Che -Guevara

Next Phase of Ethiopia's Civil War: Tigray vs Amhara

Recommended Posts

Arafaat,

Anything is possible, but I honestly believe Somalis will not ever get a fair share within Ethiopia. I do appreciate the risks involving all scenarios, and the fact Somalis might still be screwed.

On another note, Abiy and his Amhara have launched an all fronts attack. They are throwing everything at Tigray.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Arafaat   
4 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

Arafaat,

Anything is possible, but I honestly believe Somalis will not ever get a fair share within Ethiopia. I do appreciate the risks involving all scenarios, and the fact Somalis might still be screwed.

On another note, Abiy and his Amhara have launched an all fronts attack. They are throwing everything at Tigray.

 

 

 

Even if the federal government wins this battle against the Tigray forces, the political will of those forces vying for self-determination and decentralization at local level will remain, maybe not waging wars and conquering lands as the Tigray did. And nor sure if the Oromo opposition are capable to take such a political role, but eventually Abiy will have to negotiate a settlement m to keep Ethiopia together. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
galbeedi   

The TPLF had rejected the Turkish deal to negotiate ans accept next five years of Abiy Ahmed rule. In this scenario history will not repeat again. The Wayane had defeated Mengistu in 1991 after ridding the Eritrean Peoples Liberation  Front caravan which was the most formidable independent rebel movement in Africa.

With all their weapons, they could not hold the Affar territory, and soon they will vacate the Amhara land due to overwhelming federal force. Of all people, the TPLF should know better than a 100 million poor Ethiopia could easily recruit millions by just paying small living salary and food. Even if the ration of the casualty is 10 to one, Tigray loses. When you see the twitter explode the Famine hashtag I knew the TPLF is in trouble. Sanctions from the US will not save them. 

Having said that, Abiy will eventually negotiate , but first he want to decimate the TPLF fighting forces and even bomb Makele. Yet Somalis from Hargeisa to Jigjiga have hopes of their overlords coming back. Folks, that ain't gonna happen/

Dhag Dheer dhimatoo dhulkii waa nabad.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Galbeedi,

The problem with Ethiopia is one despot changes another from Menelik to Zenawi. Whether TPLF is defeated or not, PP has become the new EPRDF. It is actually more centralized than EPRDF. The best outcome is a negotiated settlement that is truly democratic, one that ensures the linguistic, cultural, economic, and political rights of all nations. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.