June 11, 2017 #1945201
When Farmaajo was elected in early february, the Saudis were one the first countries that invited him to visit their country. No Somali leader for the last thirty years was accorded that much warmth and welcome which included the red carpet. Somali flags were flown throughout the Saudi capital. Everyone was asking why the the Saudis are doing this?. What is their intensions.
Since the collapse of the Somali state in 1991, the Saudis never extended any help to the suffering somalis. The only thing they exported to the nation was the ruthless Wahabi doctrine and their merciless followers which paved the way for the terrorist groups like Al-shabaab.
They asked the Somali president to join the Saudi led coalition that is battling the Houthis in Yemen. “If you join this coalition we will open the cheque books without limits” the Saudis said to Farmaajo. The president even confirmed last week by saying, ” The Saudis promised me $4 billion dollars and said that is just the beginning and it’s up to Somalia to organize its needs”. AS you can see money is not an issue for the Saudis. If they can throw $450 billion to TRump, few billions for these poor Somalis is probably a pocket change.
The Saudis knew what they wanted. They were probably preparing for the so called Arab NATO army that will burn the middle east for decades to come. Before they reach or go to war to Iran , they have to coerce the gulf nations and the poor countries in the horn of Africa like Sudan and Somalia. In 2014, they proposed a gulf army and some form of union between the monarchs of the gulf. The problem was most of the gulf countries objected this union for the fear of being absorbed by the largest country in the region. The sultanate of Oman, Kuwait and Qatar refused the union and the so called gulf army.
Every observer knows that the only foreign policy of the Saudis and their instrument to achieve their aim is to spend money and buy influence. They will give you the money, but in exchange ,they want total submission. Early this year Egyptian dictator Al-Sisi opened up dialogue with Iran by preferring Assad than the other Syrian insurgents. The SAudis noticed this change of heart from the dictator and moved swiftly. They immediately cancelled the 75,000 barrel of oil per month they feely ship to Egypt .Al-Sisi backed off immediately.
Somalia badly needs money for reconstruction of infrastructure, the formation of credible national army, schools, hospitals and many more things, but the Saudi money will be a poison pill that will eventually create dangerous consequences for Somalia. Despite the need for the money, the Somali government has taken the responsible route of trying to be neutral on these richman’s quarrell. This was a good and well balanced decision by the Somali leadership which showed resilience and independence. It reminds me of the Somalia of sixties that joined the non aligned movement. History will judge Farmaajo government better by making this responsible move.
THis club of despots and dictators will not last in this region. Al-Sisi, Cumar Gelle and the Saudis belong to one another. In 2014, Cumar Gelle pledged not to run for the fourth term ,but changed his mind and decided to stay for life. When he was asked the need for democracy he said, ” in this part of the world , the only people who our people accept is whether you are a prophet or dictator ,and I am neither of them”. Certainly he is not prophet , but he is definitely a dictator. Somalia does not belong to this club and must avoid regardless of the bribes they offer. Today, it seems that the only people using force to achieve their oppressive means are dictators, because the democratic nation do not try to invade nations for cynical reasons.
Now, what will be the consequences of rejecting the Saudi coalition?
Well, the first thing is that all the money pledged by the SAudis will dry up, and that should be always expected, but the larger issue is what kind of measures will they take to extract their revenge. Everyone should fear from this kind of people who are not only cruel ,but would blockade both people and commerce without no apparent conflict with them. It is just “Geeljire” arrogance in bigger scale. Imagine if these people had nuclear weapons?.
First, they might unleash their Wahabi friends who are well placed within Somali including large number of businesses financed by the gulf. THeses businesses might encourage and finance disgruntled Somali tribes and regions to undermine the government. This week the Djibouti aviation minister came to Hargeisa and encouraged the government to declare that the Somaliland air space is off limits to the civilian travels of Qatar Airlines. We all know that Somaliland neither has air force to enforce air blockade nor does it know which airline is crossing it’s airspace, yet it was all about publicity and being in the bandwagon to gain same favors. Tiny Djibouti has done it’s part.
