Che -Guevara

Attempted coup d'etat against leadership of the Amhara regional state: Abiy's Comments

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galbeedi   

 I do not understand  how taking over of a kilil by force  would help Amhara opposition, unless they were preparing to rake over the whole country simultaneously.

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7 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

There was assassination attempt on Dr. Ambachew Mekonnen. Other members of top leadership were targeted too. There's still firefight in Bahir Dar.

 

The Amxara radicals were running out of time. General Assaminew was the one training militia gangs etc and calling for war against Tigray and Oromo.

The Agew have had enough in Amxara kilil. They will have their Kilil and are closest to Tigray. General Assaminew few days ago made a statement that the Agew are making trouble and destroying Amxara unity as messengers of Tigray.

He openly spoke cutting them and Tigray to pieces.

Dr. Ambatchew is accused by Assaminew being to close to Oromo Abiy and preventing Assaminew from waging war on Agew and Tigray and Oromos in Amhara kilil.

 

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1 hour ago, galbeedi said:

 I do not understand  how taking over of a kilil by force  would help Amhara opposition, unless they were preparing to rake over the whole country simultaneously.

You need a base a kilil to do anything in today's Ethiopia.

If you take over Addis Ababa just one kilil can reverse the result.

That is how Tigray set up the whole thing. Its not like other countries.

Example the army is organized in 4 areas with total and complete leadership and weapons depots..everything. There is gebneral staff for each area and the command is set each member is from different Nationality.

Example Northern Command:

Commander Oromo

Deputy Welayrta South

Logistics Amxara

Operations Tigray

etc.

 

 

Politically: If you don't have enough strength in your home base forget it you are a nobody.

Me thinks Abtigis was in the group or very close to Amxara and Ginbot 7.

He might come out on the losing end but not dangerous.

Winners will be Federalists no matter what happens.

 

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Holac   

Abtigiis might be in trouble because he aligned himself with Amhara.

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This is the result of legitimacy coming from the barrel of the gun rather than thru the ballot box. Somalia with all it problems has turned the corner. It is time Ethiopians change the culture of military rule.

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14 minutes ago, Peace Action said:

This is the result of legitimacy coming from the barrel of the gun rather than thru the ballot box. Somalia with all it problems has turned the corner. It is time Ethiopians change the culture of military rule.

It's too early to claim that when it's foreign forces keeping it afloat.

I do not think Somalia has turned a new page. The level of mistrust means there will always be winners and losers. 

 

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1 hour ago, Che -Guevara said:

Observer,

How well coordinated was this attempt?

In Amxara kilil its well organized well funded (All the washington and california diaspora). Gun running has been going on for a year. Open hate propaganda against Oromo and Tigray has been going on for a year.

Its led by a person chief of security, militia, Liyu ..of the kilil

Its well connected with Eritrea and probably armed support.

Addis Ababa except for killing some officals not much to do.

 

Abiy: These are forces who want us to fight ethnic against ethnic. The shooting they did was against individuals and no ethnic should feel threatened.

That is what he said. It seems directed to calm Tigray, since they are capable of going to Amxara kilil and turn the place up side down if Tigray feels they are under threat.

 

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1 hour ago, Holac said:

Abtigiis might be in trouble because he aligned himself with Amhara.

I think so, but the Somali is still considered armed and dangerous from the image of Illey days. So, if Abtigis makes short statement and speak as a Somali only he will be OK.

He was too much in a hurry to make a name in Ethiopia rather than just govern and develop his people.

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5 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

Observer,

How well coordinated was this attempt?

Well, coordinated or not, it does look like the Amhara have now become impatient with their original strategy of toadying and ingratiating  themselves with Abiy, in the hopes of course, of having him make them his closest allies in Ethiopia. They saw this as a necessity to help them retake power in Ethiopia, but clearly Abiy is unable to oblige them for he too has his Oromo base to keep happy who do not trust the Amhara, and for that matter anybody else who they see as threat to their nascent power in Addis. 

In any case, now that the Amhara elites —who yearn for their former glory —have now instead opted to resort to coups and violence to regain their much coveted political foothold in their home region and Ethiopia in general, what is Abiy to do in the snake pit that is modern Ethiopia?

I believed, all his grandiose talk of freedom, democracy and communal love in such a divided country— where nearly all ethnicities have historical grievances and chips on their shoulders against one another— was never going to be practical. 

It’s a catch 22 for him.

With this Amhara insurgency openly exploding right next to his seat of power, he is now forced to abandon his “reforms” and resort to strongman tactics to quell the Amhara insurrection, which I believe won’t be easy for him. He does not and will not get the support of the other ethnicities, especially theTigray whom he just deposed.

In fact the Tigray who’re armed to the teeth and who see such a conflict between their rivals a godsend will be more than willing to sit on the sidelines and watch the Amhara and Oromo tear themselves to pieces, in the hopes of maybe picking up the pieces afterwards.

 

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It seems , with internet fully shutdown,  things are being  under reported.

Many officials killed, and fighting still going on. Coup still on

 

"The head of Ethiopia's Amhara state and his advisers were killed during a coup attempt in their state, state media reported on Sunday."

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21 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

 

As much as I want to see Ethiopia disintegrate, I hope there is no war. It will be catastrophic for the Horn, specifically for us.

I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but there will be war in Ethiopia.

History has left us ample lessons to show us around the world that wherever authoritarian systems of government are,  that sooner or later a cathartic bloodletting must occur to purge the society of the evils of that tyranny. 

Ethiopia desperately needs a new social contract to unite all its peoples, but this can only be done by defeating completely all the former corrupt elites from as far back as the days of Haile Selasie, to Mengistu, to Zenawi who all yearn to get back in power to reinstall their failed autocratic visions for Ethiopia.

Naturally the result of all this will be war and instability for many years to come in the Horn, and however scary the prospects might look for Somalis of SomaliGalbeed,  methinks, they will fare much better than most. After all, the 5-sides star in the Somali flag does have its uses sometimes.

 

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Tallaabo   
1 hour ago, Tillamook said:

Naturally the result of all this will be war and instability for many years to come in the Horn, and however scary the prospects might look for Somalis of SomaliGalbeed,  methinks, they will fare much better than most. After all, the 5-sides star in the Somali flag does have its uses sometimes.

Indeed the Somali over there might not even notice any economic hardship except for a slight reduction in the salaries of the Liyu police and politicians. They might quickly replace their reliance on Addis Ababa's budget contributions to taxation from the gains of unhindered trade with Djibouti, Somaliland, and Somalia. But that is only if the Somalis there maintain some unity and order and don't quickly get on each other's throats as well. 

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