Suldaanka

The mother of 'Federal Government" as it is known, wants to disown her child

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Apophis   
40 minutes ago, Haatu said:

When speaking about politics, no one ever intends the mindless masses who just do what they're told. What we're discussing are the positions and beliefs of the elite who run the show. And call me cynical, but I believe the NE elite to be closet seccionists. Their idea of unity is sharing a passport and that's it. They are more contemptible in my eyes than the rabid snm. 

What is wrong with just sharing a passport or a loose confederation? What is wrong with being like the UAE?

A UEA type union is much more preferably than a system where a wannabe dictator like Farmajo can rise to misrule and kill all opposed to him.

decentralisation should always be welcomed.

 

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Oodweyne   
5 hours ago, Suldaanka said:

With failing economy, shrinking influence and most importantly deteriorating security, Pirateland is watching & waiting for the perfect storm forming. It is inevitable that Pirateland will either do something silly i.e. try to follow Somaliland. Or succumb to the forces from Mogadishu. They are between a rock and a hardplace

Suldaanka,

That is bull's eye analysis really. And it essentially encapsulates everything and in all sense of the situation in-terms of the dire political and the economical situation in which Pirate-land is facing currently.

Hence, as you said it, the ever failing attempt to put up a brave face by the Pirates we have in here of SOL. Especially the likes of Che, and by my old friend, Mr Sophist (and I wonder how he is doing out there in ILO's offices in Nairobi nowadays?) who changed his old name into this new one call Tillamook. Given that he is still the same old sniffling low-born coward who did indeed a runner away from a "historical bet" he took against me in right here of SOL back in 2004/2005. 

And that "political bet" was about which direction of the political kind in which the destiny of his region call Sool will go down on eventually.

And, of course, now he is back and he is in here with us waffling endlessly about what sort of a "political fates" awaits Pirate-land, as if we that minded to actually take any notice of any kind, particularly of any argument from a mere coward who was always on the run. And he therefore now expect from us to entertain his argument.

5 hours ago, Haatu said:

And call me cynical, but I believe the NE elite to be closet seccionists. Their idea of unity is sharing a passport and that's it. They are more contemptible in my eyes than the rabid snm. 

Haatu,

Saaxiib, I will pass it over in hurry just so that I will not notice that such needling words, like "rabid", is what you have described us in Somaliland. For I shall afford you benefit of the doubt, at least this time around. Or perhaps, I shall "assigned" that to be the sole product from a slip of the tongue. And therefore it was not intended by you to be "malicious" as it first reads it from the screen (as it were).

But I must say what we as the SNM's folks, or Somaliland in general, are known for is not an "act of cowardice" from our objective, be it political or be it historical. Or at least we don't try to "hide" that in plain sight. 

The other night you call this "is-faanis" on my part, as if I was "flattering" my people. And I took exception to that. Which was when I said to you, rather heatedly, that we in Somaliland, actually, have "no-two-face-approach-to-things", particularly if they matter to us. And we, moreover, call things as we see them, regardless of how that may be unpleasant to some folks.

Hence in here let me say that what the political elites of Pirate-land currently lack, and they have lacked ever since 1991, and again they lacked as far back as in 1998 which was when they have created their current state, was the "courage" to be true to their "innate political interests", come what may. As much we in Somaliland were always and forever be so "unbendingly truthful" to our "political agenda". And that was the case with us from the first get-go of 1991. And it's still the case with us in Somaliland even now in 2020, come hell or high-water. 

That is difference.

  • Haha - That was funny. You made me laugh! 1

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Haatu   
20 hours ago, Apophis said:

What is wrong with just sharing a passport or a loose confederation? What is wrong with being like the UAE?

A UEA type union is much more preferably than a system where a wannabe dictator like Farmajo can rise to misrule and kill all opposed to him.

decentralisation should always be welcomed.

 

A confederation in the Somali context is one step away from balkanization. No sane person who has any interest in Somali unity would advocate for it.