Second , Al-shabaab could be paid more and enhanced to continue its campaign against Somalia and destabilize the country even more. In fact, a friend of mine told me this week that they already started and attacked Puntland when a large Al-shabaab contingent landed in the coastal regions of Puntland without notice. He said that the Galgala mountains are an active Al-shabaab base that is supplied through the sea by others. In March 2016, the commander of the Galgala contingent Sheikh Mohamed Atom was given asylum by the Qatari government and flown to Doha. These contacts by Qatar to bring the political wings of these movements or those who are willing to renounce violence is a diplomatic move by itself. Late last month, Qatar offered to mediate between Al-shabaab members and the Somali government. The Saudis want these wars to continue until they consume everyone.
The Galgala attack this week which claimed the death of many Puntland soldiers could be a message sent by those who do not wish any rapprochement between the Somali government and some members of the group who might prefer different route. Any reasonable person should know that this kind of insurgency could only be eliminated by parallel actions of peace seeking mechanism and military strength. You can not keep fighting a war that is pushed by many interest groups. If you jump on the so called war of “global terror fight” that destroys nations rather than saves them, you will be traveling a wrong way for a long time.
After sixteen years and trillions of dollars, the war against the Taliban is going on in Afghanistan without any change in sight. America is sending soldiers as we speak. If the most powerful army in the world can not subdue a ragtag insurgents in mountains, what makes you think that you can eliminate Al-shabaab which is getting it’s weapons from Ethiopia, Uganda, and others. Sometimes they just overrun an African garrison and take all the ammunition, while other times the Africans contingent in the strategic port of Merca would flee for three days which allows the insurgents to off load their shipments from their suppliers awaiting them at the ocean. Besides ,75% of the al-shabaab that is fighting close to the Kenyan borders are not even Somalis , but Swahilis and others.
Furthermore, do not be surprised that everyone has indirect contacts with the local insurgents. In Afghanistan , while the Canadians were manning the most difficult region of the country–Kandahar the birthplace of the Taliban–with constant causality ,stemming from the explosive devices buried in the roads, the Italians who were stationed east of Kabul suffered only few casualties for many years.
According to British media and others, “A Taliban commander and Afghan officials confirmed that Italian forces paid protection money in Sarobi, east of Kabul. But when French troops replaced the Italians last year, no one told them of the deal”.
The local Taliban assumed the agreement was over – and in August last year slaughtered 10 French soldiers. In contrast, the Italians lost one soldier in the whole of the previous year.
It is a dangerous world with so many competing interests. As soon as the Qatar blockade started, Iran’s parliament was attacked, Al-shabaab attacked Puntland and many more are to come. Do not be surprised if the bombing in Mogadishu increases ten fold.
The Somali leadership should know that the modern terrorism is more complicated than we ever seen. You must try to control your borders, ports and the internal movements of the foreign forces. Doing the same thing is insane. Find new techniques to reduce terror and built your strength, and finally , do not let others dictate to resolve your own problems.June 11, 2017 #1945207
This week the Djibouti aviation minister came to Hargeisa and encouraged the government to declare that the Somaliland air space is off limits to the civilian travels of Qatar Airlines. We all know that Somaliland neither has air force to enforce air blockade nor does it know which airline is crossing it’s airspace, yet it was all about publicity and being in the bandwagon to gain same favors. Tiny Djibouti has done it’s part.
I think you are mistaken Galbeedi. It is easy for Somaliland to enforce its decision. But I believe the decision is more symbolic than an actual ban of Qatari Airlines from using Somaliland’s skies.
For the record, Somaliland has access to Anti-Aircraft and SAM batteries which were part of the old Soviet installations in Berbera. These SAM batteries can easily be fired as a warning shot to any Qatari Airline. But I don’t think Somaliland will go to that level.
