As false regional enclaves created by Mengistu and Meles implode, Somali government must have a plan to avoid the looming civil wars.

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The writing was on the wall, yet we decided to ignore the warnings of the wise people.  It has been known throughout the Somali history that regimes couldn't survive or sustain themselves more than one generation. Usually the early euforia and the goodwill of the populace lasts about a decade and then the decline brought by the combination of corruption, nepotism, incompetence and naked clan hegemony and looting brings the barely functioning system to the ground.


You can not sustain a system by grievances or blaming others for your failures. What worked a decade or so ago is useless now.The advent of the information highway and free exchanging of ideas by Somalis through the country and in the diaspora had quicken the collapse of the tribal enclaves. In early sixties and seventies coup d'etats succeeded by taking over the presidential palace and the radio station. Whoever controlled the Radio transmissions also controlled the narrative.


Through the internet and social media people are finding out hidden informations. Job seeking graduates in Hargeisa would participate on the job exams run by the ministry, yet, latter they found out that most of the people needed for the job were already been hired by the  clan minister at night after the clan elders visited him at home. Soon people will know many clan members work in these  ministries. 


In Puntland you might see a town where all the security and top public sector managers belong to the clan either holding the top post or their allies. As we speak a new Rainbow ( Jeegaan ) group  led by a small influential insiders in Garowe control public purse and contracts. The most used word in these Somali clan enclaves is that ' the clan is acting like a government ( Reer Hebel ayaa inoo dawladaynaya). In the eyes of the people, all they see is a clan  henchmen deputised by the clan political  leaders. Injustice is everywhere.


Another major phenomena that is creating problems for the enclaves is the huge growth of population and youth in these places. Tens of thousands are graduating from all these false universities who doesn't train them any meaningful life skills to earn a living. Everyone is  trained to be a clerk, manager or business administrator. If the air  condition at the hotel breaks down , or electric blackouts happen, no one among these young men will be able to fix them, yet, they all carrying these degrees and want office jobs. These young men and women are leaving their hometowns to the high seas or other places including Mogadishu. Many of them are encountering other young Somalis with similar aspirations and suddenly the false barrier established by the tribal enclaves to enslave their  minds are broken. Kids from Hargeisa and Borama are finding hope and happiness at the volatile city of Mogadishu. Unlike the old generation, they are not loyal to the clan or what it stands for. They want to survive and earn a living.


Former Puntland leader C/weli Gaas had cashed to bring the DP World to Boosaaso and so far no one knows how the contract works. Nothing meaningful has been done to develop or modernize the port.  In  the nineties , it took less than three years for DP to build the Djibouti oil terminal and the port. In Hargeisa, a vulture like and hungry ministers had given away the strategic port of Berbera for peanuts.THey even cashed the rent of both 2017 and 2018 before they even left office.


A relative peace in these regions  had emboldened  the politicians to keep the people poor and underdeveloped. 21  years in Puntland and  30 years in Somaliland  is a long time to grow, industrialize and build basic institutions  people could trust. In fact, in Somaliland the system had regressed for the last nine years. under Cigaal and Rayaale governors were appointed from the local regions. Sillamyo changed and the unhinged rebel Ina Biixi followed suit.


Yet, despite these setbacks Somalis from west, east and south are rebelling against the corrupt oligarchs who manage these enclaves. In Puntland, the parliament speaker allowed the leader , Mr. Deni , to be questioned in public by a member of parliament . The false king got  so angry he ordered the attorney general of Puntland to ask the parliament to lift the immunity and jail the offending member. When the speaker tried to delay his sacking by using parliamentary procedures, he attacked the parliament and killed the guards. Their attitude of entitlement is mind boggling. How dare they are asking questions is the attitude.


In JUbbaland, a man who ruled 8 years as the undisputed dictator could not even allow others to contest the election. No international community nor the UN would overrule the objections of the federal government by demanding fair elections. The latest is that Ahmed Madoobe is willing to hold a new elections but his vice president and another ally Mr. Darwiish clashed  with him by saying why we went through all of this if you are willing to cave. After all Madoobe might have realized that his actions would only balkanize Jubba and his own community.


Enough of the long history and drama. Let us delve in to the generational crises and find solutions.


AS we speak there is big  fires  had started burning in the North East and the North West. For many years , conventional wisdom  said that peace is not the absence of war but a peace of mind and acceptance and settling down with reality. Everything build on false premises crumbles no matter how big. 


In the west of Hargeisa , a looming conflict between the Awdal community and West Hargeisa had been in the clouds for a long time and could ignite any time. In Awdal coast another orchestrated war is looming.  In the east, the Sool region had been in either total war or low intensity conflict since 2007.  That war may start anytime if and when the rebels get some  meaningful military assistance. In Sanaag general Caare is curving territory while negotiations continue.


Few months ago, the largest Somaliland army contingent in the east left their positions and joined Puntland. The two thousand armed men belong to Maakhir region people. THere are ongoing negotiations between the Makhiris ( Sanaag East)  and Sool to set up a confederate regional government between them while abandoning both Puntland and Somaliland. No one knows how that will end, but a Sool/Sanaag region might finish off both Somaliland and Puntland.