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Haatu   
20 hours ago, Oodweyne said:

Haatu,

Saaxiib, I will pass it over in hurry just so that I will not notice that such needling words, like "rabid", is what you have described us in Somaliland. For I shall afford you benefit of the doubt, at least this time around. Or perhaps, I shall "assigned" that to be the sole product from a slip of the tongue. And therefore it was not intended by you to be "malicious" as it first reads it from the screen (as it were).

But I must say what we as the SNM's folks, or Somaliland in general, are known for is not an "act of cowardice" from our objective, be it political or be it historical. Or at least we don't try to "hide" that in plain sight. 

The other night you call this "is-faanis" on my part, as if I was "flattering" my people. And I took exception to that. Which was when I said to you, rather heatedly, that we in Somaliland, actually, have "no-two-face-approach-to-things", particularly if they matter to us. And we, moreover, call things as we see them, regardless of how that may be unpleasant to some folks.

Hence in here let me say that what the political elites of Pirate-land currently lack, and they have lacked ever since 1991, and again they lacked as far back as in 1998 which was when they have created their current state, was the "courage" to be true to their "innate political interests", come what may. As much we in Somaliland were always and forever be so "unbendingly truthful" to our "political agenda". And that was the case with us from the first get-go of 1991. And it's still the case with us in Somaliland even now in 2020, come hell or high-water. 

That is difference.

There is nothing malicious intended. I wish the people of Somaliland nothing but good and harbour no ill-will towards them. However, I must repeat to you what I said to Che. When discussing politics, I intend not the mindless masses who simply do as they're told, but rather the elite that control them. I don't believe in fanciful notions such as 'the people's will' or 'sovereignty for the people'. The 'will of the public' can be and is engineered by the elite the world over. Having lived through Brexit Britain I am sure you are well aware of that. In Somaliland's context, the elite means the SNM and their remnants, and my dislike for the SNM and their politics should come as no surprise to you. I fully believe that after the jidbo of the 1960s died down, the SNM elite came to a realisation that the qabyaalad of the South was such that they would forever be denied the top job. They then realised how naive they had been to surrender their 'sovereignty' to the South condition-free. The outcome of such a realisation was that from the get-go, the struggle of the SNM was all about secession so they could at last sit on the top seat. MSB's atrocities just added fuel to the fire but the initial objective was there all along.

I can't hate them for that, for after all nin rag ah weligii wuxuu ku taamaa siduu wax u maamuli lahaa. But as a believer of Soomaaliweyn, secession in any guise is inimical to my worldview, hence why I find it contemptible. But at least I respect the SNM for having the courage to make apparent what they truly desire. However, I reserve my real contempt for those who lack the courage to make their true intentions apparent and instead spend every waking breath sabotaging the re-emergence of a strong Somali state. Hadday warkooda caddayn lahaayeen, mar horaa laga tashan lahaa and the rest of the South would have moved forward. But this useless dastuur and federalism have been the prime weapons with which the oligarchs of NE have used to sabotage the Central Government. I am glad we finally have an administration in Xamar that is hellbent on addressing the root cause of the constitutional crisis in the country and may Allah be with them.

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Apophis   
6 hours ago, Haatu said:

A confederation in the Somali context is one step away from balkanization. No sane person who has any interest in Somali unity would advocate for it.

Somalia is in a real sense balkanised today thanks to “Somali unity” advocates.

Maybe it is time for everyone to go their own way. I for one would like to live in a country where unrepentant kacanist like Galbedi and Farmajo can come to power and implant their nazi like ideology.

Let them do that in their own villages.

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A piece of advice to those who want Somalia unity coast to coast, yet are dead set to hate Puntland for bringing Federalism.

In your haste to curse and cuss Puntland you forget a small actually very big example of history that is given free of charge from neighbor Ethiopia.

Eritreans fought 30 years to separate from Ethiopia.

It looked so hopeless they agreed for Confederation.

Among all the groups in Ethiopia Afar, Somali, Oromo, Sidama...liberation fronts one has a key to Eritrea.

Tigray was the Key. Historically its the original Xabesha, Original Christian, Original Islam. Geostartegically is located between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Population wise it shares either blood or long common identity with 90% population in Eritrea.

Once Tigray decided enough of war, let the Eritreans vote and if they decide to separate let them go.

