Che -Guevara

Secessionists declare unilateral "ceasefire"

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Secessionists want to talk now after calling reer Sool terrorists and insulting their Garaads. This is a mere ploy to regroup.

Reer Sool won't forget the merciless bombarding of LA and  deaths. Nothing short of vacating secessionist forces from Sool would do.

 

Kudos to the Garaads and those men humbled the so-called SL army.

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This also came after their childish tantrum was ignored by International Community aka Beesha Lixaad and when Ismail Omar Gheele's silly claim of mediatating between reer Sool and secessionist administration was shut down by the Garaads.

 

 

 

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galbeedi   

Unilateral cease fire from Somaliland is a good move. The next step should be withdrawal of troops from the city and surrounding area. 

These kind of wars create hatred and  unforeseen consequences. there are unscrupulous Youtubers who make money on the misery. Some have even targeted Borama, a city that welcomed everyone for thirty years with zero incident, yet they told their kin  to move to Jigjiga. Don't they realize Jigjiga has the same residents as Borama or diverse .

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50 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

Unilateral cease fire from Somaliland is a good move. The next step should be withdrawal of troops from the city and surrounding area. 

These kind of wars create hatred and  unforeseen consequences. there are unscrupulous Youtubers who make money on the misery. Some have even targeted Borama, a city that welcomed everyone for thirty years with zero incident, yet they told their kin  to move to Jigjiga. Don't they realize Jigjiga has the same residents as Borama or diverse .

They are buying time.

 

Besides, there are fundamental  differences that can't be bridged.

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galbeedi   

Of course they are buying time, but those among SSC must create some kind of Maamul. So far they haven't even formed a provisional Maamul to deal with  the current issue. They have done well in terms of support among Somalis and international community. They need command and control of their militia and a civilian leadership.

Unconfirmed reports say Somaliland negotiated with Puntland for the cease fire. 

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1 minute ago, galbeedi said:

Of course they are buying time, but those among SSC must create some kind of Maamul. So far they haven't even formed a provisional Maamul to deal with  the current issue. They have done well in terms of support among Somalis and international community. They need command and control of their militia and a civilian leadership.

Unconfirmed reports say Somaliland negotiated with Puntland for the cease fire. 

They were in the process of doing that before Sland militia start shelling the city.

Pland has no hand in it. In fact, they have little sway over the Garaads.More importantly, the general public in Puntland are decidedly in reer SSC's corner.

Biixi simply overestimated his strength and foolishly thought others will jump in to de-escalate the situation.

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galbeedi   

Che,

what will be the move of the SSC now after this ceasefire?

Do they have to continue their convention and set up the Maamul or continue the war?

I think accepting the ceasefire and continuing the convention will serve them well. Somaliland couldn't disrupt their meetings anymore. I think they earned the right to decide.

 

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In terms of political arrangement, they want to come under Mogadishu nominally for the time being, something akin to Gedo but without headache of consistently being bothered by a neighbor and by Mogadishu.  In terms of being Federal State, that they will be a hard issue to settle. They don't rightfully trust Garowe, and W-gale is fully incorporated into Puntland  which works out for W-Gale as they live in Bari and Eastern Sanaag. And there is the issue of balancing D vs H number of states.

Having said that Muse, a student of the Kacaan military, won't give up easily.

Here's your native son of Awdal talking about the history of current situation and Muse general temperament.

 

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Duufaan   

The ceasefire only works if Somaliland army is leaving for next coming days. They are close enough to Lasanod to continue shell the city. The  SSC leaders would say, We want to accept the ceasefire but first leave our region as they were saying before. This war is not  gone end soon. I don’t think Muse is ready to leave . SSC  is working to reconstitute their forces and put in a strategic military plan to hit enemy logistics. Anything else is secondary. No one will never trust Somaliland games.

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