 Muuse biixi and the government of the West of Somaliland had decided not to interfere anymore on the issues of east Sanaag. According to international crisis group, the last weapon purchase of Somaliland from Ethiopia were in 2015. Due to dwindling resources, Muuse  might have decided to use the resources he has to protect the economic zones of the west mainly: Berbera, Wajaale and Loyacado and ditch the east all together. AS the army chief of Somaliland said, ' we can not continue to pay' . in other words , let us keep the resources strategically since there is a fear that the wheel might come off soon.


Insiders say that while their are hostile media statement and war like posturing from these to regions , clandestine communications does exist between C/laahi Deni and Muuse Biixi  to keep the eastern communities divided and weak. While Deni is acting like someone interested in SAnaag, he gave Somaliland free hand in Sool and Tukaraq area. In the Haud area of Hargeisa stretching Baligubadle, the Ahmed Dhagax community is mulling to create its own region from the east of Hargeisa. This so called regions proclaimed by many clans in Somaliland doesn't mean they are viable or legitimate in the eyes of many Somalis, but the intention is mostly to create a  political, military and safe zone for their clans  to protect their interest.


While people around the world are rising up against corrupt politicians and sectarian leaders Somali public has behaved either like sheep, a rebel or anarchist. It seems time are changing.  In Iraq and Lebanon, people rejected the foreign instigated  of Shia and Sunni labels. While having all the necessary levers of government, the Shia of Iraq had found out that other than what Saddam left nothing has been done in their country in terms of basic services. Yet, Iraqi politicians are stealing billions of oil revenue and buying big homes in LOndon and America. Just like the 4.5 of Somalia sectarian labels had kept politician to keep their seat to be challenged by others while doing nothing for his supposed sect.


While the problems of South Central Somalia are mainly political, exasperated by international terrorism, meddling of the neighboring states and Al-shabaab, the one in the North east/west is tribal in nature. Which means if Al-shabaab are defeated in south central area , their economic growth within few years will surpasse what these tribal enclaves had done in peace for more than two decades. In fact, my Puntland friends told me that the project supposed to transmit governing to the national level within a decade while maintaining local governance. No one envisioned a Puntalnd state with standing army and diplomatic maneuvering.


In Puntalnd , a clan that dominates the city of Garoowe keep acting like those in Mogadishu whose foolish actions destroyed the pearl of the Indian ocean. Just like those in Mogadishu who never learn their lessons after 30 years, as Shariif Ahmed demonstrated, the Faroole gang might kill the hen that laid the golden goose. Boosaaso was boiling for the last few years as the clan hegemony of Jeegan anchored in Garoowe  grew bigger. Money to bribe and buy is dwindling and locals will no longer accept the corrupt deals of C/weli Gaas to be repeated again by the Islaax group and Damujadiid member Deni.


In GalMudug, people are bribed to form a regional government to manage their security affairs and wellbeing of their citizens. When I watch Galmudug bloggers, all they talk is how millions of dollars supposed to be bribed to  the false Sheikh Shaakir and his henchmen in Dhuusamareeb..None of them are debating about creating a system that protects their citizens and build sa lasting harmony. You can not protect some who want to steal his own camels. Those who want to start the long winding road of enclaves must look those us from Somaliland and learn something. WE couldn't provide basic services of collecting garbage or simple courts to adjudicate among citizens.


While forming  decentralized government is the desire of many Somalis the current regional governments and the Somaliland system was the brainchild of Mengistu and Meles. It is a foreign idea coupled with the fiercely independent of the Somali spirit and the ambitions of the hungry tribe who believe the whole state might not be enough for their own clan let alone the millions of Somalis.


A young man named Dhaqaale in SOL  kept talking about looming civil war in Somalia. Unlike many , I always pay attention to those who show intelligence and think outside the box. That civil war might come to places that were peaceful in theory while the simmering hot coal were covered. If a system doesn't progress it regresses and eventually it dies. Bribing and buying people might have worked the senile and sick Siilaanyo, but can not continue with the people's money. It doesn't matter who the leader is or which clan he hails from, you could only rise as much as your incompetence allows you.


Have you seen the Tigray president visit Egypt, Germany or  UAE? No. THese false regions were not for Somalis or by Somalis. 


Look at Hiiraan. It has more tribal issues than anywhere  else, yet we are all ignoring. In South Central Somalia, if there is any place that has similar tribal and gread issues like the north is Hiiraan. One clan is acting like the equalizers while hundreds of thousands of people resent their greed and political maneuvering. They are even trying to loot and take 100% of flood donations while others are neglected. Hir-Shabeelle is the best candidate for dismantling the false regional enclaves.



How can we avoid the coming civil war and achieve peace and  an all encompassing national government?.


I do not have solutions . Yet, would like to throw some of my ideas  that  could  bring the public together while pulling the carpet under the rotting system.


