Illyria

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Everything posted by Illyria

  1. Very kind of you. You raised very good points of how best move forward, and I think under the right leadership, a viable solution is nearer than ever, and the more stable and capable FGS institutions get, the weaker the hand of SL, and eventually its bargaining chips shall have been diminished, which will make harmonisation much easier. Again, under the right leadership. Addendum: I am actually of the view of adopting the China-Hong Kong-Taiwan approach, where we let political configurations as it, till comes the time, where confidence and mutual public good had been had in all concerned parties in the Somali peninsula. No need for rushed or forced solutions, just let matters take their natural course. Things are rapidly changing for the better.
  2. No need for a war between Somalis / Muslims, besides the US bogus war on terror died with Bush Jr. Move the effing on from being camiiliin.
  3. The biggest threat to nation states are corrupt political leaders. Their biggest weapon is to subjugate the populace, and abuse their powers in the name of national security. Why does the public revolt: against injustice. What do just nation states do: address injustices, perceived or otherwise. What do broken, corrupt leaders do: destabilise to justify their methods by imprisoning, killing, uprooting the public.
  4. Servility and conformity, as a moral failure, in the act of being beholden to a political ideology, even when proven to be dangerously wrong. Case in point: criminal atrocities in Las Anod, wrongs against GXJS, the struggle of reer Awdal, the infamous MoU to name a few. You fail to see validity in any of those, for you are subservient to a political ideology, which goes against the public good (principle) for the people.
  5. Thank you for proving my point. See, interests are short-term, and come and go in a flash, however principles are well-grounded, and never change.
  6. Mind not XX, for he is not guided by principles, but desire for the untenable, and neither thinks through nor absorbs the implications, economic or otherwise, of what he is trading. As sussed out, he is stuck in another galaxy.
  7. Poor Galbeedi, for all the follies he could have scoffed, he lumps me with the colony-minded, serfdom-seeking, emperor-prostrating, jewel-auctioning, sea- dropping, land-grabbing, glue-sniffing, elders-abandoning, weapons-tossing, surrendering, dithering secessionists. I shall be kind till Awdal (our grandmother's land) has been liberated, with FMS status secured, from the fangs of the secessionists. True, rebels always pioneer, and one thing we have in common: A Somali peninsula free from subjugation and tyranny, a better future than that which the awful allies of "Ildab" had left it. By the way Galbeedi, that 15m for Awdal would not have happened had it not been for PL. You could than reer PL later.
  8. I could see you skipped school the day economics and accountancy were being taught. Last time I peeked at the budget for 2023: 87% of the revenue is through customs and excise, 78% of which is through Berbera. The primary user of Berbera has been Ethiopia for a number of years. Wajaale & Kalabaydh customs are relevant because of Berbera, and in the event Ethiopia has its own port, neither would be relevant. Now, do you want to revisit your original statement of being able to do with less revenue from Berbera?
  9. Casayr was an SNM veteran, former Somali national army, the Russia crew. You are talking about Caarre or Oofwareen. Now you know I know more about the reality in SL than you do.
  10. Of SL's 2023 annual budget of 420m, who much of that do you think is from taxes?
  11. Truth: SL actually does not have an actual standing army to speak of, but that is a conversation for another day for the grown-ups. Col Casayr is neither dead nor imprisoned, but is leading GXJS forces, but you would not know.
  12. You do realise 78% of SL annual revenue is sourced through Berbera port. For now I am intentionally not bringing in the regional security threat that would pose.
  13. Generals Garka Yogol & Botan would disagree with you. So would Col. Casayr. Reality is little different from where I am seated than how you are describing it. I am afraid we are not all wearing tinted glasses made in Dumbuluq.
  14. I am trying to follow your thought process: If Ethiopia agrees to give a farming land in return, you would willing to trade that for a land for a naval base and a port on the Red Sea for Ethiopia?
  15. In a nutshell, we have got shifting regional balance: a) Somali Republic is slowly rising from the ashes, albeit i) SL is losing its footing with more than 60% of its claimed territories out of its control, b) Ethiopia is disintegrating with its three major States (Tigray almost destroyed, Amhara on fire, and Oromo on the brink) in conflict with the Federal government. Said shift is vexing respective leaders, which gives way to their being unhinged, and thereby destabilising the entire region.
  16. But if they could raise the funds, and want to build a port, it is acceptable to you?
  17. The object is to highlight the plight of the Palestinian people. Could you think of a decent Independent candidate? There are no R Perot, R Nader, or R Paul.
  18. Re-read it slowly and carefully, then we shall discuss the merits of the article.
  19. Indirectly, eh? Mukhaabarat? XX: Could you attempt an answer ? What do your sources thinks about the Naval vs port? Ethiopia says it is a port and a naval base. What do your adeeradaa think?