It was game over. The Amxara cried shouted cursed and cussed the most.

Tigray answer was simple: If you Amxara think you are men, here is the gun go fight Eritrea and keep it by force in Ethiopia. Not a single person tried not even few friends group. Game over.

See the uncanny similarity?

Somali nationalists should bear gifts to Puntland, "pray" for Puntlands peace and prosperity and give Puntland even extra space in Somalia power structure.

If Puntland gets fed up with the status quo and the statusquo becomes costly yet no return. The choice is clear.

Not Somaliland, but Puntland will be forced to call for Somaliland referndum. Then it will be all over.
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Oodweyne   

Haatu,

It's rather nice of you to put your cards on the table. And I really would not fault you for your take of SNM and what you consider they were and are all about. Although, you have over-egged the pudding (as it were) of your argument a little, but still apart from two "glaring points" (in which I shall shortly show you of how you have missed the boat with them), you are largely correct in your generic analysis of the Somali political situation.

However what spoiled your narratives are (as I said it) these two points, which are, firstly, what SNM were about from get go. And second, the other point in which you are wrong about is your quite legitimate disdain for what you call "Will of the people", is in my view, quite misplace in here. And you are wrong in your view of thinking how the elites usually engineers things for themselves. Which is favorite "social theory" popularize by the likes of Prof Noam Chomsky with his take of "manufacturing of consent" through public media manipulation by the western's elites.

I will come to deal with this point in a minute, and I will indeed show you in turn how that doesn't tell the whole picture even if you take as an example the Brexit experience. Which are by the looks of it, your final evidence in which you have settled for it in-terms of how elites manufacture the consent from the average citizens from the street.

But, now let me deal directly, or at least as the first out of the gate sort of argument about what you think the then SNM and her offspring were and are all about. And in that sense let me say the following:

Firstly, it's true that clan that supported the then SNM were the ones who were most gung-ho for the union of all Somali territories. And they were for it, because they felt that the Brits had betrayed them by handing out a junk of their land to Ethiopia behind their back and without telling them. Hence, the deeper and most motivating thing that was animating them was a way to get a larger Somali body-politic get-together or get it going, which in turn can be of enough weight and with enough body to which to avenge that "historical injustice" in which they have suffered under the British and from the legendary perfidious duplicity of the Brits, who in turn "handed" over their land to someone else, namely to Ethiopia. And therefore the idea of uniting all Somali territories in which SNM clans were deeply keen on, at least from the get-go, has that sort of earthly rationale behind it. This was a way of aggregating enough Somali muscles into one political State in-order to settle account with that "collection of the daylight land's thieves", in which Imperial State of Ethiopia (with an assist from the British, as always) has been to them since late 19th century

Secondly, there was "another strand of thinking" within the SNM's folks (especially at the Elites level) that hold the view or the opinion that says such notion of making Somalis as “aggregate-able force" and "binding" them into a one powerful State against Ethiopia was foolish idea. Since, no one in the south was that much interesting in such notion. And in fact this particular thinking went to suggest that the southern's elites were only interesting the pursuit of clannish power and how to win that power in Mogadishu and nothing else. Hence, these "two competing ideas" were at play, within the Elites level of the SNM's clan, even at the moment the blue flag was raised in Hargeisa in 26th of June in 1960. Foretelling the upcoming union of the two would-be Somali States of Somalia and Somaliland in the 1st of July of that same year of 1960.

However, the manner in which the D-Block and H-Block divvied up the newly minted Somali State in the first round of power allocation right after the day the creation of the first Somali Republic was consummated actually became apparent to many folks within this SNM''s clan's Elites that these notion of larger Somali Statehood is not something the elites of Somalia (i.e., South) are that much interesting in it. Particularly if it were to interfere with their pursuit of clannish power grab at all cost in Mogadishu.