Anyway, the position that Farmaajo/Khaire taken will not go well with the Saudis. The Saudis really expect unconditional (no ifs, no buts) support behind it from the weak gov’t in Mogadishu. So any other position other than that expectation will be received as if Mogadishu has sided with Qatar & Turkey alliance .
So this neutrality position is just not there as far as the Saudis is concerned.
repostedJune 11, 2017 #1945208
These short-term alliances shift like sands in Arabia. It is better to stay clear if you are not in position to defend yourself politically, militarily and economically.
The Saudis made a short-term tactical move but strategically, this is a blunder. They overplayed their hand and the limits of their power is clear for everybody to see. They are no Iran. They along with American neocons and right-wingers in Israel need to accept Iran has a say what happens in ME.
Sensible Muslim countries have avoided their trap. Pakistan, the only nuclear-armed Muslim country, decided to stay neutral. They have their own sectarian problem with minority Shia problem, Taliban and Balochi separatists on Iran border. They have the Kashmir issue, but more importantly, they are part of China’s new silk road project with port at Gawder, billions of Chinese money in transportation infrastructure, power plants, etc. Pakistan is focusing its energy in defending these resources. They are no longer as dependent on Saudi Arabia as they used to be. Besides, Pakistanis realized Saudis lack the basic understanding of war and diplomacy. Saudi Arabia is not entrenched state like Iran with institutions.
The Saudis are stuck in Yemen. [the generals conducting the Yemen war are Pakistanis; it is said they told Saudis the war is futile but the younger Salman is hell bent on continuing war]. Kuwait and Oman are on side lines. The Saudis have no influence in Iraq and the money put into destabilizing Syria is not paying off. Even Dubai is weary of the Saudis [it is Abu Dhabi that is openly siding with the Saudis].
As for Somalia, they made a good decision. I hope they stick with it. The only Arab entity that heavily invested in Somalia is Dubai Emirate. I don’t really seem them punishing Somalia as they are in serious competition with China in buying ports along the new silk road. Xasan Sakiin is in Dubai to hand over Barawe Port.
The last time Somalia went along with a Saudi plan, they were promised 50 million dollars to break ties with Iran. That money was never paid. Somalis should widen their search for partners and not depend on Gulf nations. And as weak as we are at the moment, it is good to exercise your sovereignty when you can, it is amazing how the behavior of others change when they say put up some fight.
A Qatari delegation was in Xamar today. Qataris must understand they can no longer support terrorists in Somalia.,
Apparently Saudi Arabia did send a delegation as well. They offered Somalia 80 million dollars, but Somalia turned it down.June 11, 2017 #1945210
The Saudis are not even good at PR
June 11, 2017 #1945213
- This reply was modified 1 week, 6 days ago by Che -Guevara.
Qatar, in regional crisis, hires former U.S. attorney generalJune 11, 2017 #1945214
inta badan somalida ka faaloota arimaha iqliimaga ama dawladaha kale dhex mara waxay ka qoraan faalooyin aad u dheer oo anfacaysa dadkay khusayso una malayn maayo in somaliaonline tahay meeshii ku haboonayd.
usoo noqo mowduuca
carabta siyaasad lama waydiiyo waxaa la waydiiyaa dhaqaale waana la ilaashadaa sidaad moodaysaan uma sii qodna.
tusaale yar yaan kuusoo qaadaya
sacuudugu somaliya wuxuu u balan qaaday soo dhawayn fiican ka dib inuu kaabayaasha dhaqaalaha wax ka qabto si walaaltinimo leh ,looma akhriyi karo siyaasad dhaw iyo mid fog waayo waa dad daruufaysan una baahan in wax lala qabto faras jaban kooro lama saaro
isku dhici qatar wuxuu sharuud ka dhigay si dhaqaalihii u bixiyo in xiriirka loo jaro qatar.