Farmaajo and the federal government can convene a national reconciliation conference like the one  that took place in Carta, Djibouti 20 years ago. Without the consent of the regional oligarchs, the government can convene a civic and national convention to create local and 18 province councils to manage these regions. The federal government must assume that other than Puntland and Somaliland , the other regions are either in nascent state like the South West or non existent like Hir-Shabeele and Galmudug. In Jubbaland what you have is clan militia backed by Kenya and nothing else. There is no services, legislation or city councils. It is one city proxi army.


Before you hold the national conference, you must  take these life changing steps:


Firat, choose an educated and Somali centric leader in Jubbaland . Forget about Xidig, Seerar or anyone from the current players .I would choose a military leader who will pacify the land a push the Kenyans out. 


Second, depose C/laahi Deni through people's revolution or military mutiny. Help elect a Puntland leader who is willing to help the national agenda . Someone who understands that there is no nation state without national government. Regional governments running schools , hospitals and roads are minor issues before establishing national government. Everyone must ditch the big and false shoes tailored by Ethiopia and others. I never see my local mayor,  who controls  more than two billion dollars when he travels or his entourage. A local governor controlling 100 million a year should be driving a chevy not Cadilac.


Third, help create the Sool/Sanaag regional state which will weaken the North/east/west regions. Make sure Somaliland means only the clans that agreed in the Borama conference  in 1993, mainly Hargeysa/Burco/Borama. 


Then will move to the second stage.


To be continued...........

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Galbeedi there isn't much of a conflict in Somaliland between clans. Divisions in Somaliland are all but  what people propogated on social media. The actual people in Somaliland are not divided along clan lines like in Somalia.  Reer baligubadle have no interest to create separate  region with in maroodijeex. There are only six regions in Somaliland. Awdal maroodijeex to dheer Sool sanaag and saaxil. And the parliament of Somaliland did not pass another law to change the provinces of the. Country.  Somaliland has no relations with Somalia and certainly not with its sub regions puntland  or galmudug or other clan states created after 2006.  As for your comment the state idea was the brainchild of mengistu is just a false narrative. Mengistu had no interest in Somaliland and meles zenawi tigrawi was more fixated with Italian Somalia. Somaliland was created by its people after 1991  and its people wanted to dissolve the cancerous Union which destroyed both Somalia and Somaliland.

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And who is camay he is from togdheer trying to represent his people from Mogadishu. We have seen many Somalilanders who  worked  underneath koonfurians just to be humiliated and demoted. They all come back at the end to their country Somaliland. As for Ethiopia Somalia relations. Ethiopia occupies large parts of Somalia I think the policy  should be to remove Ethiopians from Somalia politically diplomatically milillatarly. By the way the woman president of Ethiopia is very smart and intellectual she is amhara old school Ethiopia and  she knows how to deal  with  Somalia. She is not  regular TPLF but old school amhara. There is a reason why abiye Ahmed made her symbolic president of Ethiopia. 

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Kulmiye party is ruled by *** and *** alliance called Jeegan. This alliance came about because after the Buco conferences Cigaal became president. He was a *** favourite and they were happy with this choice. The Waadani party is dominated by Habir yoonis. The second president of Somaliland was Dahir riyale kahin was from Borama ( a *** stronghold) a neutral clan with no real population dominance. Silanyo was the chairman of the SNM and third president of Somaliland he was chosen by Kulmiye party based on him being ***. Muse Bihi is a former fighter pilot for the Somali military government who turned into a rebel against said government via the SNM. He too is *** as well and chosen by the Kulmiye party. 

The *** are divided along clan lines and the beef between *** and *** is real and deep. otherwise Caare would not be rebelling in the east against is so called kin. Don't be fooled by this united *** front that the Somaliland goverment like to project. The *** are not hardcore secessionist like the ***. We know all of this becuase Abdillahi Yusuf, of puntland, learned this in 2007. This is the truth, Somaliland may descend into fall scale civil war by 2020 or 2021.

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19 hours ago, maakhiri1 said:

Camey, a Northerner representing SOMALIA in ETHIOPIA.

First task, to close all secessionist offices.



Ethiopia will open second office in Puntland.

Somaliland has never been attached to any group in Ethiopia. They can work with any group since they always keep their distance even with Meles.

Let alone the Addis people even with Kililka is the same. Somaliland was never too deep and dancing with anyone. Just good working relations.

There is something called pride that comes from governing oneself. No matter how much money or recognition they have Ethiopia for Somalilanders is just another country. Of course I am a bit exagerating, but you know what it is.

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You are going against the times. Centralization is for now not in fashion.

UK will make region of North East (England) soon and make it equal to Wales. The Scottish of course are highest level of decentralization.

Spain, Canada, US, Belguim...Everybody is now hating central governments even the federal once.

Globalism is dead for now.


BTW some facts:

Mengistu hated regional autonomy. Mengistu wanted Somalia to be under Aidiid.

SNM or SSDF were created long before Meles started climbing ladder in TPLF rebels.

Federalism is actually glorified Nomad order. Go back in history and clans or sub-clans always had autonomy from Sultanates, Boqors...Nomad does not like to be told how to live from far away places.


Let alone Somaliland or Puntland even other regions will not give up self governing, even self bandit let alone government.



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