Consequently even from the mid-August of 1960, the likes of Cabdilahi Suldaan Timacadde (of Kana Siib Kana Saar poetic fame) was lamenting and was angry about the way political power was essentially divvied up (and being grabbed) in Mogadishu, and northerners came home empty handed from that self-serving "I-will-scratch-your-back-if-you-scratch-my-back-political-stitched-up" between "H-block" and "D-block" political elites. So you are right in the sense that most of the SNM's elites were convinced that the old Somali Union of 1960 was nothing less than a “historical mistake” of the most profound kind. But at the same time, some were convinced that a deep institutional reform, or if you like a political "correction" can be done to it later on. Or as they say in Somali: "Caano Qubteyba Dabadood Laqabey" (or words to that effect).

This incidentally, is the reason that when Gen. Siad Barre took power by force in 21st of October of 1969, the most enthusiastic folks who were supporting him were actually the educated and the political elites of this SNM's clan, even if Barre had actually deposed an elected government that was ruled by one of their own son, namely, late Mr. M. I. Egal who was the PM in which Gen. Barre's had dissolved his government that was in power at the time of the military coup.

And the reason things were that way with the elites of SNM's clan was that they thought such open “bartering of power” between clans in the parliament of 1960s (which is a method that can be made as a "baleful predecessor" of the "current 4.5 absurdity"), which was what used to happened between 1960 till 1969, was something that keenly betrayed the essence of Somali nationalism of the sort they wanted it their Somali State to embody. And it was a betrayal of the things they believed in, since that way of power-sharing between clans was nothing less than a crude form of "institutionalized clannish horse-trading". Which was then what was practiced in Somalia during most of 1960s.

And more to the point, they also thought that Mr M. I. Egal (their very own son) had been truly "captured" by that "corrupt clannish southern system" of 1960s and that notion of clans bartering with other clans for the sake of trying to attain power was manifestly egregious to any notion of having one Strong Somali's central State that can take care of Somalis's destiny, down the road. And therefore, they, as a political and educated elites of this clan, deeply felt that Mr Egal (who was one of their own, remember) was a problem too for Somali nationalism (or at least their version of it). For they wanted to build that "powerful state" in-order for it to have the strong muscle, which in turn can go after "the daylight's thieves of their land". Which was what Ethiopia (with the help of Brits) has done to their own territories of "Hawd and Reserve Areas" .

Hence as you can see the educated and the political elites of this SNM's clan were willing to accept a genuine strong Somali State that deals fair and squarely with all comers without given anyone any leg-up sort of favoritism. Even if it means someone else who was not one of their own clan running the State itself. Which was the reason that most of the civilian's minsters of Gen. Barre's government when he first took power in 1969, were to a man from this SNM's clan and from their elites, who supported Gen. Barre's military government in most of the early to late 1970s, very enthusiastically. And they were, of course, even happy to see a quasi-democratic government run by one of their own son (i.e., Mr M. I. Egal) being deposed by the Military junta under Gen. Barre, if the alternative was going to be much better for all concern in-terms of the Somali nationalism in which the State must uphold. Which was what they wanted it to see happen for the sake of the "Lost territories" in the "Hawd and Reserve Areas" that they wanted a strong Somali State to get it back.

So I disagree with you in-terms of the length the SNM’s elites could be said that they were “harboring” the notion of actually abandoning the Somali State. It wasn't even the case as mid-to-late 1970s. Although, to be fair in here, they were some who most definitely were willing (and wanted it in fact) to abandon this Somali State as early as in December of 1961. Like the "junior military officers" who had staged the aborted coup in the North in that month. Hence, in a probabilistic sense, the majority of the elites of this SNM’s clan were, in heart and in spirit, still willing to perfect the Somali State and bend it toward justice for all. And still they had hoped that such State can be set it up in a way it can have a decent chance for it to get it back the "lost territories" from the Ethiopia, by any means necessary. And that was what was really and deeply important to them. 

Thirdly, what changed all of that, and what changed everything and tip the balance of the "political sentiment" towards the direction of the folks who had advocated all along and all the way back from the early years of the union for the "abandonment" of the Somali State and instead favored the creation of a brand new Somaliland's state of their own right and after their own image, was the fact that by late 1970s, even the last hope of the Somali nationalism, namely, Gen Siad Bare, just turned out to be another one of those guys with "false prospectus" in-terms of who he was and what he was about. And once he started to unleash his "inner-Hitler" (along with hellfire) on the civilians’ folks in the North, then the game of the Somali union and for the Somali State was truly over bar the shout of the fat lady, who were yet to sing. And, of course, she duly did that, come in 18th of May of 1991.

