Che -Guevara

Did Iley and co try to invoke Article 39?

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galbeedi   

Dahireeto,

some Liyu police members fled in the Djibouti border regions for fear of retaliation. The non Somali residents of Jijiga had demanded that the Liyu to vacate the city and the federal police is keeping the peace in the city.

The Amhara and some Oromo are pushing the  disbanding of the Liyu but the Somali Kilil leadership has refused. If they disband the Liyu, a full fledged insurgency by a well trained and ruthless force might destroy any chances of Abiy rule in Ethiopia. 

This Abiy guy already mishandled this Jijiga issue, and if he targets the Liyu he would get a tough battle that is 100 times bigger than the ONLF.

Also, he must remove the Tigray officers who might not be  stopping communal conflicts, but fueling them. He must deploy troops to Dire Dawa and other flash points.

 

 

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Mooge   
41 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

The new temporary president is a close ally of Cabdi Illey. He was the finance minister of the outgoing government.

Tobbe successful he must distance himself from his protege and build new bridges or he could face similar problems like Illey 

Galbeedi, what is the future of the opposition in Dire Dhabe now? will we see Awbarre or Lafaciise  clans leading the region niyoow? that move will be really good for the region and somali morale niyoow. I am not against my D clan leading the region, but other Somalis must lead the region too niyoow.  

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galbeedi   

By the way, the Liyu police is not entirely OG. Other comments from Moyale, Awbare and other have large numbers. They are very close group that is trained to stick to gather.

They can easily defeat any forces .

Moore, 

The Dire Dawa group is insignificant other than few districts in the Djibouti borders area, they  do not have the population or the land. Most of the people in that region had already moved to Djibouti . It is the main reason Dire Dawa has has fallen to Oromo hands. Shiniile  it self is shared with us and a large Dir group called Gurgure.

The Awbare, Dambal, Dharwanaaje and others are organizing as we speak, we have other large Dir group who are also significantly, but at the moment , the Awdal community is allied with OG leadership, because they do not want to dismantle the existing order which could lead the collapse of the system. That is why the locals never risen up against Cabdi illey.

We can also reach out the Jaarso Somalis who for political reasons abandoned the Somali Kilil. These are natural towns of the Somalis who left because of certain grievances. We must bring back the Jaarso and other Somalis who live in the middle of our region. 

We also believe that a fair election should be the only way to change the current leadership, and we reject those who are trying to sneak in from Dire Dawa .if elections are held the Dir can win easily by sheer number,  they are not as homogeneous like the OG.

Also, the ONLF is very significant in terms of the future negotiations. The Somali independent movement should be always around to comfort if Abiy starts the old order

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Oodweyne,

One would hoped Somalis would at-least be pragmatic. They don't have to like each other, they can even hate each other. It is like they don't think beyond today. I see people salivating over Iley's demise [man is simply evil and sadistic] but I rather to sit down and make a transitional government than have a Oromo in Addis impose a new stooge.

It must noted that Abiy hasn't done this to any other region.

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2 hours ago, Oodweyne said:

Okay, guys.

Is anyone going to say the obvious now? Or are we all going in circles and dance around the issue without cutting to the quick and to the marrow of it?

But since, I see everyone wants to spare the blushes of the Somali name and not be bloody-minded about actually exposing what took place in here today in the Somali region of Ethiopia, then I will be the kid who called out the "nakedness of the emperor" (as it were)..:D

And in that sense I will say, with no sugar-coating the blow, that Mr Illey and his folks "blinked", and blinked decisively when they were told what they are likely to face if they don't play ball and come to "Daddy Oromo" without too much fight.

Or when they were told (and I hope the fine ladies of this SOL place will forgive my vulgarity) that it's best: "to lay back and take it like a good kept-Somali that they are whilst thinking of mother Ethiopia in their throes of agony or ecstasy".

Furthermore, Somalis being a clannish and sub-clannish obsessed folks, it was easy for the Oromo's negotiators, to play a blinder of a "divide-and-rule" in-terms of "bartering" with this clan or with that sub-clan and promising them all sort of goodies (from the federal level down to State-level) if they peel away from any solidarity they hitherto have had with Mr Illey and his dwindling part of supporters.