  20. Historical context: Which way to the sea? Ethiopia has been landlocked and has sought a sea outlet intermittently for most of her history, at least since the Middle Ages. In 1776, Edward Gibbon, a renowned English historian, wrote: “Encompassed on all sides by the enemies of their religion, the Ethiopians slept near thousand years, forgetful of the world by whom they were forgotten.”6 Moreover, encouraged by the scramble for Africa among rival European powers in the nineteenth century, Emperor Menelik II of Ethiopia intensified his search for access to the sea. In 1878, in a letter to the heads of the governments of Italy, France, Germany, and England, he stated, “My road to the coast, to Zeila, Tojura, and Aden is at present closed by the Muslims.”7 Before 1952, when Eritrea (a former Italian colony on the Red Sea) was federated with Ethiopia, the eyes of Ethiopia’s leaders were fixated on the Eritrean port of Assab and the Somali port of Zeila, both on the Red Sea.8 Menelik’s efforts ended in failure. However, Emperor Haile Selassie, who ruled Ethiopia from 1930 to 1974, relentlessly sought to gain sea access. In a letter to the United Nations in 1948, he wrote: “Prior to the race of European powers to divide up Africa, Ethiopia included an extensive coastline along the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.”9 Haile Selassie tried to annex Zeila, a historical Somali port town, to Ethiopia between the late 1920s and early 1950s. To secure Zeila, he initiated a radical strategy of negotiating colonial power to exchange the Haud region for Zeila, which the current MoU is said to be centered on, and which is adjacent to Djibouti. Haud is a large swath of Somali territory and has been part of present-day Ethiopia since the Anglo-Ethiopian treaty of 1897 when Britain ceded it to Ethiopia for the latter’s support in suppressing Somali clans.10 That attempt failed, primarily because, based on strategic interests, the colonial powers— particularly Britain and Ethiopia—failed to reach an agreement. There was also fear of repercussions from Somalis in those areas.11 Recommendations For Somalia: It is imperative that Somalia actively assert its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Enhanced engagement with Somaliland is necessary, acknowledging the deep-seated aspirations for secession among some segments while aiming for a resolution that respects the collective will of all Somali people. Discussions should be approached with a vision for unity that accommodates diverse aspirations through inclusive governance, potentially offering broad autonomy to Somaliland. This approach would address fears of marginalization while preserving national unity and promoting cooperation For Somaliland: Somaliland needs to recognize that not all communities within its territory support secession. Negotiations should be guided by realism and pragmatism, aiming for an agreement that addresses Somaliland’s legitimate concerns while acknowledging the benefits of a united Somalia. This requires moving beyond the zero-sum mentality that has prevailed over the last thirty year For Ethiopia: Ethiopia’s demand for “sea access” does not justify infringing upon the sovereignty of another nation. Ethiopia is a landlocked country, and demanding territorial waters, a naval base, and a commercial port that belong to another country is an act of aggression. This could result in a prolonged conflict with Somalis both within Somalia and in the diaspora, as well as within Ethiopia itself. History has shown that Somalis have defended their territory against Ethiopian advances, notably forcing a retreat in 2006. Further, any attempt by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to cross into Somalia could significantly bolster al-Shabaab in a manner reminiscent of the group’s emergence following Ethiopia’s previous military ventures, which ended in failure. For the International Community: The international community must extend beyond mere affirmations of Somalia’s territorial integrity to actively discourage any actions that threaten Somalia’s sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity. A firmer stance against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s aggression is required, one that emphasizes the need to respect international laws and norms. Diplomatic pressure, along with offers of mediation and support for dialogue, should be pursued vigorously, as heightened nationalism and fear have created a conducive environment for conflict. For All Parties: International organizations such as the United Nations, African Union, Arab League, and Intergovernmental Authority on Development must recognize that the Memorandum of Understanding, as it stands, risks igniting an avoidable and unnecessary war. Such a conflict would likely result in the exponential and overnight metastasis of al-Shabaab, the largest and most resourceful Al-Qaeda affiliate in the Horn of Africa, and in the growth of ISIS, which has a foothold in Somalia. A cloud of war is hovering over the Horn, presenting a clear and present danger that necessitates action, not mere affirmation https://8v90f1.p3cdn1.secureserver.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Ethiopias-MoU-with-Somaliland-.pdf
  21. Hargeysa is just, but a part of N West, then there are N East, N Central, far North etc. Is XX reer Axmed of S Muse?
  22. You are still parroting the same diatribe as that of 20 years ago. You mean like this sharing of grants and aid? How does once city get more than all other regions put together? Or like this, a one jilib outfit. The list of the 6 #Taiwanese military scholarships and how they were tribally awarded. 2 scholarships: Reer Samatar, Sacad Muse, Gabiley Clan 2 scholarships: Jabriil Abokour, Sacad Muse, Gabiley Clan 2 scholarships: Isse Muse, Gabiley Clan https://twitter.com/RealSLVoice/status/1764174873591484596?s=20