qatar iyo somaliya waxba kama dhaxeeyaan waana ceeb iyo dhaqan xumo in shilimo dartood aad mara isaga tuurto,waana imtixaan lagugu qiimayn karo markii roobku da’o.
puntland iyo snm waxay bilaabeen inay dawladeeyaan ayagoo ku andacoonaya in awoowayashood u dhoofi jireen imaaraadka,dekadahana loo dhisayo.
su’aasha is waydiinta leh waxaa weeye
maamul qabiileed hadduu yeesho soohdin gaara oo cirka iyo dhulka marta soo maahan in marka hore sharuucda caalamka la waafajiyo ama magacyo cusub loo sameeyo si ay ugu meel maraan ama danahooda gaarka ula yeeshaan dawlado kale?
Ninkaan suldaanka sheegtay sawaariikhda SAM waa qadiim adeer sawirkooda oo rinji la mariyay unbaad aragtay wax cirka loo ridi karo ma’ahan dawladdi hore yaa ka tagtay ayaga iyo diyaaradda darbiga la saaray.
waxaana ku talin lahaa in laga fogeeyo carruurta iyo guryaha la seexdo.
waxaan aad usoo dhawaynayaa aragtidayda mowqifka dawladda soomaaliya qaadatay oo ka turjumaysa karaamada iyo dadnimadu inaysan shilimo ku xirnayn,dhexdhexaadna ka ahaato dad wada dhashay oo is haya
Waa baahanahay bakhti looma cuno
Arrad waa dan uskagna waa doqonimo
Waa la doogoobiye yaan la dacaroon.June 12, 2017 #1945215
Maryooley sida uu Galbeedi sheegay, waxa ay dawladnimadeda ku bilaabatay dhex dhexaad iyo xiriir wanaagsan oo quwadaha aduunka isku herdinaya lala yeesho. Labada quwadood ee jiray lixdamaadkii, labadaba xiriir fiican ayey Somaliya la laheyd. Waxa si sharaf iyo maamuus sare leh loogu soo dhaweynayey madaxdena Washington iyo Moscow hadba midka ay booqdaan.
Meesha cuqubadu ka timi waa markii Geeljire u dalacay Askari uu wadanka xoog ku qabsaday. Halkii dunida oo dhan xiriir fiican aanu lawada laheyn, waxa uu habeen madow 72 Pact oo isa soo qaawin ah la saxiixday Soviet . Halka ay ku danbeysay arintaas sanado yar kadibna waa tan maanta Maryooley ay miraheeda weli guraneyso.
Waxa layaab ah, in Odayga Hargeysa hadda fadhiya uu kamid ahaa waqtigaa wasiiradii u sacbinayey waalidaa. Hadana asagoo sideetan madaxa ka jaray, waxba kama baran taariikhda uu u soo fadhiyey ee halaaga iyo hadimaha laga dhaxlay.
Way fiicantahay, waana arin lagu farxo in siyaasad dhex dhexaad ah oo aan cidna jeebka loo gelin dowladan ay qaadato. Walow aysan ii muuqan in tabarteeda iyo dulqaadkeeda arintaas lahayo waqtigan.
Ugu yaraan maalmahan tii Xasan ee Uncle Tom u ekeyd waanu ka yaraha nasanay 🙂June 12, 2017 #1945218
This was the best ever decision by the Farmaajo government, These guys are much closer and am surprised how stupid and badly they are treating QATAR, , imagine why they could do if they have the chance to SOMALIA.
Saudis, and their sidekick UAE are really angry how much influence this tiny nation of QATAR has.
3 somali ministers who went to Riyad last week, met junior officers, instead of their counterparts, No single dollar will come off SAUDI Arabia, they are really bad , and we better stay away from them and stay neutral.
Last 2 years alone, Saudis gave $30 billions dollars to Egypt, and ship many oil tankers for free,
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