Hence, it only took couple of hours of "stick and carrots" being used on to the Somalis, interchangeably, like so much of changing hot-water to cold-water in the shower, and the Somalis were ready to fold, like so much of a cheap suit.

And the worst offenders, who were ready to throw the towel in first, were none other than our friends who were supposed to be running the show in this Somali region, namely, the "long-footed-folks", who after only few hours of intense negotiation were ready to "cooperate" with the new masters from Addis. Provided, that their little racket of running the Somali region in perpetuity was assured to them by the new "shot-callers" in Addis, who in turn were ready to make a "concession" of that kind from their end.

So call this the Somali tragic story write-large. Or call it a curse. But it's undeniably the ugly reality Somalis will always be belaboring under it, in-terms of how their division always will invite all those who are ready to take a "chunky-bite" from them.

Moreover, when all "synthetic emotionalism" of "Somalinimo" are put aside, you could always rely on to see another Somali saying to any passing "chunky-biter", lusting after a Somali blood, as to what profit will he get from him were he to help him get his decently-proportion-fleshy-meat of a "bite" from the other Somali guy in which the "biter" wanted it to bite till he bleeds profusely.

Consequently, since we all Somalis are ready to throw each other under the bus. Or at least assist any "biter" who is around us, who also wants to bite a fellow Somali, then I may as well be honest enough with myself, and be the first to offer my assistance to any passerby "biter" who wants to "bite" a fellow Somali, provided I get something in return for my assistance.

And I will do that since I know as a matter-of-fact that the other Somali fellow is also making deal with the same "biter" so that he will assist him to "bite" me. And the only thing that is concern to him is not my well-being as a fellow Somali. But the "price" he will get for the assistance he will give to the said "biter" in his pursuit of wishing to "bite" my flesh till I scream with pain and of course bleed profusely and copiously. Hence, here end the Sad Story of Somalis. 

Correct and calling it like it is with few exceptions:

1. There is some damage, but fixable and the autonomy can be preserved. But now the fight will be even worst against autonomy, because everybody has seen what little autonomy can do.

2. The Oromo wanted war, because you can do more changes by war than you can by negotiation. They were also assured of war win since they have the military cards and million militia in their kilil which they can give federal uniforms, they can declare state of emergency and do damage that will take another generation to fix or even fatal.

3. To be fair this is far beyond kililka, not just for oil etc, but the whole thing UAE, America..Djibouti..Eritrea Yemen..makes this whole thing really not fair for the Somali anywhere and kililka the most which is in the den of the beast or empire.

The behaviour of some Somalis was outright shameful but worst than that st-pid. They thought that the Oromo will not negotiate so the Somali became more Oromo than the Oromo. Now they look more terrible than the Oromo.

 

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9 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

 

Isn't it amazing the Somali have the most civilized and developed political structure than any kilil in Ethiopia.

The party head and the president can be different. Even Iley was not president until two months ago in preparation for his resignation. He only took the post 2 months ago.

All Other kilils chief of party is also chief of kilil.

 

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3 minutes ago, Oodweyne said:

Well. why would he not only do this to the Somalis. After all, why go fight against hardy Tigreans, who will probably make you sorry that you ever bothered them in the first place, if you are Mr Abby Ahmed, when on the other hand, all you need with Somalis is a few hours of brow-beating and bit of "carrots-and-sticks" to go with the usual "divide-and-rule-clannish-game". And then, Voila, you will come away with a brand new stooge in the Somali region of Ethiopia.

And to boot, this new stooge, will be a sort of fellow willing to call you most morning in your office in Addis, just to wonder how your morning coffee was that day. Or whether he needed to come to Addis and actually make you one. Since it's not problem to him to travel from Jigjiga to Addis that same afternoon so that he can be there, bright and early, next-day for the labor-of-love your coffee will require from him. And of course, he will put in all of his soul and imagination into it so that your morning's job could get off wonderfully start with a nicely-brewed-steaming cuppa from his own very quisling hands, indeed.

You my friend not only do you need to write serious history books but comedic books for politicians as well.

Unique and so descriptive just like a picture.

Tigray as kilil is not 1/100th as important to Ethiopia as Somali kilil. Tigray is just history identity and some capacity. They have all centers of Jewish, Christian and Islam all in one kilil. They were also more nomads than farmers at least all around and they fight.

