single city can not outperform Somaliland. Another important issue is other than Garoowe, Puntland has the lowest participation or diaspora returnees who settles there. Gaalkacayo is no go zone, and Boosaaso is unpredictable. I have friends who hail from Boosaaso, and both their families settled in HArgeisa and Borama, in fact an old friend of mine who travels to Hargeisa to almost every year told me his wife demanded to relocate from Boosaaso to Hargeisa due to insecurity. Certainly there is peace in. Boosaaso, but from time to time there is targeted killings and murders that is more common than Garoowe. So Puntland has a long way to reach full stability.

 

On the rural issue, Puntland has the lowest number of villages and rural communities. Between Garoowe and Gaalkacayo, which is almost 250km , there is one single town called Burtinle. If you travel the highway from Garoowe to Boosaaso which is 450 km , the only major town is Qardo.That is 700km of empty land. If you leave Borama and Travel to Lowyacado , you would travel almost 10 villages and towns.

 

To be honest I did not read the report, but we all know that per capita Somaliland has more stable middle class than both Puntland and even Mogadishu.

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