Big shake up in Ethiopia. General Samora has been asked to return.

[Old_Observer]

Major problems in Ethiopia

1. Up to 30 million Ethiopians need food aid 16 million that was identified before coronavirus and about 8 million added recently. These are just the official numbers that have been given to UN, Donors, ..etc by the government.

2. Egypt has made major diplomatic coup to stop or bring to crowl the GERD. Both USA and UK have openly endorsed Egypt's points of negotiations. Egypt is also preparing all its options including those military. Since Abiy came to power all the top brass in Ethiopia is not happy. The Oromos are not happy since Abiy has taken away a lot and given some to Amxara to check the Oromo. Oromo are also not happy since their kilil is not. And the Tigray are not happy generally since their kilil is not happy politically.
Perfect timing for Egypt/Eritrea to pressure Abiy to weaken the army even further.

3. The Oromo have not accepted all the consitutional changes Abiy tried to bring through backdoor. That is why it is said Ms. Keria resigned. Abiy wanted to put a Somali, but Abiy had difficulty because the dedputy speaker of senate was already a Somali. So they ended up kicking the one Somali and giving his place to a Southerner. The Oromo are saying that there is no constitutional method to postpone election and also appoint PM.

4. Some sites are already reporting that Gen. Samora has been brought back. I just observed an interview by an Amxara General stating that Ethiopia should reorganize itself for GERD.
Another General was explaining from history of more than 100 years ago how Ethiopians defeated Egypt and the Egyptian govt was then fell...etc. Somebody should tell him that times have changed. We are in 21st century.



Note. Farmaajo should do the following:
1. Select committee and negotiate about water with Ethiopia. Permanent committee not attached to government. One from each government including Ziad Barre days. As well as lawyers and experienced international agreements and negotiation folks.
2. Pay attention. Sudan and Ethiopia can go to war very easily. Qatar or Turkish will not be able to help make peace. Israel, Egypt, US are all trying to control Sudan.
3. Do not put Somalia in Abiy basket completely. May look strong now, but is not. Secondly Abiy can throw Somalia under the bus for any reason. Stay in touch with Djibouti, Kenya even secretly.
4. Do not agree with Ethiopia for all ports. Negotiate and agree only one port at a time. Start with Kismayo or Bassasso or somewhere in between.