Somali kilil is gateway any problem there and the Oromo will be run out of town in a Mogadishu minute.

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5 minutes ago, Old_Observer said:

Isn't it amazing the Somali have the most civilized and developed political structure than any kilil in Ethiopia.

 

 

I don't know about that but their success will depend on exclusivity, in other words, swallow your pride and invite ONLF, all clans, etc. Only united political entity can get a better deal; otherwise, it will be some stooge chosen by Addis. 

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7 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

I don't know about that but their success will depend on exclusivity, in other words, swallow your pride and invite ONLF, all clans, etc. Only united political entity can get a better deal; otherwise, it will be some stooge chosen by Addis. 

Yes. But if fighting went on they would have physically destroyed so many things first among them ESTV and the Assembly and of course main target Liyu and even police.

This way you can preserve some or more of what is necessary for autonomy.

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galbeedi   

OO,

Somali Kilil is not developed as you claim, it just one man and his emediate family dictating. Illey was the chairman and the president, his sister in law was the Vice President and he has his close family members  both in security and government ministers including the  finance minister who became the new leader. More than half of the Somalis opposes him as much as the Oromo .

compare to other Kilil. Lema Magrasa refused  to step down after the Oromo uprising and the leader of the Amhara  Kilil chasedvthe federal police out of Amhara region. The other zones are led by grown men and mature counsel men who have the support of their people.

The battle was lost in 2016 when The Somali zone joined the efforts to save and die for the preservation of the TPLF. If Illey had allowed the Somali people to join the uprising things could have been different today. He chose to crush the uprising more than TPLF.

Now, thanks to Illey an emergency rule is imposed again and Somalia will get squeezed. In the meantime the Oromo will slow down.

The new president must Change the old  family  style of government and transform the region to an inclusive enitity that must work to get the trust of the Somalis to face long and short term problems.  Mr. Ahmed Cabdi has great opportunity to create a different system that could contrast that of his former boss.

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3 hours ago, galbeedi said:

OO,

Somali Kilil is not developed as you claim, it just one man and his emediate family dictating. Illey was the chairman and the president, his sister in law was the Vice President and he has his close family members  both in security and government ministers including the  finance minister who became the new leader. More than half of the Somalis opposes him as much as the Oromo .

compare to other Kilil. Lema Magrasa refused  to step down after the Oromo uprising and the leader of the Amhara  Kilil chasedvthe federal police out of Amhara region. The other zones are led by grown men and mature counsel men who have the support of their people.

The battle was lost in 2016 when The Somali zone joined the efforts to save and die for the preservation of the TPLF. If Illey had allowed the Somali people to join the uprising things could have been different today. He chose to crush the uprising more than TPLF.

Now, thanks to Illey an emergency rule is imposed again and Somalia will get squeezed. In the meantime the Oromo will slow down.

The new president must Change the old  family  style of government and transform the region to an inclusive enitity that must work to get the trust of the Somalis to face long and short term problems.  Mr. Ahmed Cabdi has great opportunity to create a different system that could contrast that of his former boss.

The one about Lema Megersa is fake news to make him look good at the time.

The One about Amhara kilil is he did the same as Iley, because he did not want soldiers from everywhere Ethiopia. So he offered the federal govt he will arrest himself anyone wanted but no army. He did arrest some 3,000 and handed them to federal. This system is good for everybody. Especially for Somalis who do not want open society to different cultures.

I think those Somalis who were begging the Oromo to remove Iley are now looking bad and feeling bad. But then again they are Somalis too and you don't want them to look bad after them sticking their long necks without noticing the risk.

Will take some time to repair the damage in the population some mistrust will linger.

They all knew Iley was going to resign, but they wanted some violence to change few more things more important than Iley the autonomy.

Dirdawa and the oil sharing agreement will also be affected.

Now both Iley and Ghelleh are sidelined as far as Dirdawa goes and the Oromo will take it for sure. I am sure you don't mind that. The 40 Oromo, 40 Somali and 20 all other Ethiopians allocation for positions in the city will change quietly first and then formaly.

BTW your candidate Shide will have a hard time being Somali for some time. Very embarrassing. I am sure he was reading what they gave him as spokesperson, but that was rich.

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