Fourthly, it's here where your argument about elites "engineering" a political sentiment from the average citizens in the streets and therefore working (or molding) the folks into whatever political direction they want them to go to actually false apart. And by that I mean in 1960s in most of early 1970s, even if the whole elites of the SNM’s clan (who, remember, were also divided themselves about desirability of the Somali State) were to have in fact get together and decide or say that we should abandon the Somali state, the average citizen of this particular clan in Hargeisa, in Burco, in Berberra, in Ceerigaabo, would not have been convinced at all of the justice of such momentous course of action. And that would have remain the case, however what changed was that these middling folks had finally saw with their own eyes the daily horrific experiences of the brutal occupation of Gen. Barre's army in their towns and in their regions. Hence, that "raw merciless reality" then became for them their political “reference point" when it comes for them determining whether they are better off or not in being part and parcel of this Somali State that is actually and systematically persecuting them.

Hence, to use the "Brexit analogy", one can say that it's true that some self-serving British elites did chaperoned this Brexit through public campaign. But still, I would wager to say that they needed to work with the grain of a deeply-held British public's subconscious idea. And such idea is that no matter how you slice it, no matter how you dice it, no matter how you fit-it-up, no matter how you shake-it-to-the-side and then do it for the other way round, the average Brits will never accept that he is European. Unlike the German's citizens of Stuttgart, or the French's citizen of Lyon, who to a man and to a woman, believe that they are all European.

And these Germans and these French also believe that to be French or to be a German and then to be European at the same time is not contradiction in terms, as the average working Class man (or woman) from Sunderland of UK (say for example) will always believe so. Since those citizens in Sunderland believes that he or she is either English at best of it. Full-stop. Period. Or he or she is a Brit at the top of it. But, at any rate, there is no way they are some sort of European's fellows singing their hearts out to Beethoven's Ode to Joy's European Union anthem as a mark of their true appreciation of being a European. Hence, the English elites who engineered the Brexit outcome for UK (and they were mostly English elites, not Scots's elites or Walsh's elites) had a deeply layered and a powerful "national sentiments" to work with it when it comes to how to get Brexit being accepted by the British's voters. Not against it. So these English's political elites didn't needed to "manufacture" anything at all from thin air. 

Finally, it's similar reality with the SNM's political and educated elites, which means regardless of what they may have wanted in the absence of Gen. Barre's brutal occupation of the North you would not have today's Somaliland. full stop. Period. This was the reason that high echelons of the SNM's political leadership deliberately left it at vague as to what should happen to the essence of the Somali State and its political union, once Gen. Barre is deposed (if he is deposed at all). And the reason was that they were (as I said it) deeply divided between those who were "regretting" the very idea of actually joining that benighted Somali's union back in 1960 on one hand. And those who were saying that whatever "historical mistake" may have happened along the way, could be "corrected" once Gen. Barre is out of the way.

However what tip the balance towards the direction to those who were advocating, and doing it so vociferously, for a “clean political break" with the old Somali union of 1960, was the teeming masses of the country, from Ceerigaabo in the east to all the way to Gabiley to West, and all those in between, who became (at least by 1991) the sort of folks who would spit blood to your face, if you were to say to them that the old Somali union should be retain. And that was the case with them by the time they have seen what Gen. Barre and his occupation armies did to their country by May of 1991.

And that was the end of it, really, particularly in an ashes to ashes sort of finality, in so far as any “larger attachment" in which the average citizen of this SNM clan have had for the old discredited political union between Somalia and Somaliland. Or to any lasting sense of "political loyalty" in which these folks could conceivably have to that old Somali State, in whose deadly and genuinely genocidal handiwork they could easily see all around them by the spring of 1991

*******

NB:- Sorry about the long post, for the subject matter in which you have raised in here needed too deep of a detail analysis to do justice to it. Hence, the length of the reply.

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